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In just nine days, the WNBA will conduct its first expansion draft since Atlanta stocked their initial roster back in 2008. I did a mock version of that too, scarily enough, which makes me feel incredibly old (I can’t link to it because the website doesn’t exist in the same form anymore). I wrote a complete explainer on the expansion draft rules a while back, but these are the basics:
The Golden State Valkyries can select one player from each of the existing 12 teams. The teams can protect six players from being selected, including anyone on their roster at the end of the 2024 season, and anyone that they hold rights to. The Valkyries can select a maximum of one player who would become an unrestricted free agent, with the expectation that they would then core that player to retain their rights in the upcoming free agency period.
This obviously means some tough decisions for some of the other teams around the league. Especially when you include players whose rights are on the books but who weren’t around in 2024, some teams have a lot more than six players whom they’d like to retain. They’re allowed to make deals with Golden State to avoid taking certain players, or even to trade for available players from other teams that would instantly move through Golden State when the expansion draft takes place. It’s an interesting situation from various perspectives, not least the Valkyries fans wondering who they’ll be watching in their inaugural season.
Before we approach the team situations one by one, some general notes. This is an unusual time to be facing an expansion draft. Apart from players under rookie-scale contracts (which are three years plus a team-option fourth year at the end), only two players in the entire league are signed beyond next season. This is due to the new broadcast deal and the new Collective Bargaining Agreement that needs to be negotiated alongside it before the 2026 season, which everyone is anticipating will lead to a significant increase in salaries. That means that youth is even more vital to building a roster right now than it usually is. After next season, virtually everyone who’s played at least five seasons in the WNBA is going to be a free agent. So if Golden State select those players they might have them for their debut season, but then they’ll be free to walk away – just as they would if they play out the 2025 season elsewhere. Obviously, the Valkyries may back themselves to provide such a positive experience that players won’t want to leave, but players whose rights they control beyond 2025 will be particularly valuable. Of course, every other team in the league knows all this as well. So unless you think your team is a contender to win a championship in 2025, many may prioritize protecting players who can help them beyond next year.
Let’s take a look at who teams may have protected, and who that leaves available for selection by the Valkyries.
The Dream get us off to a nice start by illustrating various different aspects of the protection options. They may not be a true contender but they’re not going to want to give up any of their top players for nothing, which means the star perimeter of Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Jordin Canada will surely all be protected. They’re too good to leave available and would all have trade value if the Dream did want to cash in and switch to a semi-rebuild (even with Canada and Gray becoming unrestricted free agents (UFAs) after 2025). Whether the Dream would want to or not, there’s no need to protect Tina Charles because she’s a UFA who can’t be cored anymore due to reaching the limit of two or more seasons played under a core contract. That means there’s no point in Golden State using their sole UFA pick on her, and therefore no point in protecting her. Atlanta’s other impending UFAs, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus and Aerial Powers, had uninspiring and injury-hit seasons in 2024. With a new head coach on the way in there’s a chance that a healthy Parker-Tyus, in particular, could return to her all-star form from the year before, but it seems likely that both she and Powers will be left unprotected. If Golden State decides that’s their best option with their one UFA pick, the Dream will live with it.
Then it becomes a question of which of their young talents Atlanta believes in the most. They’ve worked to develop Naz Hillmon, and despite her limitations, she’s become an effective and hard-working post whom they’ll likely want to keep. But then what? Haley Jones has had opportunities to impress in her first two seasons, and looked okay at times, but still hasn’t really found a position or any consistency in her jump shot. Laeticia Amihere is still far more prospect than player. Maya Caldwell, Lorela Cubaj, and Iliana Rupert are WNBA backups, with the last two consistently questionable to show up due to commitments overseas. Then there are their draft rights players. They took two young Australians in the 2024 draft, Nyadiew Puoch at No. 12, and Isobel Borlase at No. 20. Puoch is the athlete with all the ‘tools’ and athletic traits that draftniks fall in love with; Borlase is the more polished current player who went to the Olympics and played some rotation minutes on the wing for the Opals in Paris. They also still have the rights to Matilde Villa, a talented young Italian guard (although history suggests that Australians are significantly more likely to actually show up and play in the WNBA than Europeans). Just to round out their protection options, there’s also Nia Coffey, who’s been a solid enough WNBA rotation player at times in her career but had a poor 2024 season. Also, the long-forgotten rights to Spanish guard Maite Cazorla, who hasn’t shown up in the US since 2019.
I think the final two spots are probably down to Jones, Puoch, and Borlase. The question is whether they feel like they’ve seen enough of Jones in two seasons to decide she’s not really worth persevering with, or if they think there’s a real player in there given more time. I’d be tempted to move on.
Projected protectees: Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, Jordin Canada, Naz Hillmon, Nyadiew Puoch, Isobel Borlase
Golden State pick options: Jones to see what they can make of her unusual skillset, Amihere because everyone loves the raw athleticism, or Coffey for some veteran solidity. Or maybe even Parker-Tyus if the UFA options don’t get better in the next 11 lists.
As with Atlanta and several upcoming teams, the first few protectees are very straightforward for Chicago. Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, their young building blocks drafted just this year, are going nowhere. She’s about to become a restricted free agent, but the same is presumably also true of Chennedy Carter, who returned to the league and illustrated her obvious offensive talent in 2024. Then it gets a little more complicated.
It doesn’t seem likely that they’ll be too worried about losing any of their impending unrestricted free agents – Isabelle Harrison, Diamond DeShields, and Brianna Turner – all of whom might leave regardless of the expansion draft. Or particularly concerned about their rights to Europeans Nikolina Milić and Maria Conde. That leaves three spots with veteran guards Lindsay Allen, Moriah Jefferson, and Rachel Banham, recently extended post Elizabeth Williams, and the restricted rights to Michaela Onyenwere and Dana Evans still on the table. Jefferson is both overpaid and frequently injured, so if Golden State wants to take her off Chicago’s hands, the Sky will probably be perfectly happy. Having signed her to a very reasonable one-year contract extension, they probably want to keep Williams. After that, it’s a group of players who’ve had flashes at the WNBA level without ever consistently proving they’re more than backups. Onyenwere and Evans are the youngest, so maybe they’ll keep them around to see if a new head coach can maximize their talents; with Allen and Banham, we pretty much know exactly what they are at this point. Personally, I’d keep Allen over Evans to lead this team at the point until a better option presents itself.
Projected protectees: Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso, Chennedy Carter, Elizabeth Williams, Michaela Onyenwere, Dana Evans
Golden State pick options: If left available, I’d take Allen as a solid point guard option. Banham seems to be beloved wherever she goes, so wouldn’t be a bad addition. Harrison would be a similar kind of veteran, if-there-are-no-better-options UFA pick as taking Parker-Tyus from Atlanta.
As with Charles in Atlanta, there is no need to protect either DeWanna Bonner or Brionna Jones because both have reached the limit of core years so aren’t options for Golden State’s UFA pick. Alyssa Thomas, on the other hand, does have to be included among Connecticut’s protectees. Midseason acquisition Marina Mabrey and starting guards Tyasha Harris and DiJonai Carrington will probably also be protected, especially if the Sun are hoping to retain Thomas, Bonner, and Jones to make another playoff push with this same core.
That leaves essentially three players that the Sun are likely to be concerned about, with two protected spots remaining. Olivia Nelson-Ododa has been a solid backup post in her first three WNBA seasons and could be particularly important if Jones walks away in free agency. Veronica Burton was waived by Dallas but was a useful addition to Connecticut’s backcourt options after the Sun picked her up (and her jump shot keeps showing flashes of improvement). Both are still only 24 years old. But French guard Leila Lacan, taken at No. 10 overall in the 2024 draft, is only 20 and a real talent. Obviously, there are concerns with international players over whether they’ll show up to play in the WNBA, especially players like Lacan who are already integrated into strong European national team setups. But I think the pure potential there likely wins out over what they found in Burton.
Unrestricted free agents Tiffany Mitchell and Astou Ndour-Fall, the reserved rights to Caitlin Bickle, and the draft rights to Abbey Hsu, won’t be of huge concern to the Sun.
Projected protectees: Alyssa Thomas, Marina Mabrey, Tyasha Harris, DiJonai Carrington, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Leila Lacan
Golden State pick options: Burton looks like the easy choice if the protectees are as above. If she’s protected instead of any of those six, take the player she replaces.
Okay, brace yourselves Liberty fans. The thing is, when your GM’s done their job, and part of you winning a championship was the significantly improved bench, you’re supposed to have players that you’d be disappointed to lose in an expansion draft. It makes sense that some of Golden State’s best players should come from the league’s best teams. Not that it makes it any easier to lose players you’ve become attached to.
As with Minnesota, when you just rode a core group to the Finals (and a parade, in New York’s case), you don’t want to let that core be broken up. So the playoff starting five of Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, and Leonie Fiebich are all likely to be protected. Some of that group may not be at their absolute peak anymore, but they’re not far enough past it to move on just yet. There are also always concerns that international players might skip WNBA seasons, but Fiebich was good enough (and is young enough) to be protected even with that potential issue.
While there are lots (and lots) of players that the Liberty would be disappointed to lose, I honestly don’t think the final pick is that difficult, either. Age is the primary factor, with Nyara Sabally a 24-year-old mobile 6-foot-5 center who has the faith of head coach Sandy Brondello (which isn’t something she hands out freely). Sabally has had a lot of injury issues, which is a concern and might make the Liberty consider other options with this sixth spot, but I think she’s too valuable to overlook. Especially with Stewart and Jones getting older and maybe needing to play fewer minutes in upcoming seasons.
That will leave a whole host of options for Golden State. I’m assuming Stewart will be protected and ice-cored, but that leaves fellow veteran UFA Courtney Vandersloot as an option for the Valkyries. She turns 36 before next season starts and was largely played out of New York’s rotation, but would obviously be a leader and a recognizable name addition for Golden State. Alternatively, Kayla Thornton remains a very solid combo-forward (that New York would hate to lose); Marquesha Davis rarely saw the court as a rookie but drew comparisons to Kahleah Copper when drafted; Ivana Dojkic and Jaylyn Sherrod provided decent backup point guard minutes when required; and then there are all the additional options who didn’t appear in 2024. Marie Johannes and Han Xu have both shown what they can do at the WNBA level and became beloved by the New York fan base when they were around. Rebekah Gardner had a great rookie year in Chicago before getting hurt (and New York may be hoping she can replace Thornton or Kennedy Burke if they lose one or both). The Liberty also have the rights to Spanish post Raquel Carrera and French point guard Marine Fauthoux, young and talented players that viewers of European basketball will be well aware of.
This is the rare team where the decisions may be significantly tougher for Golden State than the team making the protections.
Projected protectees: Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Leonie Fiebich, Nyara Sabally
Golden State pick options: Vanders
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