rewrite this title Why Blue Jays should, and should not, add top free-agent slugger

The Toronto Blue Jays and first baseman Pete Alonso have been linked throughout the offseason.

There are conflicting reports as to whether or not the Blue Jays and Alonso are getting closer to a contract. Andy Martino of SNY was one of several people to report that talks between the two sides are advancing. However, Shi Davidi from Sportsnet disputes that statement, saying that the talks are “not gaining momentum.” 

Chances are, if the Blue Jays do sign Alonso, it would require another significant contract. The first baseman reportedly wanted a contract exceeding Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson. However, there are risks with such a deal. Let’s look at three reasons why the Blue Jays should sign Pete Alonso and three reasons why they should walk away.

He would add another power threat to the lineup

First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only remaining member of the 2024 Blue Jays to have an OPS+ over 100 and more than 100 plate appearances. They recently signed Anthony Santander will provide some protection for Guerrero in the lineup. Alonso, who has hit more than 30 homers in every full season in his six-year career, would make the lineup that much deeper.

Signing Alonso shows commitment to contend

The Blue Jays have an elephant in the room in Guerrero. He is in the final year of his contract and has given the Blue Jays until the start of spring training to negotiate an extension. Guerrero may also want to see that the Blue Jays are serious about contending for the playoffs before committing to a long-term deal. Adding Alonso would show exactly that.

Alonso would step in for Guerrero if he leaves

According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Guerrero would prefer to play third base this season instead of first. Regardless of his position, Guerrero’s potential departure after the 2025 season would leave a significant hole in the lineup. Alonso would already be in place to soften that impact as much as possible.

While Alonso makes sense, there are reasons to move on.

How much would Alonso want to be in Toronto?

The Blue Jays have had difficulty attracting top free agents before signing outfielder Anthony Santander. While Alonso would further show that stars will go to Toronto, it is fair to wonder if he truly wants to be there. Alonso clearly wants to stay with the Mets, even reportedly offering the Mets a short-term deal to do so.

Alonso is trending in a concerning direction

While Alonso has been a consistent power threat, his recent performance shows reason for concern. His OPS dropped by 81 points between 2022 and 2024 while his strikeout rate climbed six percent. Alonso has hit 80 homers over the past two seasons, but has a disappointing .229/.324/.480 batting line in his 1353 plate appearances. His 34 homers in 2024 were the lowest of any full season. 

Was Alonso pressing because of extension talks and/or free agency or is he starting to decline? 

How much longer can Alonso play first base?

Alonso is not a great defensive first baseman. While he is passable, he is a significant defensive downgrade from Guerrero. In all likelihood, Alonso will need to become a designated hitter in the near future. The same holds true for Santander. 

Bringing Alonso in, especially on a longer term deal, could be an even riskier proposition.