Forget Christmas as the ‘most wonderful time of the year’ – it’s time for the 2024 Super Netball finals. It took until the last few minutes of Round 14 to confirm that Thunderbirds, Vixens, and Fever would be ranked first through third respectively, with Lightning creeping into fourth place.
So let’s set the scene: last year’s premiers and this season’s minor premiers, Thunderbirds, look to be in the box seat to take out back-to-back titles after a red-hot run of form that’s seen them win six games in a row, by an average of 15 points. The super consistent Vixens sit in second place but have lost two of their last three matches and three of their previous four finals matches. Fever have integrated six new players into their club, defying most pundits who predicted they’d end outside the mix. And Lightning, despite some brilliant recruiting, have only just managed to sneak into fourth with a meager six wins but pushed Thunderbirds all the way last weekend.
And if you’re a stats nerd and want the most accurate win indicator, keep an eye on the magic number of 75. Champion Data has crunched the numbers, and if a side converts more than 75% of their center passes, they have a 90% chance of winning. Less than 75%, that figure drops to just 29%. And any side that has converted more than 78% this season has won their match – every single time!
So just where will the finals be won and lost?
Adelaide Thunderbirds – 2023 premiers. Image: Aleisha Vicars
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MAJOR SEMI FINAL
Adelaide Thunderbirds v Melbourne Vixens
Adelaide 36ers Arena, Adelaide
Saturday, July 20
5pm AEST (4:30pm local time)
Previous clashes
Round 2: Vixens 54 def Thunderbirds 53 at John Cain Area
This match was close all the way. After struggling for some of the game, Kiera Austin really stood up in the final quarter and led Vixens to victory, finally getting the winning goal with just four seconds to go. POTM Kate Moloney
Round 12: Thunderbirds 73 def Vixens 58 at Adelaide Entertainment Centre
After a close beginning, Thunderbirds got on top in the second quarter and dominated from there. Their defense provided the ball and their attack capitalized, producing their highest ever score. POTM Shamera Sterling-Humphrey
WHY THEY CAN WIN
Thunderbirds:
The Thunderbirds are undefeated in Adelaide this season, and this will be their second home game in a row, reducing their travel burden. They also have experience on their side, with every player barring Lauren Frew having played finals before.
Coach Tania Obst has been preparing her team for finals all season, slowly but surely building a new look attacking end, while also testing multiple combinations all across the court. Every position has at least two players who’ve nailed what’s needed from them.
Thunderbirds quite simply are the best defensive team in the league, bar none. The two superstars, Shamera Sterling-Humphrey and Latanya Wilson, are ably supported by every other player on court, while the value of Tilly Garrett’s shut down game is often overlooked. We’ve also seen Tayla Williams spend short stints at wing attack – a move that could potentially be a masterstroke, given that it allows for five players on court who can all win serious amounts of ball.
Romelda Aiken-George would have to be one of the most consistent players of all time – she rarely has a bad game and has filled her role at goal shooter to perfection.
The Georgie Horjus factor! The goal attack/wing attack has incredible attacking nous and has appeared unflappable since she arrived on the scene. Thunderbirds’ poorest performance of the year came against the lowly-ranked Firebirds in round 8 when Georgie Horjus was out through injury.
Vixens:
The Vixens shooting combination of Sophie Garbin and Kiera Austin is one of the most potent in the league. The Diamonds duo have developed a strong partnership across the season, and both are happy to shoot long. Having twin threats from range makes them very hard to defend during the super shot period, and they’ve claimed a total of 86 this season, compared to the Thunderbirds’ more lowly 34.
Vixens have one of the tallest backlines in the league, although it came about through the unfortunate injury to Kate Eddy. With her missing, Rudi Ellis has stepped up at goal keeper, Jo Weston has been a menace at wing defense, and Emily Mannix is having one of the seasons of her life, mainly at goal defense.
At center, Kate Moloney just doesn’t make errors. She has had just 29 turnovers this season. She also leads the competition in pickups with 31. Some pundits wondered how she’d go feeding the circle in Liz Watson’s absence, but she’s taken the added pressure on her shoulders and handled it beautifully.
The Vixens have had their full ten just once all season due to injuries to a range of players and have shown they can cope with the unexpected beautifully.
The Thunderbirds backline can do a number on anyone. Image and ©clixbymia_©Mia_Mammoliti_
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WHERE THEY WILL BE CHALLENGED
Thunderbirds:
Having re-injured her troublesome ankle in Round 14, Lauren Frew is in a race against time to be fit for finals. And if she is absent, it does restrict the Thunderbirds circle rotations, given that both Romelda Aiken-George and Lucy Austin are most suited at goal shooter. For a rookie Frew has been remarkable, holding down the starting shooter position and playing with composure.
The supershot is a double-edged sword for the Thunderbirds. They’ve barely used it all season and haven’t needed to. So in a close final, how will they fit it into their playing structures? When these teams met in Round 2, Vixens got the edge, scoring eight supershots, while Thunderbirds failed to score even one.
The Thunderbirds’ form has been so impressive in the second half of the season, they haven’t had many close matches. This would have been a problem, but they received a good wake-up call against Lightning in the final round. With top spot on the line, they toughed it out and just held on after a scare.
In previous years, Thunderbirds have been guilty of squandering the ball won by their defense. That has been a big improvement in the past two seasons, but their gain-to-goal rate is still the lowest out of all four finals teams.
Vixens:
While the Vixens have – through necessity – used players across a range of positions, the one area in which they have little depth is goal attack. Kiera Austin has been in strong form all season, but she’ll need to be wrapped in cotton wool across the finals.
It’s no big secret where the danger lies for the Vixens. That Thunderbirds’ defensive back three is clearly the best in the league. In the two matches between the teams this year, Thunderbirds have racked up 39 possession gains, and 38 of them have come from just those three players. It is a huge task for Vixens to overcome them.
In Round 13, Fever showed just how to rattle Sophie Garbin. She gave up five general play turnovers in her 30 minutes on court and shot 17/19. While Lily Graham stood up beautifully, finishing with 17/25, Vixens will want their goal shooter firing.
While the Vixens have experience all over court, they have lost three of their last four finals matches played, which could be a weight on their minds.
Surprisingly, Vixens have given away more contact penalties than any other team in the league, and around 10 per match more than the Thunderbirds. They’ll need to stay in play if they want to win.
Vixens take out the Sargeant-McKinnis Cup for 2024. Image Shaun Sharp/Sporting Moments by Shaun
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QUIET ACHIEVER
Thunderbirds: For a first-year player, Lauren Frew has stood up beautifully. The Thunderbirds starting goal attack since Round 1, Frew has played substantial minutes and more than held her own against some of the league’s toughest defenders. In a shooting end that was expected by many to struggle, Frew has been a good foil to Romelda Aiken-George.
Vixens: After just 25 minutes of court time across the season, Lily Graham came on in round 13 against the Fever and almost blew them away with her two-point shooting. Graham finished with 6/9 supershots at 66%, making her a very valuable, if not so secret, weapon anymore.
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A FEW KEY MATCH-UPS
Shamera Sterling-Humphrey v Sophie Garbin
While Garbin has largely been reliable for most of the season, both Sterling-Humphrey and Fever’s Kadie-Ann Dehaney have been able to rattle Gar
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