rewrite this content and keep HTML tags
2:00
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat
2:01
: Let’s get started
2:01
: What is wrong with Michael Harris, and is he at risk of losing playing time when Acuna returns? Time to cut bait on him in fantasy?
2:02
: I think it might be time to cut bait for the year, all the contact quality stuff is completely falling apart. I don’t think he’s very likely to lose playing time because he’s just spectacular defensively but he is definitely not helping your fantasy team at the moment. If I’m the Braves, I’m running him out there without hesitation, but if I’m a fantasy player, I mean, presumably you can do better
2:02
: Do you think either the Cards or Twins are actually playoff teams or just catching a good streak at the moment?
2:03
: Cards, I’m gonna say no, just becuase there are so many hot starts in the NL that it feels like NLC or bust to me and I really like the Cubs. Twins, I’ll actually say yes; they’re playing for the Wild Card as well but for me, that’s an easier lift in the AL
2:04
: As a fellow Giants watcher, is there anything statistically relevant to gleam from the anecdotes of how the team (Flores being the obvious but example) have supposedly changed their approaches in situations with RISP? It seems very ipso post facto, but it’s been a loud talking point this season.
2:04
: I mean, maybe. But you’d need WAY more PA’s to have any idea. In high leverage spots, the Giants have batted 197 times this year.
2:04
: Their standout skill is actually slugging, which doesn’t really jive with the “shorten up and put the ball in play” story
2:04
: I enjoy these chats so much that I hoped that yesterday was just a rainout and you would reschedule the game for today and I am rewarded.
2:04
: hooray! And hello
2:05
: McLain now batting 9th with relative success. How much longer til he’s back at the top of the order; or is this just some weird superstition. When do you move on?
2:05
: I think probably the next time there’s an off day for someone at the top
2:05
: it’s a little bit superstition and a little bit ‘the gains are very small so why make the transition messy?’
2:05
: Would it make sense to pursue a Sean Murphy trade given the emergence of Baldwin? While having two quality catchers is nice, the Braves team has several other holes that need filling
2:06
: Catchers are famously hard to trade in-season because they need to learn their new pitching staff. Not that it never happens, but it’s not common, particularly for starters
2:06
: Ben, thanks for doing this. Between Judge and Ohtani, who is the better deal for the ball club?
2:06
: Oh, fun one!
2:06
: On the field, I’d have to say it’s Judge
2:06
: he’s cheaper and better right now
2:06
: so like…. yeah that’s good
2:06
: counting off field stuff, I think I’d take Ohtani. The Dodgers are just making BANK off of his celebrity
2:07
: People seem to forget that ‘young’ teams drop these duds all the time. Baltimore joins a long list of teams that peaked a year early (2023) then struggled to follow up and make ‘the leap.’ See the 2014-2017 Astros for more of Elias’s handiwork.
2:07
: I mean, the Astros won the World Series in 2017
2:07
: but I take your point
2:07
: it’s a little different, right? in that the first time the Astros were actually great, they won the WS
2:08
: Is Will Warren real? His FIP looks great, his stuff looks great live, but it feels like each inning there’s a 50% he walks 2 players or gives up absurdly loud contact.
Scouts still seem mixed, with Keith Law insisting he’s destined for the bullpen.
2:08
: Okay, so I’m a huge believer. That’s going to color my opinion – before the year started, I was a strong yes
2:08
: so…. strong yes
2:08
: Best non-mexican burrito in SF? Saucy Asian? Señor Sisig? Curry Up Now?
2:08
: Ooooooh, I have a good one for you if you haven’t had it
2:08
: Poke burrito at Hook Fish Co
2:09
: I read that it was Chesa Boudin’s favorite burrito in the city and I was like “what an idiot, pick la taq or you’ll look like a dummy”
2:09
: but then I had it and yeah, it’s phenomneal
2:09
: Who do you think will be the best player dealt at the deadline? I’m not surprised at the Skenes rumors – the Pirates are bad and he has incredible value so many years away from FA – but I’m not sure I buy them
2:09
: It’s not Skenes
2:09
: They might as well burn down the stadium if they trade Skenes, because they wouldn’t need the seats anymore
2:10
: how about…. Freddy Peralta? Luis Robert Jr.?
2:10
: Is it going to turn out that the O’s were actually smart not to extend any of their players because it turns out none of them are as good as they seemed? That would be so depressing.
2:10
: I don’t think so. The deal with these early extensions is that you buy yourself a pretty good breakeven
2:10
: they don’t have to be incrdible for those deals to be good
2:10
: now, extending them at THIS point? maybe they’re getting more expensive now
2:11
: Any hope for Adames? Other than that big HR game not even steals despite getting on base.
2:11
: I still believe in Adames, but honestly, I don’t think the steals are coming back
2:11
: those were an out of nowhere thing that I assume was heavily influenced by the Brewers
2:11
: I think his defense and hitting will return, but I’m putting him down for like 3-5 steals the rest of the way
2:12
: (maybe this is an article) Can you highlight one hitter and pitcher who is having a breakout that you believe is real?
2:12
: probably an article
2:12
: Dan’s article today is kind of about this, too
2:12
: Which would you say is worse: a team that lucks into a generational talent and completely wastes him, or a team that never manages to develop even a single good player (not naming any names)
2:12
: I’d rather watch the team taht wastes the generational talent b/c then I’d at least get to see him
2:12
: What did you do for your mother for Mother’s Day?
2:13
: We got her a nice candle and had a good chat, but really, I got her going to a Brewers game the week before, and hanging out for the weekend
2:13
: even though it wasn’t on Mother’s day proper, it was very nice
2:13
: Plan B seems to be going pretty well for the Yankees.
2:13
: Max Fried is making it look incredible, huh?
2:13
: Has there been any research on the impact of the pitch clock on performance? Either leaguewide or for individuals? I’m curious if anyone has been especially hurt by the change.
2:14
: I haven’t seen any, and honestly, I wouldn’t completely know where to start
2:14
: Do the Dodgers need to trade for a pitcher? It sounds outlandish given where the roster was two months ago, but it feels like the lack of starters is starting to burn down the bullpen. It also feels like, as of this minute, there are too many question marks. Glasnow? Snell? Ohtani? Sasaki? Kershaw? Any or all could be either A., injured to the point of not being effective this year? B. too young or C., cooked…. Would an offer of, say, Freeland and Knack, fetch a mid-level starter and a lottery pick prospect? I know any of the above (or Sheehan, who is due back in a month or so) could be the answer. But all of those possibilities are big “ifs” for a roster built to win a WS this year.
2:14
: If I were them, I’d be targeting the kinds of pitchers that are cheap because “they can’t start in the playoffs”
2:14
: like, yeah, the Dodgers are full up on dudes who can start in the playoffs
2:14
: they need Erick Fedde or the equivalent
2:16
: Is Zebby worth holding in a 15 team league? Worried about the Twins holding him back
2:16
: I have been wondering this as well
2:16
: I settled on no for me
2:16
: but it’s team dependent
2:17
: All of Sal Perez’s plate discipline, batted ball, and statcast metrics look very normal for him, so I shouldn’t panic, right? Right? But he’s a 35 year old large man catcher, so maybe I should panic a little?
2:17
: yeah for me the age is the important factor
2:17
: maybe I’ll be wrong
2:18
: But I thought he was more 2023 than 2024 and even though I’m expecting some power back, I think it’s like 95 wRC+ power rather than peak Salvy power
2:18
: Say the Marlins added Tucker and Bichette in the offseason (they’d never spend like this). Would that be enough to make them a WS contender?
2:18
: i feel like in previous years, it could have been the case
2:18
: but they’re just very bereft of talent right now
2:18
: I am afraid that the Red Sox are heading down the same slope that the Orioles slipped on. After Crochet it is a vast wasteland. The complete collapse of Houck, the injury to Buehler, not a surprise, and sending the remains of Giolito out there too often has their rotation looking all too similar to the fate that has befallen Baltimore. Add in the 1st base fiasco and this has all the makings of a long dull summer.
2:19
: I actually think they’re in a better position than the O’s, and it’s not really fair to compare the two rotations. Sure, the Sox have been disappointing, but they’ve had a decent number of injuries and underperformance from Houck, six starters on the IL, and yet I feel like Crochet + Bello + whichever other dude steps up is a fine top 3
2:20
: Orioles starters have an ERA 1.63 runs higher than Red Sox starters, lol
2:20
: that number hardly seems real
2:20
: their FIP is more than a run higher too, it’s not just some weird batted ball luck thing
2:20
: This Adley “slump” is almost a year long at this point. Is this still merely a cold streak or is it time to start thinking this is who he is? The Orioles have young catching talent, would it be worth just letting Adley DH for a bit and try to get back on track?
2:20
: I’d consider it. I’m starting to believe that he wasn’t affected by injury last year, since he seems healthy and is still scuffling
2:20
: just, try something
2:20
: he’s clearly incredibly talented but I’d love to see them shake it up a little
2:21
: I get that sometimes the smart thing to do is just keep doing the same thing that used to work even when it stops working
2:21
: but in this particular situation, there’s no time for that. try something rash, imo
2:22
: So Carlos Narvaez looking like a steal for the Red Sox, huh? Even when he regresses
2:22
: even assuming a big regression!
2:22
: Swing path and attack angle on savant! Any advice on how to interpret / what any of it means? Vlad one of the worst in league wrt “ideal attack angle” !
2:23
: not yet, but I”m gonna goof around with it
2:23
: How baseball boggles the mind is astounding, incredible and all the other superlatives that can be conjured up. The Twins are the latest to amaze me. Between 8/24/2024 and 5/2/2025, this, expected to be good, team went 23-43 then peeled off 13 straight wins including a few with Buxton and Correa out. Would you please explain this.
2:23
: See, I feel liek me saying ‘fine I’ll stop predicting the Twins to win the ALC” made it happen
2:23
: so you’re welcome, Bobby (my Twins fan friend)
2:23
: more realistically, yeah, baseball is great!
2:23
: What does Aaron Judge’s ROS WRC+ have to be to drop him down to 150?
2:23
: hm, let’s see
2:24
: 491 PA left, 210 PA at 245 so far
2:25
: That’s 210*245+491*x=(210+491)*150
2:26
: Which side of an OttoNeu YTD Points trade do you favor? Either is a good/best answer. This league SPs are tightly held. Both teams Top 3. Both teams deep in the traded pieces from. $26 Carroll for $40 Skenes
2:26
: oooooh, love an Otto question
2:26
: hmmmmm…. I think it’s pretty team dependent, and H2H vs. roto too. I’m assuming H2H because that’s how I play Otto, and in that case, the guy you’re replacing Skenes with matters a ton
2:27
: I’d probably favor the Skenes side unless I had like 5 starters I liked plus two decent options
2:27
: Who do the Phillies trade for now that the Alverado disaster happened? They also still need a CF. How do you see things shaking out at the trade deadline?
2:28
: I think they’ll do their normal thing of shoring up weak spots as cheaply as they can. I keep advocating for the Nats to trade Jacob Young, maybe he could go to Philly
2:28
: and yeah, they could use relievers
2:28
: What are the chances that Wilmer Flores (10 HR) becomes the first Giant to hit 30 homers in a season since Barry Bonds in 2004?
2:28
: I’ll call it 15%. I’d actually take Chapman over him. Maybe Ramos too
2:29
: Are you pro prospect hoarding or more pro trading away prospects for big league ready talent?
2:29
: what I try to be is flexible
2:29
: the idea being like, when a team is down in its cycle, it’s the time to hoard
2:29
: and to be very willing to experiment and try n ew things
2:30
: and then when the games are more meaningful for you and roster space gets tighter, great news, you hoarded all those prospects, let’s cash them in
2:30
: that’s easier said than done, of course
2:30
: mitch keller to the dodgers…for who?
2:31
: i dunno, Sheehan? some kind of guy the Pirates can talk themselves into being Mitch Keller if things break well
2:31
: but cheaper!
2:31
: I still believe that Jordan Hicks could be a decent starter. His velocity has been fine outside of one start, and his 3.53 FIP, 3.98 xERA, .366 BABIP, and 57.1% LOB% suggest that he’s been insanely unlucky. I think he could maybe be a #3 guy with enough experience. Am I a moron?
2:31
: I think something that’s missing is that some of that BABIP is earned
2:31
: I’ve watched a LOT of Jordan Hicks in my life
2:31
: my wife and I recently decided that the three pitchers we’ve seen teh most times are Jacob deGrom, Logan Webb, and Jordan Hicks
2:32
: and I think that his sinker is just not a babip-suppressing pitch at medium velo
2:32
: I do think he got a rough deal, but I think he’s probably not gonna make it back to the rotation. They’re also clearly worried about fatigue, so changing roles a ton of times? Skeptical
2:32
: How long of a leash does Dylan Crews have this season? I suppose the Nats aren’t in a position to replace him with somebody, but his Ks are pretty worrisome after trending better much of April. Was he forced to the majors just to chase RotY? His AAA numbers didn’t scream call me up.
2:32
: I’d give him the longest leash imaginable
2:32
: what are they losing by trying him out in the bigs?
2:33
: honestly the biggest problem he has is passivity, imo
2:33
: so figure it out against big leaguers
2:33
: Do you buy Ivan Herrera as a top ~25 hitter in the league over the next few years?
2:33
: No, I do not
2:33
: I do buy him as a top-50 position player, though. Not my median assumption but in range. The guy can really hit
2:34
: I dunno, I feel like the 1st base fiasco has the makings of at the lest an interesting summer, if not a good one.
2:34
: This has to be about the Sox. And it’s totally true!
2:34
: I’m so excited
2:34
: who are you most to least optimistic about the rest of 2025: Salvy, Santander, Adames, Altuve
2:34
: and then Altuve/Santander/Salvy
2:34
: that’s for real life. In fantasy I’d probably put Altuve over Adames
2:34
: My prediction that the Dodgers would win more games than the two worst teams amongst the Rockies, White Sox and Marlins looks good. Add in the Pirates and it is simply astonishing to see MLB turn into the NBA with so many non-competitive teams
2:34
: the Rockies are SO bad
2:34
: like, the White Sox aren’t good, don’t get me wrong
2:35
: but they’re -57 run differential so far, not even bottom 5
2:35
: the Rockies are -150 RD!!!!!
2:35
: Do we see Kurtz turn it around this year, or is he sent back to AAA?
2:35
: omg did you see that tag he put on?
2:36
: but uh, I’d probably send him back down, I hate to say. He cannot make contact and his plate discipline isn’t gonna play until he can
2:36
: The A’s are theoretically competing for something, they can’t wait for him to figure that out on the fly
2:36
: What would a Zach Neto and/or Logan O’Hoppe extension look like? Halos trying to be the Braves of the West, they better start doing Braves things and not just trading with them
2:37
: I haven’t run them through the model specifically but I think with Neto, it’d be a classic ‘80% of arb plus two free agent years at $20m and a team option at $25 for a third’
2:37
: if I were him, I’d be tempted not to take that
2:37
: but that’s about wehre I ballpark what a team might offer him
2:38
: As for O’Hoppe, catchers just don’t command the same kinds of deals. I’d model it on a baby Will Smith contract; Smith got a good deal of money, but with low AAV over a long period of time. That suits the Halos well
2:38
: 2 players have multiple 400 foot oppo homers this year. james wood and dylan crews. however both of crews’ came off of chase dollander. as did one of wood’s. i think this anecdote says a lot about crews and the rockies (and wood)
2:38
: I was gonna ask a question about why pitchers are throwing PCA any strikes… but they already seem to hardly throw him any strikes. So my questions is this? Do you see PCA eventually taking more walks as the season goes on (he could hardly walk less) or do you think he is due for a significant come-down? His x-stats actually seem to be catching up with his production rather than vice-versa, so I dunno.
2:39
: I think that he’ll end up taking more walks but hitting for less power
2:39
: because eventually he’s going to stop being on such a wild on-contact run and get convinced to chase a bit less
2:39
: i know it’s hard but it’s not impossible
2:39
: and then pitchers will eventually start attacking him more as a result
2:39
: What % chance do the young, overperforming Card players continue on as they have so far in ’25? Thinking about Liberator, Scott, Herrerra (not hitting .400, to be clear)…
2:40
: I’ll say 60% for Libby, 70% for Herrera (playing at a first-division starter level, a top 10 catcher in baseball), and 35% for Scott. I think that Scott can still be good if his hitting regresses…. but I think it’s gonna regress
2:41
: If you’re running the Cards, how far back in the Central at the deadline would you consider selling pieces (Fedde, Helsley)? Do you expect them to do the same as what you would do?
2:41
: If I’m within, say, 3 games, I’m keeping them
2:41
: I think the team will probably do something similar. Compete if it looks doable
2:41
: it’s the Cardinals. They can’t help looking around and saying ‘should we try to win the division?’
2:41
: Is there a specific kind of hitter who’s been hurt especially much by the ball being deader this year?
2:41
: I looked into this the last time the ball went dead, and guys of the Anthony Rendon archetype (mid power, very good at bat control and thus elevating) had the biggest downside
2:42
: now, the two most prominent examples of that both got plugged into good short porch situations (Bregman and Paredes)
2:42
: but that kind of guy…. high contact, high aerial contact…. should be hurt hte most
2:42
: As a NY resident + sports enjoyer, I get how fandom works and I get how our media landscape operates. But man the Soto vitriol feels particularly desperate and depressing, even for our standards
2:42
: I’m with you
2:43
: maybe in the plyaoffs
2:43
: this is a lot for May
2:43
: methinks the Yankees fans doth protest too much
2:44
: With season almost 1/3rd of the way along, outside of the Orioles difficult to believe collapse what has surprised you the most?
2:44
: I think it’s the Rockies’ abject awfulness
2:45
: Wilmer Flores leading the majors in RBI is kind of wild
2:45
: even though RBI aren’t that useful of a predictive stat, like, dang
2:46
: Person of the year award should go to the guy who got everyone in the baseball world to think Juan Soto was worth not 500 million, not 600 million, but 700 million……All for a diva who doesn’t hustle and will be a DH in 5 years. Are there that few players who are good at hitting a baseball? Seems like we’re due for a market correction.
2:46
: some of it came here
2:46
: come on, man
2:47
: Shohei has scored 50+ runs already!
2:47
: they can’t actually lose 135 games tho, right? … right?
2:47
: …… right
2:47
: How do I signup for “Ben’s random SF food recommendations?”
2:47
: just ask me some!
2:47
: just went to cache in inner sunset, a new bistro-y casual place, and really liked it
2:47
: Is PCA really this good – or will the weak plate discipline hold him back?
2:47
: I mean, obviously he’s not THIS good
2:48
: but I think that he’s the kind of hitter who can succeed with poor discipline because everything else he does is so dynamic
2:48
: you can thin kof him like a luxury harrison bader, maybe. You don’t have to solve hitting to run a good enough wRC+ accrued largely in hot streaks, and then get everything else with your defense
2:49
: Juan Soto and Mrs. Met were in the closet making babies and I saw one of the babies and the baby looked at me
2:49
: is great Juan Soto heckling
2:49
: Kind of a wild question to ask but is Kyle Tucker losing himself money by not having a Soto like walk year? He’s on pace for 5ish WAR which for me is 200-300M range when you factor in age.
2:49
: We’ve got him on pace for 5.5 WAR which, yeah, would definitely represent a lower FA contract than I pegged him for before the year
2:50
: that said, he’s hitting the snot out of the ball, if his BABIP ends the year at his career .280 instead of .250 everything’s gonna look a lot better
2:50
: I don’t have social media, but if someone hasn’t pointed out the irony of Yankees fans being mad that someone else signed their big money free agents then I’m going to do it here
2:50
: Rhys Hoskins has bounced back in a big way in 2025. He is in the last year of his contract what do you think the brewers could get for him at the deadline if he keeps this up?
2:51
: unless they ate all the money
2:51
: and then…. very little
2:51
: i’m sorry, but a 1b only guy who isn’t going completely bonkers is just not going to move the needle
2:51
: if he turns it up a few notches, maybe cracks 10 bombs in the next 30 days, we’ll re-evaluate
2:51
: What’s the path forward for the Pirates? If there was ever an offseason to spend even just a little, this was it. So now what?
2:52
: I think they’re going to scapegoat Ben Cherington this winter and stagnate into a new era of irrelevance while fans increasingly curse Bob Nutting
2:52
: if the orioles hired you as the new GM today, what is your general strategy?
Punt this year? Start selling in July?
How much do you sell?
Bunker down and go big next offseason?
2:52
: So, this is off the cuff, but:
2:53
: this year’s over, they’re too far behind
2:54
: so I’d be willing to sell the upcoming free agents, though I’d be a bit hesitant on Mullins unless someone offers a haul.
2:54
: I like having a team leader guy like that and I’m not sold on Cowser as the long-term CF so I don’t have having him
2:56
: on ohtani vs judge, worth noting with everything going on and said, ohtanis actually taken #1 in xwoba now. wonder if the real results will begin lining up (babips normalize a bit?)
2:56
: ehhhhh…. xwOBA is so tough for these mega power guys
2:56
: because spray angle matters a lot more. the big boppers tend to underperform xwOBA (basically b/c hitting a homer 100 feet over the right field wall is skewing their results somewhat)
2:58
: Mr. Trade Value: How much are extra years of control worth? For example, does trading someone with 4 years of control vs 3 fetch a meaningfully different return? (Thinking of the Pirates and Skenes.)
2:58
: So, I’ve written about this some with pitchers before, but not usually guys of Skenes’s caliber
2:58
: the years matter a lot!
2:59
: I think I’d give up an extra 45+FV prospect equivalent in a return, or tier up what I’m offering, which is not a minor thing
3:00
: now, 5 years vs. 4 years is less of a difference than, say, 3 vs 2, at least to me
3:00
: but i’d be very interested in the extra years for pitchers because acquiring one with 2-ish years left and then having them get hurt is so bad
3:01
: Cache is on my list (as an inner sunset resident), as is Kothai Republic. Need to get back to the eastern side of the city more. Much appreciated!
3:01
: an oldie but a goodie, I’ll throw in Terra Cotta Warrior, went back recently and it was still incredible
3:02
: alright guys, I gotta run and make lunch
3:02
: guy who asks the lunch question, I’m reheating some tacos today (reheating the components with fresh tortillas, I’m not a monster)
3:02
: have a wonderful rest of your week
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
