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Jackson Holliday is under the microscope as he strives to evolve into a consistent force for the Baltimore Orioles. The 21-year-old former No. 1 pick isn’t just under pressure to improve — he’s expected to help lift a team fighting to regain its footing.
Holliday’s rookie season was a lesson in extremes. After a rough start — a .059 average with 18 strikeouts in just 10 games — he was sent down to Triple-A.
A brief revival followed his July 31 recall, highlighted by a 10-game stretch where he blasted five home runs. But that spark fizzled out as he finished the season hitting .189 with 50 strikeouts in August and September, a performance that cost him a chance to contribute in the wild-card round.
Holliday’s challenges take on added weight in a season where FanGraphs projects the Orioles to drop to 83 wins, down from 101 in 2023 and 91 last year, with just a 45.4 percent chance of making the playoffs in the competitive AL East.
In a quiet offseason for Baltimore, the organization made only a handful of notable moves — signing outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sanchez on Dec. 10, 2024 — while losing impactful pieces like right fielder Anthony Santander, who powered 44 homers last season, and pitcher Corbin Burnes, who opted for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Even veteran catcher Adley Rutschman, the other former No. 1 overall pick, saw his offensive production dip as his OPS fell 100 points from 2023 to 2024. With starting pitching expected to be led by Zach Eflin, the club’s offensive woes have placed a heavier burden on young players like Holliday.
Determined to change his trajectory, Holliday underwent a physical transformation this offseason. He arrived at Orioles camp tipping the scales at 200 pounds, up from 188, after a rigorous strength training regimen and a protein-rich diet.
“I pretty much had ground beef for breakfast every day,” Holliday told The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka. This newfound muscle mass is intended to fortify his approach at the plate and support his swing against major league pitchers.
Holliday’s raw talent is evident in advanced metrics. His hard-hit percentage, sitting at 45.1 percent, reveals a tendency to make quality contact. Statcast defines a hard-hit ball as one exiting at 95 mph or faster, a statistic that bodes well for converting potential into production.
Yet, the challenge remains to refine his swing to reduce strikeouts and consistently capitalize on those hard-hit opportunities.
“I know what I need to do. I know I need to cut down strikeouts and continue to hit mistakes and hit fastballs,” Holliday told MLB.com’s Jake Rill.
While FanGraphs projects a modest 2.4 WAR for him in 2025, the Orioles are dreaming bigger. They hope Holliday can mature into a 4- to 5-WAR player, an All-Star-level contribution that would mirror, albeit in a different way, the breakout trajectory of teammate Gunnar Henderson. Such a performance could reinvigorate an offense in dire need of reliable production.
Pressure mounts not only from the team’s overall struggles but also from his lineage. As the son of former MLB All-Star Matt Holliday, expectations are high.
Jackson Holliday’s journey represents both the potential for a breakthrough and the harsh reality of Major League Baseball. If he can harness his improved physicality and raw power while tightening his approach, the sky may very well be the limit for this young infielder.
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