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NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto will be posted for MLB clubs this offseason, according to an announcement made by the Yomiuri Giants and Okamoto himself during a press conference earlier today. Yahoo Sports Japan (Japanese language link) was among the outlets to report on the news, which comes on the heels of reporting last month that Okamoto was expected to be posted this winter.
Despite that previous reporting, the 29-year-old Okamoto’s was not viewed as a certain thing due in part to Yomiuri’s history of being reluctant to allow their star players to utilize the posting system. Okamoto certainly fits that description, seeing as he’s the club’s captain and a six-time All-Star with two Gold Gloves and three NPB home run titles to his name. He was limited to just 69 Central League games this year due to an elbow injury caused by a collision at first base, but in the 293 trips to the plate he managed to take he raked to the tune of a .327/.416/.598 slash line. He managed 15 homers, 21 doubles, and a triple in less than half a full season’s work with identical 11.3% strikeout and walk rates.
It’s that blend of power and discipline that has led teams to scout Okamoto for the past several years in anticipation of his eventual move stateside. Since his rookie age-22 season back in 2018, Okamoto has hit 274 home runs in 1,039 Central League games. He’s homered once every 16.2 plate appearances in that eight-year stretch with a 17.7% strikeout rate and a walk rate of 10.8%. It’s certainly an impressive resume, and his career .277/.361/.521 slash line in NPB compares quite favorably to the NPB slash lines of current big league sluggers Shohei Ohtani (.286/.358/.500) and Seiya Suzuki (.315/.414/.570). That Suzuki was a better hitter in NPB than Ohtani was should demonstrate the fact that NPB stats don’t always perfectly reflect how a player will perform in the majors.
Much of that is due to the lack of high-end velocity in NPB, which creates uncertainty about how hitters will handle the improved velocity in the majors. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph. Of course, some of those struggles could simply be due to limited exposure; Longenhagen notes that Okamoto saw only around 200 fastballs at that velocity all season last year. It’s entirely possible his numbers could improve against high-end velocity with more experience facing those types of pitchers, but it’s nonetheless a concern interested clubs will need to consider as they weigh a pursuit of Okamoto’s services.
Another consideration is where Okamoto will be able to play. He’s played around 60% of his NPB games at third base, but has also received plenty of time at first base with an increased workload at that position in recent years plus occasional starts in the outfield corners. One of the corner infield spots seems most likely to be his defensive home in the majors, and while it’s certainly possible there are MLB clubs that view Okamoto as a capable third baseman, Jeff Passan of ESPN suggests that at least some teams view him as better suited for first base, where he’s drawn rave reviews defensively for his work in Japan.
Now that Okamoto is poised to be posted, he’s sure to draw significant multi-year interest in the majors. He’ll face competition from fellow NPB corner infielder Munetaka Murakami in the posting market this winter, who is four years younger than Okamoto with a .270/.394/.557 NPB slash line that’s even more impressive. In terms of stateside players, the biggest names on the first base market are Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, and Luis Arraez while the third base market is headlined by Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suarez. The Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Angels, and Padres are among the teams who need help at at least one corner infield spot this winter, while teams like the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Phillies, and Tigers could also make sense depending on how the rest of their roster decisions play out.
Okamoto won’t be officially posted for some time yet, as that process typically begins between late November and mid December. Once he’s been posted, MLB teams will have 45 days to negotiate a contract with Okamoto. The club that ultimately lands him with owe the Yomiuri Giants a posting fee on top of Okamoto’s contract. That fee adds up to 20% of the first $25MM spent on Okamoto, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any spending over $50MM. As an example, when the Cubs signed Suzuki during the 2021-22 offseason, the posting fee on that $85MM deal came in at roughly $14.6MM. The posting fee on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers, meanwhile, came in at approximately $50.6MM.
