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The Celtics complete their 7 game home stand as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in what may be a Finals preview. This is the second, and final, regular season game between these two teams. The Celtics lost 105-92 in Oklahoma City on January 5. The Celtics were held to just 27 points in the second half in that game. They tied the series 1-1 last season, with each team winning at home. The Celtics are 79-67 overall all time against the Thunder and they are 40-29 in games played in Boston.
The Thunder made several key moves in the off season. The biggest move may have been signing Isaiah Hartenstein away from the NY Knicks. He has especially been important due to the absence of Chet Holmgren. They also traded Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso. They drafted Nikola Topic, who will miss the entire season with a torn ACL. They also drafted Dillon Jones and Ajay Mitchell, with an eye to the future. Finally, they signed undrafted Alex Ducas to a 2 way contract.
At the trade deadline, the Thunder made minor moves and kept their core players the same. Most of their moves revolved around draft pick management. They traded cash considerations to New Orleans for Daniel Theis and a 2nd round pick. Theis was then waived by the Thunder. They converted Ajay Mitchell from a two-way to a standard deal. Finally, Branden Carlson was signed to a 2 way contract.
The Celtics are 2nd in the East, and are 8 games behind the first place Cavaliers who have won their last 15 games, including a win over Boston. They are 5.5 games ahead of 3rd place New York and they are 10.5 games ahead of 4th place Milwaukee. The Celtics are 23-11 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are 15-7 against Western Conference opponents. The Celtics have won their last 5 games.
The Thunder are 1st in the Western Conference. They are 11 games ahead of second place Denver. They are 12 games ahead of both the 3rd place Los Angeles Lakers and 4th place Memphis. The Thunder are 24-7 on the road and 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are 21-1 against Eastern Conference opponents, with their only loss coming against Cleveland. They are coming off a loss to Denver in their last game after having won their previous 7 games.
The Celtics are playing in the final game of a 7 game home stand. They lost the first game to the Cleveland Cavaliers and then beat the Denver Nuggets, Portland Trailblazers, 76ers, Lakers and Jazz in the next 5 games. After this game against Oklahoma City, the Celtics will play at Miami before a home and home set against Brooklyn. They then have a 6 game Western road trip through Utah, Portland, Sacramento, Phoenix, San Antonio and Memphis. They play 5 of their last 7 games at home.
The Thunder are coming off back to back games at home against Denver where they won the first game and lost the second. This is the first game of a 3 game road trip that will continue through Detroit and Milwaukee. They will return home for 2 games against Philadelphia and Charlotte before playing the Clippers and Kings on the road. They then have a 4 game home stand against Memphis, Indians, Chicago and Detroit. They have 4 of their last 6 games on the road with both of the home games against the Lakers.
After missing Monday’s game, Al Horford has been cleared to play in this game and is expected to play. Jaylen Brown has been dealing with knee soreness but is listed as probable for this game. Jayson Tatum missed Monday’s game due to right knee tendinopathy and is listed as questionable for this game. I’m going to guess that he will play. Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last 7 games due to a viral illness and is questionable for this game as well.
The Thunder will be missing a key starter as well. Jaylen Williams, who is the Thunder’s second leading scorer, left Monday’s game in the 2nd quarter with a right hip strain. He has been ruled out for this game. Ajay Mitchell has been sidelined since early January after suffering a sprain of his right big toe and having surgery and he is out for this game. Nikola Topic is out for the season after knee surgery. Alex Caruso was a late addition to the injury list and is questionable with an illness.
Probable Celtics Starters
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PG: Jrue HolidaySG: Derrick WhiteSF: Jaylen BrownPF: Jayson TatumC: Al Horford
Celtics ReservesPayton PritchardNeemias QuetaLuke KornetBaylor ScheiermanJordan WalshXavier TillmanSam HauserTorrey Craig
2 Way PlayersJD DavisonDrew PetersonMiles Norris
Injuries/OutDrew Peterson (thigh) questionableKristaps Porzingis (illness) questionable Jayson Tatum (knee) questionableJaylen Brown (knee) probable
Head CoachJoe Mazzulla
Probable Thunder Starters
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PG: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderSG: Cason WallaceSF: Lugentz DortPF: Chet HolmgrenC: Isaiah Hartenstein
Thunder ReservesOusmane DiengIsaiah JoeDillon JonesAaron WigginsJaylin WilliamsKenrich Williams
2 Way PlayersAlex Ducas Adam FlaglerBranden Carlson
Injuries/OutAjay Mitchell (toe) outNikola Topic (knee) out Jalen Williams (hip) out Alex Caruso (illness) questionable
Head Coach Mark Daigneault
Key Matchups
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Jrue Holiday vs Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. He is shooting 52.5% from the field and 37.3% from beyond the arc. In the first game in OKC, SGA finished with 33 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks while shooting 47.8% from the field and 50% on threes. Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite in the MVP race and is the key to the Thunder’s winning ways. In order to slow the Thunder, the Celtics must slow down SGA.
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Jayson Tatum vs Chet HolmgrenHolmgren is averaging 14.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 2 blocks per game. He is shooting 48.8% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. Holmgren can score both in the paint and on the perimeter and so the Celtics must stay with him on defense whether he is in the paint or on the perimeter. Jayson Tatum has been playing very well recently and hopefully he will be able to play in this game and will continue his strong play.
Honorable MentionAl Horford vs Isaiah HartensteinHartenstein is averaging 11.1 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.0 blocks per game. He is shooting 59.1% from the field and 0% from beyond the arc. He is a threat to score inside and is a very good rebounder and shot blocker. The Celtics need to keep him out of the paint and away from the rim.
Keys to the GameDefense – Defense is always a key to winning. The Thunder average 119.7 points per game (4th) The Celtics average 116.9 points per game (7th). This is going to be a tough matchup for the Celtics as the Thunder are first in the league with a defensive rating of 106.1 while the Celtics are 5th with a defensive rating of 110.1. The Celtics need to tighten up their defense and make playing defense a priority especially against this Thunder team that plays lock down defense. The Celtics need to especially defend the paint since the Thunder are 8th in the league with 51 points in the paint per game. But, they also can’t leave them open on the perimeter since they attempt 39.1 threes per game and make 36.7% of them as a team.
Rebound – Rebounding is also a big key to winning. The Celtics need to rebound on the defensive end to keep the Thunder from getting second chance points and they need to rebound on the offensive end to give themselves extra possessions. The Thunder are 13th with 44.7 rebounds per game while the Celtics are 10th with 45.0 rebounds per game. The Celtics are 29-5 when they out-rebound opponents and they are 18-13 when they are out-rebounded. Much of rebounding is desire and effort and the Celtics as a team have to put in the extra effort to grab rebounds.
Take Care of the Ball – The Celtics need to keep their focus and not turn the ball over. The Thunder are 1st in the league with 22.1 points off turnovers per game. They are also 1st with 10.7 steals per game. The Celtics have to move the ball because they are a much better team when they move the ball and don’t over dribble. But they must focus and make careful passes and not get sloppy. They also have to be aware when dribbling the ball so as not to allow the Thunder to get steals. The Thunder will make them pay if they get sloppy and turn the ball over.
Be Focused and Ready for a Tough Game – The Thunder have lost just one game to an Eastern Conference team this season. They have also only lost 12 games. The Celtics have to be ready to go to the basket if they struggle from three. They also have to be ready to shoot from midrange if both the paint and the perimeter are defended tightly. The Celtics must stay focused on playing hard for 48 minutes and on playing tough defense and on playing the right way.
X-Factors At Home vs Road Fatigue – The Celtics are at home and they should get motivation from playing in front of their fans. The Celtics have been at home for the past 6 games and should be refreshed from the long home stand. The Thunder are on the road and are playing in the 3rd game in 4 nights and so fatigue may be a factor for them down the stretch.
Officiating – Officiating is always an x-factor. How the refs call the game has a big influence on how the teams play. Will they let them play or call every little bit of contact? Will they call it evenly or will they favor one team or the other. It all effects the outcome of the game and the Celtics need to play the right way and not allow the officiating to take them out of their game. Also, they should never be caught complaining to the refs while the other team goes in for a score.
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