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With an off day on Monday and a huge five-game home series on the horizon against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Chicago Cubs’ potential for winning the National League Central just keeps sliding downhill.
According to FanGraphs, the Cubs entered Monday with just an 18.8 percent chance to win the division. Compare that to the 81.1 percent chance the Brewers have to secure the NL Central’s top spot and it’s easy to see just how impactful the next few games could be on the North Side.
After a three-game series in Toronto against the Blue Jays, Chicago returns to Wrigley Field for eight division games, hosting the Pirates for three before Milwaukee invades for five games (including the make-up game from June 18 that was postponed by weather). Those five games will also be the last time the Cubs face Milwaukee this season, with the season series so far split 4-4.
For the Cubs, the urgency comes after recent play has taken a hit on their record. On June 17, the Cubs were 45-28 and had a 6.5-game lead on the Brewers in the division. They also had an 80.3 percent chance (per FanGraphs) to win the NL Central. Milwaukee’s number at the time was just 8.7 percent.
However, Chicago has gone just 22-22 since that time. Meanwhile, the Brewers have evolved into one of baseball’s best teams, going 17-4 since the All-Star break and leapfrogging the Cubs in the division standings, holding a six-game lead over Chicago entering their Monday home game against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
With that in mind, it’s very possible the upcoming Cubs-Brewers series could determine if Milwaukee will have an unbreakable stranglehold on the division or if Chicago has a chance to be more than just a wild-card team in 2025.
Right now, the numbers are saying that could well be Chicago’s fate, a stark turnaround from the projections in late June.
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