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Welcome back to Pick and Roll, powered by FanDuel.
Join me and TSN.ca’s Brianne Spiker as we highlight everything you need to know about WNBA storylines as the season continues.
This week, we’re heading to Sin City to examine the Las Vegas Aces’ pursuit of making history.
The Aces are looking to become the first team since the Houston Comets in the late 1990s to win three straight WNBA championships and are led by a two-time MVP having the best season of her career.
Wilson’s Historic Season
Aces’ two-time MVP A’ja Wilson has somehow taken her game to new heights this year.
The 28-year-old is currently averaging career highs in points (27.5) and rebounds (12.1), averaging a double-double for the first time in her career.
Wilson’s 27.5 points per game would be the highest single-season scoring average by over two points, besting Diana Taurasi’s 25.3 points per game in 2006.
Wilson is on pace to score 1,100 points this season, which would give her the first 1,000-point season in WNBA history.
The current record is 939 points by Jewell Loyd in 2023, the first season the league played a 40-game schedule.
Wilson has been head and shoulders better than the rest of the league this year, and it shows in her winning Western Conference Player of the Month in the three months to open the season.
In late May, her odds of winning MVP were slightly below plus money at -105, and only two months later, the market was off the board due to Wilson being such an overwhelming favourite.
A third MVP for Wilson would tie her for the most in league history with Sheryl Swoopes, Lisa Leslie and Lauren Jackson.
Spiker’s Take
The Aces are looking for another championship but this year’s road to the playoffs hasn’t been as dominant.
Outside of Wilson taking her game to new heights, the rest of the roster hasn’t quite reached the high marks of last year. As a team, the Aces still lead the WNBA in points per game at 87.3, but are down from last year’s mark of 92.8.
At the end of the 2023 regular season, Las Vegas were in first place with a remarkable 34-6 record. At this juncture, they are in fourth at 21-12.
Jackie Young got a handful of MVP votes last season in the fourth- and fifth-place categories and while she started the season hot, the points per game has taken a dip, down from 17.6 points a year ago to 16.8 this season. However, Young has become more trusted with the ball, especially with Chelsea Gray missing the start of the season with injury, leading to a career-high 5.4 assists per game, up from 3.8 assists last season.
For Kelsey Plum, her scoring is down from last season, going from 18.7 points per game last season to 17.6 this season but her rebounding and assist rates remain consistent from last year.
After this trio of No. 1 picks, the Aces’ scoring depth drops off in a hurry. Candace Parker retired in the off-season but lured 34-year-old Tiffany Hayes out of retirement and is the team’s fourth-leading scorer at 9.5 points while averaging 2.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game.
The season-opening injury to Gray has hurt the Aces and the hope is she can find that dominant level she is capable of for the playoffs. Her offence has been cut in half this season, down from 15.3 to 7.8 this season. Her assist rate has also taken a hit, going from 7.3 last season to 4.9 this season.
The Aces have been criticized in the past for leaning on their stars too much and that has been the case this season with Wilson, Plum and Young all playing two to four more minutes this season than they did last year.
Las Vegas tinkered with their depth in the off-season a little but brought back the majority of last year’s roster. However, with Becky Hammon relying on her starters even more and the lack of production from the bench, it has me hesitant to put the Aces as the frontrunner for this year’s title.
Betting Markets
The Las Vegas Aces currently have the second-shortest odds to win the WNBA title at +340. That gives them an implied probability of 22.73 per cent of making history this year.
Wilson isn’t too far behind at +410 to win the WNBA Finals MVP. She is trying to be the first player since Leslie in 2001 and 2002 to win back-to-back Finals MVPs.
Gray, the 2022 Finals MVP, is +6000 to win her second, while Plum and Young are also at that 60-1 price tag.
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