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The Orioles have reunited with Zach Eflin on a one-year, $10MM deal with a mutual option for the 2027 season. The team has officially announced the signing, and designated outfielder Will Robertson for assignment in a corresponding move to create room on the 40-man roster. Eflin is represented by O’Connell Sports Management.
The $10MM guarantee breaks down as a $5MM salary, a $3MM signing bonus, and then a $2MM buyout on the mutual option. As a reminder, mutual options are virtually never exercised by both parties, so Eflin’s deal is for all intents and purposes just a one-year pact. There is some significant bonus money involved, as both Eflin’s buyout and option will increase by $1MM if he makes at least 15 starts, then by $1.5MM if he makes at 20 starts, and one final increase of $2.5MM if he hits the 25-start threshold. The mutual option’s buyout can therefore max out at $7MM.
Baltimore has been linked to several top-tier free agent pitchers this winter, and the O’s also just swung a notable trade to land a hurler with frontline potential in Shane Baz. The 32-year-old Eflin might settle into the back of the rotation, especially given his uncertain injury status. Eflin underwent a back surgery in August that came with a rather broad recovery timeline of 4-8 months, so the fact that he has now signed a contract after four months perhaps hints that his rehab is going smoothly.
The Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich hears from a source that the Orioles are hoping Eflin can “make his season debut early in the year,” with his ramp-up process starting “early in Spring Training.” Once Eflin is ready, he’ll slot in as the fourth or fifth starter in a projected rotation that includes Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, and Baz. Tyler Wells had a line on a rotation spot but might move into a bullpen or swingman role once Eflin returns. Albert Suarez is another swingman candidate, plus Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, and Brandon Young are further rotation depth options in the upper minors.
If Baltimore still wanted to make a splash by signing or trading for more of a proven ace, the Eflin signing likely isn’t an obstacle. Given how many injuries the Orioles rotation suffered in 2025, it is no surprise that the team wants as much depth as possible to both cover innings and deliver quality results going forward.
Eflin’s own injury woes contributed to the Orioles’ health problems, as lat and back injuries resulted in three separate stints on the injured list for the righty last year. Eflin was limited to just 71 1/3 innings over 14 starts, and he struggled to a 5.93 ERA and a 16.2% strikeout rate. The righty’s 4.2% walk rate was still excellent, however, and since a lot of the damage off Eflin came via a spike in his homer rate, his 4.49 SIERA was more respectable than his real-world ERA.
This isn’t the first time Eflin was plagued by injuries, as persistent knee issues bothered the right-hander earlier in his career with the Phillies, though he posted solid results when healthy. In what counted as a significant outlay for the low-budget Rays, Tampa Bay inked Eflin to a three-year, $40MM contract during the 2022-23 offseason, and he ended up delivering the highest two innings totals of his career over the first two seasons of the deal — 177 2/3 IP in 2023, 165 1/3 IP in 2024.
The durability was backed up by a 3.54 ERA, 3.5% walk rate, and 23.1% strikeout rate over those 343 innings, though Eflin’s K% dropped off considerably from 26.5% in 2023 to 19.6% in 2024. Since the Rays are always looking to trim the budget and reload with younger talent, Tampa dealt Eflin to the Orioles at the 2024 deadline, with the O’s absorbing all of the money remaining on Eflin’s $11MM salary for the 2024 season and his $18MM salary for 2025. While his 2025 campaign was a wash, Eflin did pitch well down the stretch for the Orioles in 2024 to help the team reach the postseason.
Tampa Bay was the only team publicly linked to Eflin’s market this winter, but he’ll now instead return to one of his other former teams in his attempt at a rebound season. The Orioles know better than any other club about the right-hander’s health situation, and the upside is obvious if Eflin can return to his old form. At the time of his season-ending surgery, Eflin was also quite vocal about his desire to return to Batlimore in free agency, and now his wish has come true.
Eflin’s $10MM commitment brings the Orioles’ 2026 payroll up to roughly $147.3MM, as per RosterResource. Since the O’s finished the 2025 campaign with a payroll of approximately $160.1MM, there’s still more room to spend for a team that already made one of the winter’s blockbuster signings in the Pete Alonso contract. Baltimore could further spend on a free agent starter like Ranger Suarez or Framber Valdez, or perhaps again tip into its minor league depth for another significant trade.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to break the news on Eflin’s one-year pact with the Orioles. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman had the $10MM guaranteed, and Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner reported that the detail of the mutual option. FanSided’s Robert Murray had the salary breakdown and the information about the bonus structure.
Inset photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher — Imagn Images
