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One of my favorite times of the year is writing the Seattle Seahawks pre-NFL Draft Reports. I’ve already nailed it down with these notable Seahawks draft picks: Byron Murphy II, Christian Haynes, Tyrice Knight, Devon Witherspoon, Zach Charbonnet, Olu Oluwatimi, Kenny McIntosh, Boye Mafe, Abe Lucas, Riq Woolen, to name a few from the last three years.
We’re still in Year 2 of Mike Macdonald, so it’s still early to set trends, just like it was under Pete Carroll. Obviously, John Schneider isn’t in charge yet and should follow some of these guidelines.
We’ll be keeping a few players in mind between now and the draft, including Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough.
Let’s go to the Report!
Prospect Info
Name: Tyler Shough
Jersey #: 5
College: Louisville Cardinals
Position: QB
Awards:
Honorable mention All-Atlantic Coast Conference (2024);
NCAA football Comeback Player of the Year Award (2024).
Class: Redshirt Super Senior
Style: Pocket Passer
Comparison: Sam Darnold
Projection: Late 3rd round
Stats
2024: 12 G, 244-389 (62.7%), 3195 YDS, 8.2 Y/A, 23 TD, 6 INT, 148 RTG; 42 RUNS, 19 YDS, 1 TD
2023: 4 G, 67-111 (60%), 746 YDS, 6.7 Y/A, 7 TD, 4 INT, 130 RTG; 48 RUNS, 149 YDS, 2 TD
2022: 7 G, 106-177 (60%), 1304 YDS, 7.4 Y/A, 7 TD, 4 INT, 130 RTG; 72 RUNS, 269 YDS, 4 TD
2021: 4 G, 64-92 (69.6%), 872 YDS, 9.5 Y/A, 6 TD, 3 INT, 164 RTG; 16 RUNS, 14 YDS, 2 TD
2020: 7 G, 106-167 (63.5%), 1559 YDS, 9.3 Y/A, 13 TD, 6 INT, 160 RTG; 66 RUNS, 271 YDS, 2 TD
2019: 5 G, 12-15 (80%), 144 YDS, 9.6 Y/A, 3 TD, 0 INT, 226 RTG; 2 RUNS, 11 YDS, 0 TD
2018: 3 G
Combine/Pro Day Results
HT 6’5
WT 219
Arms: 30’ 3/4”
Wingspan N/A
Hands 9’ 3/4”
40 yds 4,63
10 yd split 1,64
Short Shuttle: N/A
3 Cone Drill: N/A
VJ 32”
BJ 9’ 9’’
Bench Press N/A
RAS: 9.53
Background
Tyler Shough (pronounced “shuck”) is coming to the NFL after spending seven years in college. He will begin his NFL journey at the age of 26. He was in the same high school class as Trevor Lawrence and was Justin Herbert’s backup at Oregon, where he began his career. After leaving Oregon as a grad transfer following being benched for the Fiesta Bowl, Shough had stints at Texas Tech and Louisville, where he finished his 32-game NCAA career.
Evaluating the prospect…
Injuries and age
After transferring from Oregon to Texas Tech in 2021, he was named the starting QB, but he suffered a broken collarbone and missed the rest of the season. In 2022, Shough returned after was decided that he would allow the bone heal without surgery, and was once again named the team’s starter — though he only lasted a quarter before another shoulder injury (this time with a surgery to repair) sidelined him until late October.
Shough returned for a sixth year of eligibility thanks to his redshirt season and COVID-19 exemption, but lasted just four games before a broken fibula (in a hip-drop tackle against West Virginia) ended his season and required surgery. The QB entered the transfer portal for a second time on a medical exemption and landed at Louisville, where he finally had a fully healthy campaign in 2024.
Injuries are a big red flag in themselves. However, Seattle will bring him in for a 30-game visit where, in theory, the team can assess the impact of that history. The bigger problem is that the injuries meant he only had one “real” season, even though he played seven years in college.
Of course, that gave Shough the opportunity to work in different schemes and with different OCs, but it’s almost like he has the on-field experience of a RS Sophomore, only at 26 years old.
Decision Making/Under Pressure
Shough’s numbers under pressure are dichotomous; they seem like different players:
42% completion rate when pressured (#2 worst in the QB class, ahead of only Max Brosmer);
58% completion rate when hit (#2 worst in the QB class, ahead of only Jalen Milroe).
However, last season against the blitz, he completed 80 of 137 passes for 1,146 yards, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 108.7 passer rating. He is adept at spotting and exploiting the holes in coverage left by additional rushers.
What explains this is pre-snap identification. When Shough makes this diagnosis before the snap, the result is something positive. However, when he is caught off guard by a stunt, twist, or delayed blitz, he boasts the numbers of Brosmer and Milroe.
Under pressure, he tries to avoid the sack at all costs. Here, he looked before throwing the ball. Sometimes he succeeds.
Other times, the result is disastrous. I don’t think even Will Levis, who was an incredible turnover machine last year, would throw this. The blitz comes late with the LB, instead of accepting the sack, he throws the ball up without even looking and goes towards two Stanford defenders. Of course, the ideal is to avoid big hits, especially when you’ve had at least 3 serious injuries in your career. But, that’s not the right way to do it.
Unlike the first play, where he at least looked, here he tries to release the pass even with the defender engaged on him and taking him to the ground. The pass could even have gone backwards, too much risk taken.
He’s not afraid to make long passes and in tight windows, which is a good thing. The problem is that both receivers seemed to be running to the same place, which helped the defenders, and Shough threw without the torque of his legs, which made him lose accuracy and leave the ball hanging.
The problem is that here (perhaps due to unidentified pre-snap pressure) he places the ball in the wrong place. Note that the receiver is cutting inside, with the intention of attacking the open space. Shough’s pass doesn’t go in that direction, the WR tries to adjust, but the pass goes much more in the direction of the defense.
Anticipation (or lack thereof)
A good QB doesn’t just pass the ball to his open receivers, he passes the ball to the receivers who will be open. Shough is not an anticipatory thrower, per se. Here he doesn’t realize that the receiver will be open, and still takes a while to make the decision. His strong arm helped, but inevitably in the NFL he wouldn’t have gotten that “second chance” on the play.
He does an excellent job of taking the safety out of this play by threatening the verticality. However, seeing the decision the CB made to defend the flat, his stance should have been to switch to the out route even before the receiver cut. It may seem like a nitpick, but in the NFL, sometimes that extra millisecond is the difference between a sack and a big advance.
He seems to have potential for better anticipation with more training. In this type of play, the pass has to leave the QB’s hand BEFORE the WR makes the cut on the comeback route. Otherwise, it gives the defender a chance to cut the passing lane. Shough completes the pass correctly.
Processing
Shough has the ability to work in progressions and comfortably throw to his second and third reads, even when the defense changes the post-snap image. Here he works from the go route to the skinny post and then to the dig route on the backside.
He lost an open receiver because he got stuck on this read, which didn’t look promising right after the snap. The WR wanted to force the inside leverage, but the defender did the opposite, not giving him any space to complete the pass.
The processing catches my attention more than the sack he suffered. Apparently, Louisville called a Double Smash, while the defense used a coverage with two safeties deep in the field. The read here is quick, based on high-low, if the deep route is open, pass the ball, otherwise, look for the short route. The offense’s formation is 3×2, I don’t know why Shough was stuck on the left side where there were three defenders against two receivers. The right side has an additional receiver that left the defense one-on-one. It was something easy to identify pre-snap. There was a route that was open but Shough never got to that read.
Here we have something more common for Shough. Based on what he sees before the snap in the defense’s positioning and, knowing the WR’s routes, he basically knows that he has to read the number 11. The offense aims to stress his zone and he will have to choose one of the routes to cover. The off alignment of the safety and the CB allow for this space. Shough reads it correctly and completes a great pass.
On the previous play, he still flirted with being sacked, but here he was basically perfect. He has a LB against a TE who is going to run an outside route, where he has total leverage, especially because the LB is aligned too far inside. He knows this is the best matchup he has and makes the connection quickly.
Focus on the process, not the result. He quickly reads the matchups on the left side of the offense and navigates to the backside dig. Incredible work. Unfortunately, the WR drops the pass and it turns into an interception.
He takes too long to position himself and set up his base after the play action, so he ends up losing the window to the TE in the middle of the field. He misses this opportunity, but manages to move on to his next read and convert.
Arm Strength/Accuracy
When Shough throws from the lower body up consistently, he has the arm to make any throw to any part of the field – with speed, touch, and timing. His arm talent is unquestionable when the mechanics are right.
He steps into the pocket, holds off the safety to create space for the receiver, and throws a bomb that lands in the receiver’s lap with ease.
Shough runs away from the collapse of the pocket and buys time until he finds an open man. He keeps his eyes on the red zone and finds a receiver. He has to throw against his body movement and gets the touchdown.
He works under center (something rare among QBs who are going to the draft this year) and after the roll-out he needs to make a throw against the movement. The pass arrives with speed and on the opposite sideline, more than 40 yards ahead.
He makes the CB hesitate with two of the two threats that exist in his area. The pass goes into the receiver’s lap and allows him to still remain in motion.
Athletic Ability
I confess that after watching his tape, I thought his numbers on the ground would be better. Not that he is a dual-threat, but he has good speed and is strong.
Good movement to escape pressure but he has poor footwork. The ball would have to go close to the sideline to give the receiver a chance, however, it comes inside and had more chance of being an interception than a reception.
Shough can extend plays by design and when things break down, and when he squares his shoulders to the target, he can make accurate throws deep down the field. Going back to what we talked about in one of the previous topics, before the snap Shough notices the blitz and thus, he handles it in a way that makes him look like another player.
This is a play that is certainly in every Shough highlight video. He escapes the pressure well, advances into the pocket and throws a strong pass over the defender. Fantastic.
STRENGTHS:
– Size / weight / length for the position.
– Arm strength;
– Can throw off platform and from different angles;
– Intangible characteristics such as leadership;
– Has known different offensive schemes;
WEAKNESSES:
– Lack of anticipation;
– Worrying history of injuries;
– He will be a 26-year-old rookie;
– He has an aggressive mentality that makes him commit unnecessary turnovers;
Final Thoughts
I wouldn’t be crazy if the Seahawks drafted Shough. I just hope the team doesn’t do that with their first three picks, especially the 18th. Teams were very impressed with his work at the Combine and now the rumors are that Shough could be selected on Day 1 by the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think that would be insane.
Also, the plan for QB is to find a replacement for Darnold and take advantage of the opportunities that his contract has. I can’t have faith that Shough can be that guy, given his limited potential, in addition to the injuries being a concern. Shough seems like the kind of QB that shows up in the Draft every other year, who has the potential to be a good backup if the team needs him, but it’s not that common for these guys to go very far in the NFL.
