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At the end of April, I wrote about whether the Baltimore Orioles could salvage the 2025 season after a dreadful start. Their record stood at 11-17, a decent-sized hole to be sure, but it wasn’t deep enough to be considered a grave. Baltimore still had a chance to turn things around and make a playoff run, so long as the team started winning quickly. Now, nearly two months later, the O’s are 10 wins under .500, and considering we’re one week away from July, the mathematical task to get back into the race is daunting.
The Orioles have actually played better baseball lately, which highlights the fundamental problem with getting to play meaningful games in October. I’d call May 24 their nadir, when the first loss of a doubleheader dropped them to a 16-34 record, just barely ahead of the White Sox, and a 110-loss pace. Charm City has seen some abysmal teams, but only two years of Baltimore baseball featured at least 110 losses; those were 2018 and 2021, during the franchise’s notoriously painful rebuild. Even the 1988 Orioles, who infamously started the season by dropping 21 straight games, recovered enough to manage 54 wins! Beginning with the second game of that May 24 doubleheader, Baltimore has put up a solid 18-10 record. While that sounds promising, it’s actually kind of bad news when we’re talking playoffs. Those 28 games represent just under a fifth of an entire season, and playing really well over this stretch was only enough to increase the team’s playoff probability from 1.5% to 4.4% using the FanGraphs Depth Charts odds, and from 2.6% to 5.0% in the ZiPS projected standings.
A lot of the talk about the Orioles was that if they could just get adequate pitching, they could turn the season around. Well, they certainly did get that over this time period, with the most WAR of any pitching staff in baseball!
Team Pitching, 5/24-6/23
Team
W
L
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
ERA
FIP
WAR
Orioles
17
10
237.0
9.80
2.70
0.87
3.46
3.15
4.6
Braves
11
15
229.3
10.67
3.02
0.98
3.45
3.27
4.1
Astros
18
8
233.3
11.07
2.74
1.31
3.70
3.63
4.0
Rangers
13
13
229.7
7.92
2.63
0.82
3.25
3.46
3.9
Cardinals
14
13
242.0
7.74
2.42
0.89
4.28
3.55
3.6
Padres
14
14
249.7
8.58
3.39
0.94
3.89
3.81
3.5
Pirates
13
14
238.3
7.40
2.76
0.94
3.47
3.79
3.4
Giants
14
12
230.7
9.17
3.36
0.86
3.24
3.50
3.3
Angels
13
14
241.3
8.73
3.43
1.19
3.80
4.11
3.1
Rays
18
9
242.7
9.05
2.37
1.19
3.26
3.74
2.9
Brewers
18
8
234.0
8.88
3.27
1.12
3.42
3.92
2.9
Phillies
13
13
230.3
8.13
2.97
1.33
4.26
4.24
2.6
Cubs
15
11
234.0
7.27
2.27
1.19
3.69
4.05
2.6
Mets
15
12
241.0
8.18
3.73
0.93
3.88
3.98
2.5
Red Sox
13
13
231.7
8.62
3.85
1.13
3.88
4.20
2.4
Yankees
14
13
240.7
8.79
2.73
1.27
3.78
4.04
2.4
Reds
15
11
227.7
7.99
3.20
1.30
4.15
4.45
2.4
Royals
10
15
222.7
8.45
3.40
1.05
4.12
3.94
2.4
Tigers
16
10
230.3
8.09
2.85
1.09
3.87
3.91
2.2
Marlins
11
15
231.3
7.59
2.88
1.01
3.93
3.97
2.1
Guardians
10
15
218.7
8.27
3.66
0.99
3.58
4.05
2.0
White Sox
8
19
237.0
7.59
3.57
1.18
4.56
4.45
2.0
Twins
8
19
237.7
8.03
3.22
1.44
6.17
4.56
1.8
Blue Jays
16
10
229.0
8.88
3.66
1.18
4.36
4.22
1.5
Dodgers
16
11
241.0
7.95
3.62
1.38
4.48
4.73
1.3
Diamondbacks
14
12
230.7
8.54
3.32
1.37
4.88
4.44
1.1
Rockies
9
17
230.0
7.00
3.40
1.49
5.13
4.88
0.7
Nationals
9
18
240.0
7.54
2.85
1.65
4.80
4.95
0.6
Athletics
10
17
236.7
7.61
3.54
1.56
5.63
5.02
-0.4
Mariners
11
15
233.3
8.41
2.97
1.81
4.47
4.97
-0.4
In other words, a key condition to getting back into the race has been fulfilled for the last month and… it still just barely moved the needle.
Another positive of the last month or so was Adley Rutschman, who had finally caught fire after a brutal start to the season. The All-Star catcher had an 84 wRC+ through May 20, as Davy Andrews noted earlier today, but has a mark of 129 since then. Unfortunately, Rutschman was placed on the IL over the weekend with a left oblique strain and is expected to be out through the All-Star break.
For all these reasons, even though Baltimore’s chances of reaching the playoffs aren’t exactly zero, the odds are long enough that it’s hard to make the case for staying the course or trying to improve for this season. The 2024 Tigers, of course, made an improbable postseason run and then took out the Astros in the Wild Card Series, but it would be irresponsible to use that Detroit team as evidence to inspire a similar turnaround. At this time last year, the Tigers were only five games below .500, and at their worst, they were nine games under — only half as bad as the Orioles were at their lowest point this season. And even then, the Tigers didn’t act like they had a real shot at the playoffs. Before the deadline, they traded Jack Flaherty, Carson Kelly, Andrew Chafin, and Mark Canha to contending clubs for prospects.
If this were fundamentally the end of the line for this O’s core, I could see the argument for rolling the dice and trying to make one final push for the playoffs, even if banking on that outcome would be a wild gamble. But most of Baltimore’s impactful offensive players are set to return next season, so there isn’t any cause for desperation. Moreover, it doesn’t look like next year’s team will have remotely enough pitching to support its lineup, either. Here are the updated 2026 ZiPS projections for the plausible in-house rotation candidates:
2026 ZiPS Projections – Orioles Starting Pitcher Candidates
Player
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
FIP
WAR
Kyle Bradish
29
6
4
3.59
19
19
100.3
87
44
40
10
32
97
111
3.74
1.8
Grayson Rodriguez
26
6
5
3.83
18
18
98.7
89
46
42
12
30
104
104
3.78
1.5
Cade Povich
26
8
7
4.23
26
26
132.0
125
68
62
16
48
127
94
4.06
1.4
Dean Kremer
30
8
9
4.36
26
26
138.3
139
73
67
19
45
113
91
4.41
1.2
Trevor Rogers
28
5
5
4.44
22
22
107.3
109
58
53
13
37
87
89
4.33
0.9
Brandon Young
27
4
4
4.34
20
19
83.0
82
44
40
11
28
73
92
4.33
0.8
Tyler Wells
31
4
4
4.50
20
14
76.0
70
41
38
12
23
64
88
4.57
0.5
Chayce McDermott
27
4
6
4.68
20
17
82.7
75
47
43
10
48
84
85
4.64
0.4
Roansy Contreras
26
4
5
4.46
35
11
84.7
83
46
42
12
31
70
89
4.61
0.4
Kyle Brnovich
28
3
5
4.78
19
15
81.0
80
47
43
11
33
67
83
4.84
0.3
Patrick Reilly
24
4
4
4.81
20
19
78.7
76
46
42
11
37
66
83
5.00
0.3
Nobody here currently projects to reach 2.0 WAR in 2026, and neither of the Orioles’ top two pitchers — Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez — has thrown a pitch in 2025 due to injury. Bradish was excellent in 2023 and still has upside, but 2026 will be his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Rodriguez, whom I’m as high on as anyone, has seen his season derailed by elbow inflammation and now lat issues. A team with playoff aspirations can hope for both to return in top form, but it would be reckless to count on it.
The organization is also devoid of pitching talent in the upper minors, so reinforcements aren’t on the way from within, and as this past offseason made clear, there’s no guarantee that Baltimore will improve its pitching through free agency. Instead, trading players who are eligible to hit free agency at the end of this season would give this team an opportunity to add some arms who could contribute to the 2026 or 2027 pitching staffs. Including the Orioles, there are currently eight teams with less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs, according to our Depth Charts odds; of those eight clubs, the O’s have some of the best deadline players to offer. Selling this summer could set them up well for the short-term future.
Below are the rest-of-season projections for all the players on those eight teams who are eligible to hit free agency after 2025 or 2026.
ZiPS RoS – 2025/2026 FA, Teams <5% Playoff Odds
Player
Team
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
HR
RBI
BB
SB
wRC+
OPS+
WAR
Cedric Mullins
BAL
.241
.313
.418
232
32
56
12
9
33
23
11
104
108
1.3
Nathaniel Lowe
WAS
.264
.342
.410
273
32
72
11
9
38
31
1
118
113
1.1
Luis Urías
ATH
.236
.329
.385
195
25
46
8
7
22
23
2
111
100
1.1
Ryan O’Hearn
BAL
.276
.341
.463
203
28
56
9
9
30
19
2
126
129
1.0
Taylor Ward
LAA
.239
.314
.448
259
37
62
13
13
39
27
2
111
111
1.0
Ramón Laureano
BAL
.251
.319
.443
167
23
42
9
7
23
13
4
114
117
0.9
Ramón Urías
BAL
.259
.324
.410
166
20
43
8
5
22
15
1
106
110
0.9
Yoán Moncada
LAA
.242
.326
.408
157
20
38
9
5
21
18
1
107
105
0.8
Miguel Andujar
ATH
.277
.319
.419
191
22
53
10
5
23
11
2
114
106
0.8
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
PIT
.269
.318
.352
219
25
59
10
2
19
12
7
91
86
0.8
Travis d’Arnaud
LAA
.226
.291
.394
137
15
31
8
5
17
10
0
91
90
0.8
Michael A. Taylor
CHA
.216
.284
.359
153
20
33
5
5
16
14
6
79
80
0.8
Gio Urshela
ATH
.264
.304
.382
178
16
47
10
3
20
11
0
98
92
0.7
Jorge Mateo
BAL
.223
.268
.374
139
19
31
8
3
14
8
12
76
83
0.7
Mike Tauchman
CHA
.238
.348
.384
151
25
36
8
4
16
24
2
110
107
0.7
Dylan Carlson
BAL
.244
.330
.372
172
23
42
8
4
23
20
3
100
102
0.6
Andrew McCutchen
PIT
.239
.338
.388
201
25
48
9
7
24
29
2
109
102
0.6
Scott Kingery
LAA
.232
.286
.370
181
23
42
6
5
20
13
5
79
83
0.6
Seth Brown
ATH
.240
.300
.443
183
21
44
8
9
26
15
2
114
106
0.6
LaMonte Wade Jr.
LAA
.228
.340
.386
171
23
39
7
6
21
28
1
106
104
0.5
Jorge Soler
LAA
.222
.312
.413
230
32
51
11
11
33
28
0
104
102
0.5
Thairo Estrada
COL
.263
.307
.403
186
25
49
9
5
25
8
4
84
88
0.5
Paul DeJong
WAS
.202
.261
.363
168
19
34
6
7
20
11
2
76
75
0.5
Orlando Arcia
COL
.247
.302
.387
194
20
48
9
6
25
15
1
78
82
0.4
Austin Slater
CHA
.240
.333
.375
104
15
25
5
3
11
13
2
102
100
0.4
Adam Frazier
PIT
.247
.310
.351
194
23
48
9
3
18
15
3
87
84
0.4
Luis Rengifo
LAA
.245
.295
.351
208
23
51
8
4
22
13
6
80
81
0.4
Sam Hilliard
COL
.231
.303
.425
186
26
43
9
7
25
20
5
86
92
0.4
Ryan Mountcastle
BAL
.255
.299
.413
235
28
60
13
8
31
15
1
98
103
0.3
Austin Wynns
ATH
.238
.304
.357
84
9
20
4
2
10
7
0
94
86
0.3
Josh Bell
WAS
.229
.312
.396
245
28
56
9
10
31
28
0
104
99
0.3
Josh Rojas
CHA
.228
.305
.328
180
23
41
9
3
16
20
5
78
79
0.3
Kyle Farmer
COL
.244
.303
.384
172
17
42
10
4
21
11
1
78
82
0.2
Amed Rosario
WAS
.267
.300
.376
202
24
54
9
3
21
8
5
92
91
0.2
Chris Taylor
LAA
.226
.311
.361
133
19
30
7
3
15
15
3
90
88
0.1
Gary Sánchez
BAL
.214
.297
.389
131
15
28
5
6
19
13
0
94
96
0.1
Anthony Rendon
LAA
.240
.333
.333
75
8
18
4
1
7
9
1
92
89
0.1
Kevin Newman
LAA
.236
.280
.329
140
16
33
7
2
12
8
3
67
70
0.1
Tommy Pham
PIT
.235
.306
.352
196
24
46
9
4
18
20
4
88
83
-0.1
ZiPS RoS – 2025/2026 FA, Teams <5% Playoff Odds
Player
NewTm
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
FIP
ERA+
WAR
Zach Eflin
BAL
4
4
3.89
13
12
71.7
71
33
31
10
12
56
3.88
102
1.0
Tyler Anderson
LAA
3
4
4.42
13
13
75.3
74
40
37
11
27
61
4.51
94
0.8
Andrew Heaney
PIT
3
4
4.36
14
13
66.0
65
34
32
10
22
57
4.46
96
0.8
Tomoyuki Sugano
BAL
4
4
4.11
10
10
61.3
66
30
28
10
11
39
4.47
97
0.7
Trevor Rogers
BAL
2
2
4.26
13
13
61.3
62
31
29
7
22
51
4.03
93
0.6
Cal Quantrill
MIA
4
5
4.79
13
13
67.7
72
39
36
9
26
50
4.62
91
0.6
Caleb Ferguson
PIT
1
1
3.14
32
1
28.7
24
11
10
1
11
29
2.93
133
0.6
Martín Pérez
CHA
2
2
4.34
12
10
56.0
58
29
27
6
21
42
4.16
93
0.6
Keegan Akin
BAL
1
1
3.41
27
2
34.3
29
14
13
4
10
39
3.24
117
0.6
Adrian Houser
CHA
3
3
4.36
13
9
53.7
52
28
26
6
20
39
4.32
93
0.5
Aaron Civale
CHA
2
5
5.59
12
12
58.0
69
39
36
10
19
49
4.69
82
0.5
David Bednar
PIT
2
2
3.34
31
0
29.7
26
12
11
3
10
34
3.17
126
0.5
Dennis Santana
PIT
1
1
3.52
29
1
30.7
26
13
12
2
11
29
3.17
119
0.5
Austin Gomber
COL
2
2
5.10
11
10
54.7
60
33
31
9
16
40
4.65
87
0.4
Germán Márquez
COL
4
5
5.19
11
11
59.0
64
36
34
7
21
46
4.19
86
0.4
Charlie Morton
BAL
4
5
4.73
14
13
72.3
70
41
38
10
31
71
4.45
84
0.4
Andrew Kittredge
BAL
1
1
3.51
27
0
25.7
25
11
10
4
7
24
4.13
113
0.3
Gregory Soto
BAL
2
1
3.58
31
0
27.7
23
12
11
2
11
32
3.08
111
0.3
Brock Burke
LAA
2
2
4.02
27
1
31.3
29
15
14
4
11
31
3.87
104
0.3
Michael Soroka
WAS
3
3
4.72
13
8
47.7
45
27
25
7
17
45
4.38
86
0.3
Kyle Finnegan
WAS
2
1
3.77
29
0
28.7
27
13
12
3
10
26
3.74
108
0.3
Sean Newcomb
OAK
1
2
4.18
12
2
23.7
27
12
11
2
11
22
3.80
98
0.3
Derek Law
WAS
1
1
4.00
24
1
27.0
27
13
12
3
10
23
4.00
102
0.2
Tyler Alexander
CHA
4
4
4.88
16
6
55.3
58
32
30
10
13
46
4.54
83
0.2
Kenley Jansen
LAA
2
1
4.01
26
0
24.7
21
12
11
4
9
26
4.26
104
0.2
Seranthony Dominguez
BAL
2
1
3.90
29
0
27.7
23
13
12
4
13
31
4.20
102
0.2
Tim Mayza
PIT
0
1
3.98
24
0
20.3
21
10
9
2
7
16
3.92
105
0.2
Andrew Chafin
WAS
1
1
4.01
28
0
24.7
23
12
11
3
14
26
4.34
101
0.1
Kyle Hendricks
LAA
3
5
5.23
13
12
62.0
68
39
36
10
18
43
4.76
80
0.1
José Leclerc
OAK
1
1
4.21
24
0
25.7
22
13
12
4
13
29
4.44
98
0.1
Trevor Williams
WAS
3
4
5.18
11
10
48.7
54
30
28
7
15
38
4.40
79
0.1
T.J. McFarland
OAK
0
1
4.50
27
0
22.0
24
12
11
2
7
15
4.08
91
0.0
Tyler Kinley
COL
1
2
5.40
28
0
26.7
26
17
16
4
14
28
4.58
83
-0.2
Not every player on this list will be seriously shopped. For example, I don’t expect the Angels to throw in the towel on 2025 unless July is a disaster; if anything, I could see them soft buying, as Mike Trout isn’t getting any younger. There are also some potential trade candidates who aren’t listed above, such as Sandy Alcantara, and more teams will enter the fold in the coming weeks; after a few recent injuries to key contributors, the Diamondbacks seem more likely to sell than their playoff odds would suggest. But I think overall this is a good, quick look at the types of players who could be available at the deadline.
As you probably assumed, the Orioles have a few of the best hitters to offer before the deadline. Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn would be great additions to almost every contending club’s lineup, and many postseason hopefuls could certainly benefit from acquiring depth pieces like Ramón Laureano, Ramón Urias, Jorge Mateo, and Dylan Carlson. The O’s also have the top ZiPS-projected pitcher on these eight teams, and three of the top five pitchers overall. There’s always the option to hold onto these guys in order to sign them long-term, but if that’s the case, Baltimore should be negotiating extensions right now instead of trying to bring them back after they’ve hit free agency. If the two sides can’t work out an extension over the next month and a week before the deadline, then the O’s should trade them.
Despite some red flags in the rotation, there were plenty of reasons to like the Orioles when this season began. Things just haven’t worked out. But that doesn’t mean they are destined for another extended playoff drought. Indeed, the foundation is still there for them to win, as long as they properly build upon it. This season is over. It’s time to focus on 2026 and beyond.
