Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
The long weekend gave me an opportunity to do a few things: (a) eat a whole bunch of food, (b) watch a whole bunch of baseball, and (c) take a look at the injured list and identify some players from around the league who ought to be helpful down the stretch or into the playoffs. Here are a few to keep an eye on.
The Dodgers Get Their Game 1 Starter (Hopefully)
Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman finally have their full supporting cast back, as Max Muncy, who missed three months due to an especially pesky oblique strain, rejoins a group headlined by Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith, and Gavin Lux.
But while the lineup has stabilized, the pitching remains far less settled, especially as we look ahead to how the Dodgers might construct a postseason rotation. Jack Flaherty is sure to be a member, and Gavin Stone is a strong option towards the back of a three- or four-man rotation. Beyond those two, however, things get pretty bleak. Walker Buehler‘s return from Tommy John surgery has been difficult. It would be unfathomable for him to be left off the playoff roster if he’s healthy, but the extent of his availability is unclear. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw’s first seven starts back from shoulder surgery were up and down, and now he’s back on the injured list with big toe inflammation related to a bone spur that he’s been dealing with for years. Even when he returns, Kershaw is entering the complementary phase of his career; he’s not enough on his own.
Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could certainly provide an impact in the playoffs, but Dave Roberts‘ latest update was uninspiring, at least as it pertains to Glasnow. Reading tea leaves, it sure looks as if Glasnow will once again fail to qualify for the ERA title, something he’s yet to accomplish in nine years in the majors. I can’t say for sure that his barking elbow is the cause, but he pitched to a 5.29 ERA in his last six starts before hitting the injured list for the second time this season.
Yamamoto sounds as if he’s closer to returning, and was probably having a better season than Glasnow in his first 14 major league starts anyway. His starts were often truncated, as he averaged just under 5.2 innings per start even when ignoring his one-inning outing in South Korea, but he also threw 100 pitches in each of his four starts prior to the two-inning outing before his trip to the IL. A true workhorse would benefit the Dodgers greatly in October, lessening the load for a bullpen that, no matter the personnel, always seems to be beleaguered come the playoffs.
It might be a little overdramatic to say that the Dodgers’ playoff hopes hinge on Glasnow and Yamamoto making an effective return, but at the same time, wouldn’t you much rather have Glasnow/Yamamoto/Flaherty/Kershaw as your playoff rotation than Flaherty/Kershaw/Stone/Buehler?
The Arizona Three
The Diamondbacks have continued to perform pretty well lately, with a series loss to the Dodgers over the long weekend halting a nice run during which they’d won seven of eight games and two-thirds of their 27 games in August.
That they won many of those games without Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and Gabriel Moreno is all the more impressive, but that of course doesn’t mean that they haven’t missed those three. Josh Bell has performed well enough at the plate in Walker’s stead and rookie Adrian Del Castillo has done the same for Moreno, but Bell’s fielding is a big step down from Walker’s Gold Glove first base defense and Del Castillo has thrown out just one of 22 attempted base stealers. Marte, of course, has been the club’s best and most consistent performer all season, with his 150 wRC+ tying a career high and his 5.3 WAR buoyed by strong defense at the keystone.
Walker was reinstated from the IL on Tuesday, with Marte’s return a possibility on the team’s current road trip and Moreno expected to take a bit longer, though the team is optimistic he’ll be ready before the regular season ends.
But as one player comes back from the IL, another takes his place, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. laid up due to a calf strain; the hope is that it’ll only keep him out 10 days. That leaves Jorge Barrosa and Randal Grichuk to cover left field, with Bell now likely to get DH plate appearances against lefties while Joc Pederson sits.
Once Moreno is back, Del Castillo will, like Bell, transition to being a valuable bench bat. Bell’s value as a switch-hitter is especially useful to Torey Lovullo’s in-game strategy.
Baltimore’s Bevy of Bats
The Orioles won’t be getting much more help on the mound than they have already. Zach Eflin just returned from shoulder soreness and Grayson Rodriguez could return at some point, but Kyle Bradish, John Means, Félix Bautista, and Tyler Wells are all out for the season. The soon-to-return Jacob Webb and Danny Coulombe are useful relief arms, but they aren’t a panacea to the club’s bullpen woes of late.
Fortunately, the Birds might just be able to outhit everybody once all their bats are healthy. Speedster Jorge Mateo is out for the rest of the season following elbow surgery, leaving Cedric Mullins and Gunnar Henderson as the team’s only big basestealing threats, but there really aren’t any other holes to poke in a full-strength O’s offense once Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, Ramón Urías, and Heston Kjerstad come back. In fact, there might be too many options for 13 spots, not that that’s a bad thing.
Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Westburg, and Colton Cowser should be in the lineup every game during the playoffs, though Cowser could sit against a tough lefty. Backup catcher James McCann, righty masher Ryan O’Hearn, Mountcastle, and Mullins are sure to be on the roster no matter what, as manager Brandon Hyde can mix and match depending on the opposing starter. That leaves just four spots (unless they go with 14 hitters, which is plausible) for the still inconsistent Jackson Holliday, lefty-mashers Austin Slater and Eloy Jiménez, Kjerstad, and top prospect Coby Mayo, who’s yet to find his footing in the majors but very well could in the remaining weeks. These things often have a way of sorting themselves out, and the first order of business for Hyde is winning the AL East, with the extra September position player spot helpful in evaluating candidates for the playoff roster.
