Olympic years are always a sprint. Hell, look at the start for the Indiana Fever, when they were seemingly on TV every other night.
But as crammed as the 40-game schedule is, when the Olympic break hits, WNBA fans find themselves staring out the window, waiting for the season to pick back up.
When play resumes, teams will have anywhere between 14-16 games left, as they jockey for position for the playoffs or the draft lottery.
Though the elite teams (New York, Connecticut, Las Vegas) have started to separate from the pack, the teams who look lottery-bound (Dallas, Los Angeles, Washington) have just as much on the line down the back stretch of the season.
Let’s look at where each team stands to begin post-Olympic play, and the key for each to finish the season.
New York (21–4)
Second-half key: Betnijah Laney-Hamilton’s health
For a team loaded with star-level talent, Laney-Hamilton is the most important player for the Liberty. Right before the break, Laney-Hamilton underwent “minor” knee surgery, putting her on the shelf for 4-6 weeks. That puts her on track to return a week or two after play resumes in the WNBA.
Laney-Hamilton draws the toughest assignments defensively for the Liberty each night – with a smooth transition to Kayla Thornton in relief – but has been more active in the offense as a facilitator this season.
Connecticut (18-6)
Second-half key: Integrating Marina Mabrey
There’s a new face in town, as Marina Mabrey, the sharpshooter with the Chicago Sky, was dealt to Connecticut right before the break.
What’s interesting about this is that the Sun has used the same starting lineup in 23 of their 24 games this year, with Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, Tyasha Harris, DiJonai Carrington, and Brionna Jones all averaging at least 26.3 minutes per game.
The Sun is a well-oiled machine that doesn’t generate a ton of offense from their reserves.
What Connecticut struggles to do, though, is hit shots from three-point range. It ranks 10th in the league in three-point percentage (31.4 percent), so the addition of Mabrey can help it there. Last year, Mabrey shot 39 percent from three but hasn’t been as efficient this year, shooting 34.8 percent on 6.7 attempts per game.
Working in Mabrey will be an interesting wrinkle, as she has a career 23.8 percent usage rate, which is tied with Bonner for the highest mark this season by anyone on the Sun.
A role similar to that played by Tiffany Hayes or Natisha Hiedeman for the Sun in 2023 could be what we see from Mabrey to finish the season.
Seattle Storm (17-8)
Second-half key: Three-point efficiency
The Storm have been fantastic this season, thanks in part to the offseason acquisitions of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike and moving Jordan Horston into the starting lineup over Victoria Vivians. Seattle thrives on the defensive side of the ball and getting to the line in the half-court and in transition, but the only thing slowing down its game right now is its three-point shooting.
Seattle ranks dead last in the league in three-point percentage, shooting 29.2 percent from behind the arc.
But that’s not stopping Seattle from shooting threes. It has hoisted 513 so far this year, which ranks No. 8 in the league.
It’s the 22- to 27-foot range that really hurts Seattle, ranking dead last in the league from that range at 29.1 percent with an eFG percentage of 43.7.
Minnesota Lynx (17-8)
Second-half key: Not burning out its starters
Minnesota has been a pleasant surprise in the first half of the season. It won the Commissioner’s Cup, and it has been locked in from behind the arc thanks to Kayla McBride’s hot shooting.
But, in what has been a surprising year, Minnesota runs the risk of running out of steam down the stretch heading into the playoffs. The Lynx really love to have their starters on the floor, as all starters play at least 26.4 minutes per game. There are only two other players for Minnesota – Dorka Juhász and Natisha Hiedeman – who play more than 15 minutes per game.
Las Vegas Aces (16-8)
Second-half key: Chelsea Gray
A’ja Wilson is the best player in the world. Full stop. Not second. Not third. And definitely, definitely not fourth. But it’s her teammate the point gawd who runs the show for the Aces. Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young did a fine job filling in for Gray to start the season, but there’s been such a difference since Gray returned to the court. The Aces have won 10 of their last 12 games with Gray, suffering two losses by 13 combined points.
The Aces look every part of the team that won back-to-back titles. The only thing that can slow them down is fatigue from the Olympic break with 80 percent of their roster making the team and a setback for Gray.
Phoenix Mercury (13-12)
Second-half key: Keeping the veterans fresh
Entering the season, only Las Vegas had a roster with a higher average age than Phoenix. But when you look at just starters, the youngest player on the Mercury is Kahleah Copper, who is about to turn 30 in August.
The two most-seasoned players for the Mercury – Diana Taurasi (42) and Brittney Griner (33) will be returning from Paris fresh off of the Olympics. Phoenix relies on its top six players to play a lot of minutes, so can it keep everyone fresh down the stretch?
Indiana Fever (11-15)
Second-half key: Lexie Hull
It took a little bit – the early-season schedule certainly didn’t help – but the Fever have found their way. Caitlin Clark is balling. Aliyah Boston reminded people just who she is. NaLyssa Smith and Kelsey Mitchell are doing what you’d hope from them, too. But the X-factor down the stretch for the Fever is Hull.
Her usage has been inconsistent this season, but she’s been earning more playing time of late as Christie Sides figured out her rotation.
The biggest aspect that Hull brings that the Fever lacks is lockdown perimeter defense. It’s not Clark’s strong suit. Boston and Smith handle the paint effectively, but in a late-game pinch, it’s Hull who will get the defensive assignment – in most cases – against the opposition’s best perimeter threat.
Chicago Sky (10-14)
Second-half key: Kamilla Cardoso
There are a number of keys for the Sky, such as making up for Marina Mabrey’s absence and improving on their three-point efficiency. But a strong finish from Cardoso is a bigger key for them.
They have a hold of the last playoff spot right now, thanks in big part to Angel Reese and Chennedy Carter’s breakout seasons. But we forget that Cardoso didn’t make her debut until June 1 this season, and we have seen her improvements as the season has gone on.
The stretch that stood out to me the most was her three-game stretch against Storm (twice) and Dream where she had nine blocks in the three games.
That stretch was right after she went up against Tina Charles, who was giving Cardoso pointers during the game.
Tina Charles giving Kamilla Cardoso tips on how to avoid her shot block mid-game.
Atlanta Dream (7-17)
Second-half key: Get Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada on the floor together
The Dream’s season has been more of a nightmare. Key injuries have been suffered, and none bigger than losing Rhyne Howard midway through June.
What’s more, as soon as Howard went out with an injury, Jordin Canada, the offseason acquisition to play point guard for Atlanta, was preparing to make her season debut.
Canada broke her finger right before the Olympic break against New York (and played a full game against Chicago after!), so we’ve yet to see the two play a single minute together this year.
The Dream will need Howard and Canada to go along with All-Star Allisha Gray to make a push for the final playoff spot. Just a reminder that Atlanta doesn’t own its first-round pick next year (Washington has it), so avoiding the lottery at all costs is a big goal for Atlanta.
Washington Mystics (6-19)
Second-half key: Youth development
Speaking of Washington, it was widely expected that it would be going through a transitional year this season. It took a while for it to get its first win (it happened in Atlanta, which adds a layer to the Mystics owning the Dream’s first-round pick next year), but it has been better than most pundits expected.
The key for the Mystics for the rest of the season is to continue the development of their franchise player, Aaliyah Edwards. It was supposed to be a season of seeing how Edwards and Shakira Austin would gel together with Ariel Atkins running the show, but Austin has been unable to stay healthy.
Still, you need a big three in the WNBA, and if Edwards can continue to develop and Austin can get healthy, the Mystics will be a team to keep an eye on next year as a back-end playoff team.
Los Angeles Sparks (6-18)
Second-half key: Rickea Jackson
It was a new era in Los Angeles with Rickea Jackson and Cameron Brink representing the future of the franchise coming out of the WNBA Draft. Brink was featured early and often, showing her defensive abilities
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