Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Prediction, Picks, Odds

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Mercury vs. Fever Preview

History favors the Mercury in the all-time series between these two teams (29-24).

This game will be the third time these two teams have played this season. Indiana was a 1.5-point favorite at home on July 12, winning 95-86 (O/U 173.5). Phoenix was a 7.5-point favorite at home vs the Fever on June 30, but Indiana won 88-82 (O/U 175.5).

Indiana has won the last four games against Phoenix, but the Mercury won six of the last ten meetings. In those ten games, the OVER went 5-5.

Mercury Preview

13-12 SU, 15-10 ATS

OVER is 12-13

8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS at home

After climbing out of their early hole, the Mercury have been fighting to get above .500 and stay. They’ve managed to get two games up but then lost two in a row. But with the win over Washington prior to the break, they are one game up, 13-12.

The issues have not been on the offensive end of the court. They averaged 87 points per game in the five prior to the break, a number that should be enough to win. But it wasn’t in two, as their opponents scored 95 and 96 points (to 86 and 69 for Phoenix).

Early in the season, the offense struggled, but once it started producing, the team began winning more than it lost. But just trying to outscore opponents is not a solid strategy.

It works against lesser teams, but when you face the better ones…

Indiana does not qualify as one of the “better teams” just yet. But while Phoenix had a respectable night on the offensive end in both games (82 and 86 points), their defense couldn’t get the stops they needed vs. the Fever offense (Indiana scored 88 and 95 points).

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Fever Preview

11-15 SU, 14-12 ATS; OVER is 17-9

5-10 SU and 7-8 ATS when on the road

3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS as a road favorite

Indiana keeps threatening to become a respectable team. They certainly took a big step in that direction in the last couple of weeks before the break. Of their six games in July, four were against playoff-bound teams. The Fever went 3-1 against those teams, including a road win over the Lynx.

But when they had a chance to have some real momentum heading into the break, they lost a game they should have won against an inferior Dallas Wings team, 101-93.

The problem was one of the same that has plagued the team throughout the year— defense. Only Dallas has allowed more points per game than Indiana this season, 89.7 to 87.3. They have forced the fewest turnovers, 12.4 per game, and allow opponents to make over 30 shots a game (tenth).

In the two games between Indiana and Phoenix, the Mercury recorded 29 and 27.

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Mercury vs. Fever Pick

There is no question—Indiana has a poor defense, but so does Phoenix (Mercury—85.5 points per game; Fever—87.3). It may be a low-scoring game in the first half as everyone gets back into a rhythm. But the scoring will pick up in the second.

We think this will be a high-scoring game between two of the worst defenses in the league, but 175+ points is a pretty high total for the first game after such a long break. However, at 3.5 points, it’s a toss-up as to whether the spread gets covered.

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