Courtesy of a new energy store and a track limits violation Leclerc starts form 19th on today’s grid which means that, barring a miracle, Ferrari’s hopes of the constructors’ title are in ruins.
Of course, even in F1, miracles do happen, however let’s be honest and admit that Ferrari – not for the first time – compromised its championship hopes much, much earlier in the season, courtesy of the usual strategic mistakes and also a few by its drivers, mainly, as it happens, the Monegasque.
Consequently, the title is McLaren’s to throw away and like miracles major cock ups can also happen.
So with that in mind perhaps we should sit back and enjoy what unfolds, hopeful that at least Sainz can sign off in style.
The big miracle, of course, would be for Hamilton to depart Mercedes with a final win, but surely, with the seven-time world champion starting 16th, this would even be beyond the scriptwriters at F1 HQ… though we hear that old rascal Turk Thrust has been spotted hanging around Mayfair.
Having secured his fourth title we should have been anticipating Verstappen take Red Bull to the team title once again, but thanks to the lack of assistance from his teammate third will have to do.
Despite Perez’ insistence that he will be in the Red Bull next season, there is talk that the Mexican may take the opportunity today to announce his retirement, then again there is also talk of Max ‘doing a Rosberg’.
The midfield has been tight all weekend and therefore this is where the real action will be, especially that fight between Alpine, Haas and RB for sixth, the American team looking particularly strong so far this weekend.
It would be good to see Magnussen and Bottas sign off with a few points, while Williams will be happy merely to see its drivers make it to the flag.
Sadly, today’s race is likely to be a single stop, running the medium and then the hard, is the most likely strategy, with a pit window between laps 18 and 24.
However, those starting further back – Leclerc, Hamilton – might want to extend a first stint on the hard, pitting between laps 29 and 35.
There are however three factors that could open the door to a two-stop race: possibly greater degradation than we have seen so far, a neutralisation, or more plausible, drivers who find themselves in traffic deciding to pit early to try and exploit the clear advantage of having a new set of tyres for the first few laps after the stop. This could trigger a chain reaction, leading teams to switch to a two-stop strategy. That was the case last year, when all the teams with the exception of the Alpha Tauris had kept two sets of new hards.
The pitlane opens and the drivers begin to head out.
Before a wheel has turned in anger Magnussen has been noted for a practice start infringement. Of course, his teammate was hit with a three-place grid penalty for overtaking in the pitlane in qualifying.
As the national anthem plays the air temperature is 27 degrees C, while the track temperature is 32 degrees.
With McLaren having told its drivers that they are free to race, Ferrari will be secretly hoping it might end in tears.
All are starting on mediums bar Hamilton who is on hards. Fresh rubber for all bar Russell, Alonso and Stroll.
They head off on the formation lap.
“Thank you for this, thank you for the memories,” says Colapinto.
“Thank you Sauber, thank you Ferrari. Let’s do it,” says Bottas.
The grid forms.
They’re away! Good starts from both McLarens, while Stroll makes a lighting getaway from thirteenth.
Norris leads into Turn 1, while Verstappen is on the inside of Piastri. They touch, sending both into a spin.
Spinning 360 Verstappen is able to continue as though nothing has happened while Piastri is off track and facing the wrong way. Sainz does well to lead the pack through the melee.
Verstappen continues in 13th while the Australian is last.
“I was super unlucky,” says the Dutchman. So what was Piastri one might ask.
“Move of a world champion,” says the Australian.
More drama for Red Bull at Turn 6, as Perez spins after being hit by Bottas. Both are able to continue.
Leclerc is up to 12th, up 11 places, while Magnussen is up 7 and Hamilton 4. Tsunoda has dropped 6, and of course Piastri has dropped 17.
At the end of Lap 1, it’s: Norris, Sainz, Gasly, Russell, Hulkenberg, Alonso, Magnussen, Leclerc, Stroll, and Lawson.
Shortly after Norris crosses the line at the end of the opening lap, the VSC is deployed as Perez stops on track.
The VSC is withdrawn and Russel is all over Gasly. He appears to get by but the Frenchman slams the door. Further back, Piastri runs into the back of Colapinto under braking.
As Colapinto slows with a left-rear puncture, Bottas has been noted for the Perez clash. The Verstappen/Piastri incident is being investigated.
Norris leads Sainz by 2.5s, as Piastri pits with a damaged front wing. However, they only change the tyres.
Verstappen is given a 10s penalty for causing a collision.
“Woo,” giggles Leclerc when told that he is P8.
Bottas pits at the end of Lap 6, having been given a 10s penalty.
Piastri posts a new fastest lap (28.950) as he hunts down countryman Doohan.
“Good,” says Piastri of Verstappen’s penalty, however the Australian is under investigation for the Colapinto clash.
Lap 8 sees a new fastest lap from Norris (28.860) as he builds a 3s lead over Sainz who is 3.6s clear of Gasly.
Piastri is given a 10s penalty.
Leclerc closes on Alonso, the Monegasque making short work of the Spaniard.
On Lap 10 Zhou is noted for a false start.
A number of drivers are racking up the track violations, and with just 11 laps completed we could be seeing some penalties later in the race. Indeed, Leclerc is on his third strike.
Stroll pits at the end of Lap 11.
Leclerc passes Hulkenberg for fifth.
“They’ve got no pace,” says Hamilton as he passes Lawson.
Magnussen, Zhou and Albon all pit at the end of Lap 12. It’s a poor stop for the Dane who rejoins in 15th.
