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The Red Sox will call up pitching prospect Payton Tolle to make his big league debut tomorrow, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’ll be a fantastic pitching matchup, as he goes against Paul Skenes in a series opener at Fenway Park. Skenes will coincidentally be matched against a pitcher making his MLB debut for the second straight outing, as the Rockies tabbed McCade Brown as his opponent last weekend.
It’s the latest step in a breakout season for Tolle. Boston signed the 6’6″ southpaw to a $2MM bonus after drafting him in the second round out of TCU last summer. They kept him at their complex in his draft year rather than assigning him to a minor league affiliate. That allowed them to manage his innings going into this year.
The Sox certainly didn’t expect Tolle would be in the big leagues a year later. He began this season in High-A, striking out 38% of opponents over 11 appearances. That earned him a move to Double-A in June. Tolle pitched his way past that level within six weeks, recording a 1.67 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 27 innings. He has been at Triple-A Worcester for all of three weeks.
Tolle hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down at the top minor league level. He has fanned 17 hitters with a pair of walks in his first 15 Triple-A frames. Opponents have swung through 14% of his offerings in his three starts. Tolle’s fastball has sat in the 95-96 MPH range. He also uses a low-90s cutter, a slider, curveball and changeup among a deep arsenal.
Along the way, Tolle has vaulted towards the top of the organization’s prospect rankings. He’s second in the system at Baseball America behind Marcelo Mayer. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him third among Sox prospects and 71st overall when he updated his Top 100 list shortly before the trade deadline. (Mayer had graduated from the FanGraphs list, where Tolle was behind Franklin Arias and Kyson Witherspoon.) Last week, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN ranked Tolle as a top 35 overall prospect and had him second after Arias in the system.
While the 22-year-old has certainly impressed evaluators, the aggressive promotion is also related to Boston’s rotation woes. Walker Buehler pitched his way out of the starting five and is locked into a bullpen role for the rest of the season. Richard Fitts appeared to get the first opportunity to replace Buehler, but he came out of Monday’s game with arm discomfort. He’s on the 15-day injured list with arm neuritis. Swingman Cooper Criswell landed on the minor league injured list last week.
The Sox needed to promote a fifth starter. The decision came down to Tolle versus Kyle Harrison. The latter is already on the 40-man roster and seemed to be the favorite for the job. Harrison has still yet to get a look from the Sox since they acquired him as the headliner of the Rafael Devers return. He has a solid 3.65 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts, but he’s walked nearly 12% of opposing hitters with a league average 21.5% strikeout rate. Boston evidently feels Tolle gives them a better shot to win.
Dustin May had been lined up for Friday’s turn through the rotation. He’ll move back a day and take the ball against Johan Oviedo on Saturday. Lucas Giolito will pitch the series finale with Brayan Bello and Garrett Crochet on turn for the first two games of next week’s series against the Guardians. Tolle would be lined up for the final game of that set if he gets a second start.
Boston will select his contract tomorrow. They can open a 40-man roster spot by moving Mayer to the 60-day injured list. He underwent season-ending wrist surgery earlier this month. They will need to make an active roster move involving a pitcher. Assuming they don’t want to designate Buehler for assignment, they’ll probably option southpaw Brennan Bernardino back to Triple-A. Teams will be able to carry a 14th pitcher beginning on September 1.
The Red Sox are now committed to carrying Tolle on the 40-man throughout the offseason. That’s the biggest roster consideration, as he would not have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter. Tolle will not reach 45 days on an MLB roster this year. He’ll remain a rookie going into next season, keeping open the possibility of earning the Sox a future draft pick if they carry him for a full service year in 2026. Tolle will certainly meet the prospect criteria to be eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive.
