rewrite this title How the Marlins Should Be Buying Prospects

The Marlins have added precisely four players to a 40-man roster that lost 100 games last season. Those four new acquisitions — infielder Eric Wagaman, catcher Liam Hicks, infielder Max Acosta and first baseman Matt Mervis — have boosted their currently NL-low payroll by … well, zero, basically. Wagaman signed a split big league deal as a free agent. Hicks was a Rule 5 pick. Acosta came over in the Jake Burger trade. Mervis was swapped for Vidal Brujan after the latter was designated for assignment in Miami.

The only team currently projected for a lower payroll than the Marlins is the Athletics, and the A’s have been active enough this winter that it still seems likely they’ll make an addition or two and leapfrog over the Fish. (A’s GM David Forst has already gone on record to say he’s hopeful of another addition or two.)

Right now, the Marlins project for a $67MM payroll, per RosterResource. Their projected CBT number is $84MM. Both numbers are due largely to the $12MM owed to the since-released Avisail Garcia, whose four-year contract concludes in 2025.

Even by the Marlins’ standards, the 2025 payroll is currently dipping to a new low when compared to recent seasons. Miami has trotted out payrolls of $84MM, $110MM and $106MM, respectively over the past three seasons. That’s not much, of course, but those numbers are lightyears higher than the current projection. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has suggested that the Marlins, like the A’s, may need to spend some additional funds to retain their revenue-sharing status. They haven’t been as stingy as the A’s in recent seasons, but the Fish certainly aren’t a paragon of aggressive roster maneuvering. Miami’s recent offseason activity (or lack thereof) doesn’t bode well for subsequent additions. Their lone free agent signing last offseason was Tim Anderson on a one-year, $5MM deal.

Miami did spend a combined $25MM on Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto the prior season, though that was under a different front office regime. Second-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has made it abundantly clear — through actions rather than words — that he had zero faith in the roster he inherited returning to contention after a surprise postseason berth in 2023.

The Fish waited barely more than a month into the 2024 season before trading Luis Arraez to the Padres, and when the deadline rolled around they traded away a staggering nine more players who’d opened the season on the roster. In a span of just three months, Bendix traded nearly 40% of his Opening Day roster (including JT Chargois and Huascar Brazoban, who were only off the Opening Day roster due to injury and visa issues, respectively.) Had Jesus Luzardo not been injured, Miami would likely have traded 11 of 26 players from the Opening Day club.

Given those trends, there’s little reason to think the Marlins will spend any meaningful money on the upcoming player payroll. And while the notion of “buying” prospects is suggested far, far more than it is actually put into practice — so much so that I’m often reluctant to dedicate much time thinking about the concept at all. However, given not only the specific position in which the Marlins find themselves but the broader context of this individual offseason, it feels like the Marlins are missing an opportunity if they’re not more seriously trying to drive this type of transaction.