Rays Are Overwhelming the Competition

Entering Thursday, the Tampa Bay Rays had stolen 35 bases in their previous 15 games. Even in this new age of increased stolen base rates, that’s impressive. Only one other team has swiped at least 35 bags over 15 games since the implementation of the new rules: the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2023. Before that, only one other team had accomplished the feat in the 21st century: the Tampa Bay Rays in May 2009. The last time a team other than the Rays stole so many bases in so few games was before the Rays franchise even existed; in 1992, the Milwaukee Brewers enjoyed two distinct 15-game stretches with at least 35 stolen bags.

Perhaps 35 and 15 aren’t round enough numbers for you. In that case, you’ll be happy to hear that the 2024 Rays are the very first team in the pitch clock/disengagement limit/bigger bases era to steal 50 bases in any 25-game span; they pulled it off between July 21 and August 18 (and again from July 22 to August 19, and July 23 to August 20). The last team to achieve this particular feat was — you guessed it — the 2009 Rays, and before them, the 1992 Brewers.

If you go back any further, 50 steals in 25 games starts to become pretty common. After all, stolen bases were all the rage from the late 1970s to the early ’90s. Still, the modern-day Rays stand out for their efficiency. Since 1976, there have been 312 instances of a team stealing at least 50 bases in a 25-game span (including overlapping spans). With an 89.3% success rate over their best 25-game stretch, the 2024 Rays rank 11th on that list, trailing only those 2009 Rays (five overlapping stretches) and Vince Coleman’s 1985 Cardinals (five overlapping stretches):

What’s more, the Rays have managed to pull this off despite not reaching base very often. On-base percentage is far from a perfect proxy for stolen base opportunities, but players do need to get on base in order to steal one. With a .301 OBP from July 23 to August 20, the 2024 Rays have the 15th-lowest OBP on the list of 312. Only three distinct teams (again, since 1976) have managed to steal at least 50 bases in 25 games with a lower OBP: the 1976 Athletics (across nine overlapping stretches), the 1988 Astros (four overlapping stretches), and the 1988 Cardinals:

On top of all that, the Rays’ recent stolen base frenzy is especially interesting considering how lackluster their stolen base numbers were over the first three months of the season. From March to June, the Rays stole 81 bases in 84 games. That’s not bad. But that wasn’t the problem. The issue, as you might have guessed, is that the Rays were caught 32 times. Their 71.7% success rate was well below the 77.8% league average. Accordingly, they ranked 25th in the majors with -2.4 stolen base runs (wSB). Here’s how that broke down by month:

Yet, Tampa Bay has completely turned things around amid the hottest months of the summer. The Rays stole three bases without getting caught during their first game in July. From then on, they started stealing more often and succeeding at a higher rate:

Across 24 games in July, the Rays essentially wiped their slate clean, raising their -2.4 wSB to a neutral 0.0. Now, after just 19 games in August, they have moved up to fourth place in the majors and first in the American League with 151 stolen bases and a 4.5 wSB on the season. No other team has come close to matching Tampa Bay’s stolen base production since July 1.

Aside from stolen bases, the rest of the Rays’ baserunning has been consistently above-average throughout the year. So, their overall baserunning value (BsR) has gone from slightly below average to well above. They had a -0.7 BsR at the end of June — that number stands at 7.6 today, an 8.3-run improvement in just 43 games. For one of the lowest-scoring teams in baseball, those eight or so extra runs have made a massive difference in helping the Rays keep their heads above water. Since July 1, they are 22-21 with a +5 run differential.

Here’s a look at all the Rays’ stolen base attempts in July and August broken down by player:

None of these are outrageous numbers, considering we’re talking about a 43-game sample. Josh Lowe leads the club with 13 steals, but that is only enough for him to be tied for sixth in the majors; Shohei Ohtani, Xavier Edwards, and Elly De La Cruz all have upwards of 20 steals in the same time period. Indeed, while team-wide stolen base stats can be heavily influenced by a single speedster (Ohtani is responsible for 56% of the Dodgers’ steals in July and August), that’s not the case in Tampa Bay.

Instead, several players have slightly increased their stolen base output. That’s partially due to early-season injuries; Lowe and Taylor Walls missed significant time early in the year, and they were much more apprehensive on the bases when they first returned. Yet, it goes beyond that. Seventy-two players have stolen at least five bases since July 1. Seven of them have done so in a Rays uniform. No other team can claim more than four. The Rays also have 11 players with at least two stolen bases in that time, the most in the majors, and 13 players with at least one stolen base, tied for most in the league. That’s too many players to include in a single MLB Film Room reel, so you’ll have to settle for a sampler plate of Tampa Bay’s stolen bases in July and August:

Just like we can’t credit one player for the Rays’ recent success, no individual is to blame for their struggles beforehand. José Caballero led the team with nine thwarted stolen base attempts through June, yet he also successfully stole 24 bags and produced a +0.7 wSB. He has continued to run at almost the exact same rate and with the same amount of success since the start of July. Still, the team’s improved success rate has to come from somewhere. For one thing, it doesn’t hurt that Randy Arozarena is no longer on the roster. Arozarena has always walked a fine line between aggressive baserunner (positive connotation) and aggressive baserunner (negative connotation). For his career, he is 98-for-139 in steal attempts (70.5%) with a -0.9 wSB. During his time with the Rays this year, he was 16-for-23 (69.6%). Thus, it certainly helps that he has been a Mariner since July 26. It also helps that he went 10-for-16 with the Rays from March to June and 6-for-7 in July before the trade deadline.

Moreover, two other Rays baserunners who were responsible for multiple caught stealings over the first three months of the season are no longer with the club. Harold Ramírez went 5-for-7 before he was DFA’d two months ago, while Amed Rosario went 7-for-11 through June. Rosario improved to 2-for-2 in July before he was traded at the deadline.

However, not all the baserunners who the Rays have lost have been additions by subtraction. Richie Palacios was 19-for-20 in steal attempts through July, but he has not played at all in August after suffering a knee injury, unfortunately enough, on a stolen base. Nonetheless, the Rays have had their best stolen base month without their most efficient base-stealer.

It has surely helped that Jose Siri, the team’s least efficient base-stealer through June, has turned things around. The center fielder was a disastrous 7-for-13 in stolen base attempts over the first three months, but he has gone 5-for-6 since. Siri, blessed with 99th-percentile sprint speed, should still be a bigger stolen base threat, but at least this is a step in the right direction. Just for fun, here’s a supercut of all six times Siri was thrown out on the bases from March to June:

I feel compelled to mention that although the Rays have been the best base-stealing team as of late, the most improved award actually belongs to their fellow Floridians in Miami. Since July 1, the Rays have increased their stolen bases per game more than any other team in the AL. However, the Marlins have increased their stolen bases per game even more than the Rays. The Marlins have also increased their success rate more than any other team, going from last place in the majors through June 30 (64.1%) to sixth since July 1 (85.9%). What’s more, the difference between their wSB from March to June (-5.98) and their wSB from July onward (+4.37) is +10.3 runs. That’s the biggest swing in either league; the Rays have seen the second biggest swing at +9.2 runs.

Indeed, it turns out huge in-season swings in baserunning success aren’t all that uncommon. Remember those 2023 Rays who stole 35 bags in 15 games? They also went on a longer stolen base run quite similar to the one we’re witnessing right now. Across 43 games from April 28 to June 12, they stole a league-best 71 bases in 79 attempts (89.9%). They racked up 7.9 wSB. Yet, from June 13 onward, they ranked 13th in stolen bases and 23rd with a -2.6 wSB. Or how about the 2009 Rays who stole 71 bases in 80 attempts (88.8%) and compiled 9.3 wSB from April 6 to May 21? They went 123-for-175 (70.3%) with -0.2 wSB the rest of the way.

It’s not just a weird Florida thing, either. The Reds enjoyed an equally impressive stretch last season; they went 77-for-85 (90.6%) with an 8.6 wSB over a 43-game span from May to July. Outside of that stretch, they were only 113-for-153 (73.9%) with a -2.5 wSB. Meanwhile, this year’s Brewers club ranked among the top three teams in wSB in March/April, May, and June. Yet, since July 1, they rank 16th in the majors with -0.3 wSB.

A part of this has to do with the available personnel (trades, injuries, call-ups, etc.), but that usually doesn’t explain everything. The simple truth is that in-season stolen base numbers can be highly volatile. A smart approach to baserunning requires an understanding that you’re going to run into plenty of outs. In other words, for a team like the Rays to have a stretch in which they steal 70 bases in 81 attempts, they are likely also going to go through some stretches in which they are caught far more often than they would like. So, perhaps the Rays are due for regression on the bases; this incredible run probably won’t last. Heck, they didn’t steal at all yesterday, so maybe it’s already over. Yet, even if that’s true, they have built up enough value over the past several weeks that they are still likely to finish as one of the better baserunning teams in the league. The rest of us should just enjoy the Rays running rampant while we can.