I think a lot of us overestimate the significance of geography when predicting where free agents will sign. In Max Kepler’s case, however, we all might have underestimated the role geography would play in his decision. Perhaps it was inevitable that the greatest German-born player in MLB history would head to the state with the greatest German population in the country. Lo and behold, on December 19, the all-time leader in runs, home runs, RBI, and WAR among Deutschland natives agreed to a one-year, $10 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Yet, aside from helping the Phillies pander to their fans in Germantown, it’s a little difficult to see how Kepler fits this team. Entering the offseason, many expected Philadelphia would pursue a right-handed batter to play left field who could split playing time with Brandon Marsh. Instead, they signed Kepler, who bats lefty and hasn’t played left field since his days at Double-A in 2015. What’s more, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made it clear the Phillies plan to use Kepler as an everyday player, despite the fact that injuries have kept him from playing more than 130 games in a full season since 2019.
Kepler’s limited experience in left field is the least concerning aspect of all this. Whether you look at OAA, FRV, DRS, or Baseball Prospectus’s DRP, Kepler has never been a below-average outfield defender in any season of his career. His strong track record as a right fielder, and his past experience in center, should help him adjust to left. Furthermore, Kepler might benefit from playing a position where throwing isn’t quite as important. Although his arm strength consistently ranks above the league average, he has been worth -3 throwing runs in his career, according to Baseball Savant.
Even if it won’t be a major adjustment, it’s not nothing for the Phillies to ask Kepler to re-learn a position after almost 10 years away. It makes me think of the movie line I quote more often than any other. In Moneyball, when Billy Beane tries to convince catcher Scott Hatteberg that he can play first base, Beane asks Ron Washington to tell Hatteberg that’s it not that hard. “It’s incredibly hard,” Washington replies.
Moving from right to left field is doable for most professional baseball players. It’s so doable that a lot of them make it look simple. But of course, it’s not. Kepler will have to adjust to the ways the ball comes off the bat, the ways it bounces off the wall, and the ways he’ll have to turn to make all his necessary throws. He’ll also have to do that while trying not to re-aggravate the knee and hip issues that have bothered him the last two years. Dombrowski says Kepler thinks it will be “an easy adjustment.” Perhaps he’s right. Perhaps his natural talents will counterbalance his lack of experience. Still, it’s one small reason why Kepler isn’t a perfect fit for this roster.
Ultimately, Kepler will probably handle left field just fine. The bigger question is if he’ll be able to handle left-handed pitching. His career splits are so poor as to make you scratch your head and wonder how the Twins could have possibly watched him play for a decade and never platooned him. More than a quarter (25.4%) of his career plate appearances have come against southpaws; since Kepler’s debut season in 2015, the average lefty batter has taken only 18.5% of his hacks without the platoon advantage. This would be understandable if Kepler were better than average against lefties, except, of course, he’s not. When facing righties, Kepler has a career 111 wRC+. Against southpaws, that number falls to 78. Over the past 10 years, he is one of 100 players to take at least 1,000 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. He ranks among the bottom three in all three triple-slash categories. His wRC+ ranks second to last – less than half a percentage point better than former Phillie Freddy Galvis.
That’s not ideal for the Phillies, who already have two key players they don’t trust against left-handed pitching: Marsh and Bryson Stott. Neither was effective against lefties in 2024, and there isn’t much reason to hope for improvement; ZiPS projects each of them for a .675 OPS against southpaws in 2025. Moreover, Philadelphia’s two best hitters, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, are also lefty bats. You’d think this team would be looking for a right-handed hitter to balance things out. Instead, they quintupled down with Kepler.
Having said that, I concede there might be a method behind Dombrowski’s madness. Despite a lineup that skewed left-handed, the Phillies ranked third in the majors with a 118 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers in 2024. In contrast, their 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers ranked 13th. Expected wOBA paints a similar picture; the Phillies had the third-best offense against lefties and only the 12th-best lineup against righties. That’s largely because all four of Philadelphia’s most important righty batters – Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto – had noticeable platoon splits in 2024. With that in mind, adding a bat like Kepler makes a lot more sense. It’s still fair to worry that this lineup is too lopsided. A dominant left-hander could come in and shut them down. Yet, over the course of a long season, Kepler might actually bring more balance, not less, to the Phillies offense.
It’s also worth mentioning that Kepler has kept his head above water against lefties over the past few years. He has a 102 wRC+ across 298 plate appearances against same-handed pitchers from 2022-24. His .310 xwOBA in that time is right in line with his .312 wOBA. Of course, 298 PA are not a lot of data to work with. It’s such a small sample that if you go back one more year and look at his numbers against lefties from 2021-24, his wRC+ drops to 85. Thus, we’re faced with the age-old question that continues to flummox baseball prognosticators: How heavily should we weigh more recent performance in a smaller sample size compared to less recent performance in a larger sample size? Color me skeptical that Kepler has made his platoon woes disappear. The Phillies, however, seem to think he can hold his own no matter who’s on the mound.
To that point, the Phillies also seem to think that Kepler can be more productive overall in 2025 than he was last year. Speaking to the media after signing Kepler, Dombrowski emphasized that the veteran outfielder was coming off a down year. Yet, it’s debatable how true that really is. Kepler’s 94 wRC+ in 2024 was a step down from his career 102 wRC+ and a big step down from his 123 wRC+ in 2023. However, his 97 wRC+ in 2021 and 94 wRC+ in 2022 suggest that his true talent level at this point in his career is closer to what we saw in his mediocre 2024 season than in his excellent 2023 campaign. Kepler’s defensive numbers were also down in 2024, but that’s a trend that began the year before. You could call that two defensive down years in a row, or you could admit that it’s probably an age-related decline.
Steamer envisions a slight uptick in Kepler’s offensive performance in 2025, projecting a 101 wRC+. Interestingly, Steamer foresees better overall numbers for Kepler despite a significant decrease in his BABIP. The system seems to acknowledge that his walk rate and power numbers were unusually low in 2024 and expects some positive regression in both areas. Unfortunately, Steamer also believes in the trend of his declining defensive abilities. Thus, Kepler’s 1.1 WAR projection, using the playing time estimates from our Depth Charts, represents a step back from his production this past year. He finished with 1.0 WAR in 2024, but that was in 105 fewer plate appearances than our Depth Charts have him taking in 2025. A one-win role player is still valuable, and adding such a player on a one-year, $10 million contract is a perfectly reasonable investment. Still, the point stands that Kepler just isn’t a great fit for the everyday role the Phillies are asking him to play.
Finally, there’s the question of whether or not Kepler’s body can even handle playing every day. He has spent time on the injured list in each of the past five seasons. He hasn’t qualified for the batting title since 2019. Even in his younger years, when he had better luck avoiding the IL, he dealt with at least one injury issue or another each year. The “injuries” section on his Baseball Prospectus player page has at least one entry for every season dating back to 2014.
In 2024, Kepler missed time early in the year with a right knee contusion before landing on the IL again in September with patellar tendinitis in his left knee. He has previously dealt with patellar tendinitis in his right knee, too. On top of that, his hip began to bother him while he was trying to return from the left knee injury, and that’s what ultimately prevented him from coming back before the season was up. As if that weren’t enough, Kepler was also playing through a core injury that required offseason surgery. The Phillies seem to think he’ll be back at 100% by the spring, but his health is always going to be a concern.
For a Phillies team that could use more stability in the outfield, Kepler’s injury history is yet another reason to question this move. Phillies outfielders ranked 18th in wRC+ and 19th in WAR this past season. Marsh was an above-average player against right-handed pitching but a non-factor against lefties. Johan Rojas was an elite defender and baserunner, but his 68 wRC+ ranked among the bottom five in the sport (min. 350 PA). Castellanos was the only one of those three who actually took the field every day, but the numbers suggest he’s the last one who should have been playing that often. He finished the year dangerously close to replacement level (0.4 WAR); he simply wasn’t productive enough at the plate (105 wRC+) for a player who offered nothing in any other aspect of the game. Kepler is a good player, but he isn’t a good answer to any of the questions raised by Marsh, Rojas, and Castellanos. His lengthy injury history only brings another unknown variable into the equation.
Kepler signed with the Twins as a 16-year-old international free agent. After 16 seasons with the organization – almost half of his life – he departs the only MLB team he’s ever known. He is one of 133 players who have played in each of the past 10 seasons. He is one of only 10 who played all 10 seasons for the same team. During those 10 seasons, he was a member of three AL Central-winning clubs and four playoff runs. He played more than 1,000 games. Over the past 30 years, only four players have suited up for the Twins more often: Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer. All four are members of the Twins Hall of Fame. Kepler never found himself in the spotlight as much as any of those names. He was never the best player on the team. He was never an MVP, an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, a Gold Glover, or a batting champion. Yet, after so many years, he leaves behind his own little legacy in Minnesota.
Now, Kepler heads to Philadelphia. He’s not the perfect match for his new team, but the Phillies will hope his overall talent outweighs his awkward fit. Even in 2024, the worst season of his career, Kepler was a win above replacement level. If he can be that kind of contributor for the Phillies, the kind that Whit Merrifield and Austin Hays couldn’t be, maybe everything else will fall into place.
