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With the caveat that his last outing was his worst of the 2025 campaign — seven earned runs over three innings against the Syracuse Mets — Cade Cavalli appears ready to return to the big leagues. Once he does, Washington Nationals fans will see a somewhat different pitcher than the one who made his last (and only) appearance in the majors on August 28, 2022. Going under the knife has a lot to do with that. After initially landing on the shelf with shoulder inflammation, Cavalli blew out and had Tommy John surgery in March 2023. At the time, the right-hander was his team’s top prospect and no. 63 on our Top 100 as a 50 FV. (Cavalli will be assigned a 45 FV on our forthcoming Nationals list.)
His return to full health was both long and arduous. After missing all of 2023, Cavalli made just a smattering of appearances a year ago, none above High-A, and he went through a dead arm phase this spring and didn’t take the mound until mid-April. Since then, he has been solid more often than not. While his ERA over 10 starts with Triple-A Rochester is 5.27, the now-26-year-old has gone five or more innings while allowing two or fewer runs on four occasions.
When we got reacquainted last month — I first interviewed him in July of 2021 when he was in Double-A — Cavalli explained how he has deviated from his pre-surgery days.
“We’ve kind of changed my four-seam,” Cavalli told me. “Instead of chasing some numbers vertically, we’ve gone back to where my natural hand path is, which is in a supinated position. I’m getting cut-ride now, whereas before it was more ride, with a little bit more horizontal to the arm side. Now it’s a little straighter, with a little bit of cut.”
Asked if chasing ride had added undue stress to his arm, the 22nd overall pick in the 2020 draft out of the University of Oklahoma answered in the affirmative.
“Exactly,” the erstwhile Sooner replied. “We wanted to let my arm do what it does naturally, and now that I’m not over-pronating on the fastball, trying to get the numbers I wanted, I’m not as inconsistent. I’m also recovering better.”
Cavalli told me that he’s been averaging around 13 to 14 inches of vertical break, and one to three inches of horizontal break, whereas in the past it had been “anywhere from 14 to 17 vert, with nine to 11 horizontal arm side.” He likened his revamped heater to a baby cutter.
Eric Longenhagen watched Cavalli’s start at Lehigh Valley on June 20 — a six inning, two run effort — and wasn’t overly enthused with the offering. Our lead prospect analyst observed a fastball that sat 95 mph and topped out at 99, but “played below its velocity due to a lack of movement and hittable angle.”
The movement difference has spurred an addition to Cavalli’s arsenal. With his four-seamer now having some cutting action, he has introduced a two-seamer to give him fastballs that go in different directions.
“Some shapes can change throughout the season, but right now it’s been around nine to 11 vert — 11 above the zero line — and we’ll get 15 to 17 horizontal,” Cavalli said of the new weapon. “It’s not so much a sinker; it’s more of a two-seam off the cut. Velo-wise, I’ve been 95-97, the same as my four.”
The Tulsa native is also mixing up his fastball velocity. Instead of simply reaching back and pumping gas, he’s taking a more nuanced approach to his craft.
“I’ve been adding and subtracting with the fastball instead of throwing everything full-go,” said Cavalli. “It feels like I’m ‘pitching’ more now. I’ll throw one at 91-92 and the next one at 96-97, so there is a little bit of speed differential. They’re not seeing the same fastball every time. It’s been a steady use of both the two and four, and then we add in the curveball, and I’ve also been developing the changeup.”
Not surprisingly, Cavalli isn’t pronating through the latter of those secondaries.
“It’s not a kick-change, but I am in a supinated position,” he explained. “The way my grip is, and the way it’s coming off my hand, it’s catching the air and going the other way; it’s going arm side, and not cutting. It’s seam-shift, basically.
“I used to roll over my changeup, and it was good, but I was pronating a lot on it, which again, my arm doesn’t naturally want to do,” added Cavalli. “I don’t know for sure that it was causing stress on my elbow, but just letting it be in that supinated position and having it come off my middle finger is better for me.”
Longenhagen saw a changeup that shows “bat-missing ability, which when combined with his vertical curveball, gives him two weapons with which to attack lefties.”
Cavalli’s hook, which he throws with a spiked grip, is a hammer. He’s thankful that Tommy John didn’t change that.
“Post-surgery, you’re always wondering, ‘Is my stuff going to be the same? Am I going to be feeling the same,’” said Cavalli. “When I came back and started throwing curveballs, they felt very natural. It’s the same shape, and I’ve been able to throw it anywhere from 83-86 mph, just like I was prior to surgery.”
Longenhagen described a curveball that has “great depth for how hard it is,” and the young hurler’s own take on the pitch underscores why. He said that it gets “around -14 vert, and -8 to 10 horizontal. It’s a power curveball. I just grip it and rip it.”
That said, Cavalli’s mental approach toward a return to the big leagues is anything but grip it and rip it. Living up to his first-round pedigree and performing at baseball’s highest rung remains his top priority, though he’s trying to keep an eye on the present.
“Looking ahead is something that’s easy to do, especially when you’re so close to being there,” Cavalli reasoned. “Instead of doing that, I’m going to stay focused on the present — that’s doing my best to help the team here in Rochester — and go about my business the way that I do.
“I believe that everything will take care of itself,” he continued. “I’ve been working my entire life to help a club at the major league level, and that’s something I don’t let my mind shy away from. I love visualizing that stuff, putting myself on that Washington Nationals mound. I’m seeing myself out there, so when I do get back, I’ve already been there thousands of times in my head. I’ll be ready.”
