RosterResource Chat Recap – January 10, 2025

Jason Martinez

Those projections can change depending on how things are going in the spring or if the team gives any indication of where things are headed. Campbell might just win the job early in the season (or by Opening Day) and never relinquish it. Hamilton showed enough last season that he could go into spring training as the favorite (assuming they don’t add another player to be their starting 2B) and then how long he holds the job will be based on his performance. But seems like it’s only a matter of time before Campbell is in Boston.

2:09

$105M: Are the A’s the only team needing a payroll of $105M this year?  There are other teams below $105M, do they have to reach it too?  Why just the A‛s?  Thanks.

2:12

Jon Becker: There’s been a little bit of a misconception here, and this question is a good chance for me to explain this! The A’s don’t have to have a payroll of $105M, but if they don’t, the burden of proof in a grievance shifts from the MLBPA to them — meaning the A’s have to defend themselves rather than the MLBPA having to operate as if they’ll be presumed innocent. But grievances take years, so there’s no immediate punishment that happens if they aren’t at $105M. I know the Marlins also will be receiving the same revenue sharing money that the A’s will, unclear which other teams are also set to.

2:12

Or Elvis: When we say a prospect had a cup of coffee in the majors, I think Orelvis‛s stat line applies. He was raking for awhile there in the minors before his suspension. What are you hearing on him, and any reason to think he could break camp with the team?

2:14

Jason Martinez: If the Jays go into spring training with Ernie Clement as the projected starter at 3B and don’t bring in any competition, that would tell me that they really believe in Orelvis making an impact at some point in 2025. Clement is a perfectly fine stop-gap. I don’t think they’ll stand pat, though, so Orelvis’ 2025 will be all about bouncing back and getting ready to take over at 2B or 3B in 2026. Or maybe by the trade deadline.

2:15

David Stearns: What do you see the Mets doing the rest of the offseason other than resigning Pete?

2:17

Jon Becker: If we presuppose they bring Alonso back (not a given but that’s certainly what I think is likeliest), I think they could use another starting-caliber hitter as Marte/McNeil insurance, preferably someone who can play both INF and OF. Not any great options fitting the bill on the FA market but Willi Castro comes to mind as a plausible trade option with the Twins wanting to cut payroll.

2:17

BC26: Do you really buy NYY going with Cabrera/LeMahieu at 3B on Opening Day?

2:20

Jason Martinez: I do not. Not many 3B options if they don’t trade for Arenado — thus, the Paul DeJong rumor from yesterday — but they could just leave Jazz at 3B and add one of the 2B options (Brendan Rodgers, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco, Ha-Seong Kim, Luis Arraez trade?)

2:20

Mr. Burrito: Could you see D. Rushing carving out a role with 350 ABs as a sometime catcher, sometime COF? I love my Dodgers, and I’m thrilled that their roster is borderline over-stuffed. But Rushing’s OBP+POWER profile feels essential on a team with two power bats age 33 or older. And even if he isn’t essential this year I think it might be important for the Dodgers to groom Rushing and Pages and others to take on key roles as Muncy, Freeman start to age out. Thoughts?

2:22

Jon Becker: Definitely possible, though I think they view him as more of an outfielder than a catcher at this point. It would take an injury to get him playing time but I’d think he‛d be one of the first call-ups in the event of one, maybe only behind whichever of Outman/Pages doesn‛t get the last roster spot (assuming Chris Taylor sticks around). I haven‛t seen how the Dodgers will handle Ohtani‛s workload when he‛s back to pitching, but (and I‛m just speculating) they could go back to his early-Angels schedule of not hitting before and after (or maybe just one or the other, now) his start days.

2:22

twins: why is royce lewis the projected 6th hitter, were they doing that in 2024?

2:24

Jason Martinez: Only one time in 2024 but they rarely had the big 3 (Lewis/Correa/Buxton) in the lineup together and Lewis was also really bad in the 2nd half (74 wRC+). And Larnach/Wallner give them a pair of lefty bats that were both very good last season. A lot can change, of course, but that‛s&nbspjust where I landed after looking over everything at the beginning of the offseason.

2:24

Peter: Hi Folks! There‛s been some debate in MN Twins world over the state of the budget. It was reported in the Star Tribune yesterday that after finalizing all the arbitration eligible players, the Twins payroll sits at $122.1, which with minimum salary players would bring it to $130. However, Roster Resource has it at $140. Bref says $130. This is pretty critical, because the FO has said the salary must be $130, so being $140 would mean needing to trade just to reach the desired budget. Can you all explain where the discrepancy is coming from and what might explain the differing projections?

2:26

Jon Becker: I‛ll take a closer look after we‛re done chatting here, but it looks like B-Ref only includes enough pre-arbitration players to fill a 26-man roster, rather than baking in time for injuries, which we do (seven additional pre-arb players per year as placeholders, essentially). That‛s not the entirety of the $10M difference but that‛s a big chunk of it right there. Re: the Twins themselves, I‛ll be curious to see based on the rest of their offseason if that $130M is a hard number or if there‛s some wiggle room.

2:26

Yuniesky Betancourt: Brewers 3B. Best (reasonable) options? Moncada, DeJong, internal?

2:30

Jason Martinez: Moncada would be interesting, but not sure he‛ll even be cheap enough for the Brewers. I‛m guessing he can still get around 1-yr, $8MM on a prove-it deal. They seemed to really like Oliver Dunn last season so not sure if he‛s fallen off their radar or if they still believe in him. I think there’s at least a decent chance that Caleb Durbin plays 2B, Ortiz stays at 3B, and Turang moves to SS.

Not sure how close their two 3B prospects are to the majors. Brock Wilken struggled in AA last season. Mike Boeve tore it up in AA in a smaller sample. Luke Adams was very good in Hi-A

2:30

Dan H: Thanks so much for having these chats! With Burnes off the board and a Sasaki signing extremely unlikely, what realistic moves do you see the Giants doing that could make them more than a fringe contender for the last wildcard spot? I’d love to see them trade for someone like Luis Roberts for upside or Brandon Lowe/Yandy Diaz for some stability, but it’s hard to know what they can do when what they really need are stars.

2:32

Jon Becker: They‛re in a really tough spot because their farm system isn‛t great (Eldridge is the one guy with big trade value, and I think they‛re correct to rebuff any attempts to pry him away), but the FA market is really running dry on anything even approaching star-level talent. I think Flaherty makes a lot of sense even with Verlander; not sure you can trust Ray and Hicks to give you more than 45 starts combined, and even that number might be pushing it.

2:32

Guest: Hi Jason, how confident are you on the 5th starters (SP). Like how do you arrive at that conclusion between the 5th and 6th pitcher battles.

2:34

Jason Martinez: Each situation is unique (feel free to ask about a particular team) but most teams aren‛t taking chances with their rotation by leaving 1-2 spots up for grabs. Those competitions will happen because of injuries. Another important question these days will be how often a team uses a spot-starter or bullpen game. I will list some teams with 6 starters and a lot of teams will have 5 starters with an obvious spot-starter candidate in the bullpen.

2:35

drplantwrench: looking at the available FA‛s and their ZiPS i am 100% convinced that the Angels should be tripping over themselves to target HSK. am i crazy?

2:36

Jon Becker: They‛d have to rearrange some things once Kim‛s shoulder is healthy (and Neto‛s, for that matter), but I don‛t think this is crazy! If Kim‛s willing to play second (I could totally understand if he‛s not, since he‛s a great shortstop) they could slide Rengifo to third and Rendon to the bench. Their defense is weak at a lot of different spots,

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Jason Martinez

Those projections can change depending on how things are going in the spring or if the team gives any indication of where things are headed. Campbell might just win the job early in the season (or by Opening Day) and never relinquish it. Hamilton showed enough last season that he could go into spring training as the favorite (assuming they don’t add another player to be their starting 2B) and then how long he holds the job will be based on his performance. But seems like it’s only a matter of time before Campbell is in Boston.

2:09

$105M: Are the A’s the only team needing a payroll of $105M this year?  There are other teams below $105M, do they have to reach it too?  Why just the A‛s?  Thanks.

2:12

Jon Becker: There’s been a little bit of a misconception here, and this question is a good chance for me to explain this! The A’s don’t have to have a payroll of $105M, but if they don’t, the burden of proof in a grievance shifts from the MLBPA to them — meaning the A’s have to defend themselves rather than the MLBPA having to operate as if they’ll be presumed innocent. But grievances take years, so there’s no immediate punishment that happens if they aren’t at $105M. I know the Marlins also will be receiving the same revenue sharing money that the A’s will, unclear which other teams are also set to.

2:12

Or Elvis: When we say a prospect had a cup of coffee in the majors, I think Orelvis‛s stat line applies. He was raking for awhile there in the minors before his suspension. What are you hearing on him, and any reason to think he could break camp with the team?

2:14

Jason Martinez: If the Jays go into spring training with Ernie Clement as the projected starter at 3B and don’t bring in any competition, that would tell me that they really believe in Orelvis making an impact at some point in 2025. Clement is a perfectly fine stop-gap. I don’t think they’ll stand pat, though, so Orelvis’ 2025 will be all about bouncing back and getting ready to take over at 2B or 3B in 2026. Or maybe by the trade deadline.

2:15

David Stearns: What do you see the Mets doing the rest of the offseason other than resigning Pete?

2:17

Jon Becker: If we presuppose they bring Alonso back (not a given but that’s certainly what I think is likeliest), I think they could use another starting-caliber hitter as Marte/McNeil insurance, preferably someone who can play both INF and OF. Not any great options fitting the bill on the FA market but Willi Castro comes to mind as a plausible trade option with the Twins wanting to cut payroll.

2:17

BC26: Do you really buy NYY going with Cabrera/LeMahieu at 3B on Opening Day?

2:20

Jason Martinez: I do not. Not many 3B options if they don’t trade for Arenado — thus, the Paul DeJong rumor from yesterday — but they could just leave Jazz at 3B and add one of the 2B options (Brendan Rodgers, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco, Ha-Seong Kim, Luis Arraez trade?)

2:20

Mr. Burrito: Could you see D. Rushing carving out a role with 350 ABs as a sometime catcher, sometime COF? I love my Dodgers, and I’m thrilled that their roster is borderline over-stuffed. But Rushing’s OBP+POWER profile feels essential on a team with two power bats age 33 or older. And even if he isn’t essential this year I think it might be important for the Dodgers to groom Rushing and Pages and others to take on key roles as Muncy, Freeman start to age out. Thoughts?

2:22

Jon Becker: Definitely possible, though I think they view him as more of an outfielder than a catcher at this point. It would take an injury to get him playing time but I’d think he‛d be one of the first call-ups in the event of one, maybe only behind whichever of Outman/Pages doesn‛t get the last roster spot (assuming Chris Taylor sticks around). I haven‛t seen how the Dodgers will handle Ohtani‛s workload when he‛s back to pitching, but (and I‛m just speculating) they could go back to his early-Angels schedule of not hitting before and after (or maybe just one or the other, now) his start days.

2:22

twins: why is royce lewis the projected 6th hitter, were they doing that in 2024?

2:24

Jason Martinez: Only one time in 2024 but they rarely had the big 3 (Lewis/Correa/Buxton) in the lineup together and Lewis was also really bad in the 2nd half (74 wRC+). And Larnach/Wallner give them a pair of lefty bats that were both very good last season. A lot can change, of course, but that‛s&nbspjust where I landed after looking over everything at the beginning of the offseason.

2:24

Peter: Hi Folks! There‛s been some debate in MN Twins world over the state of the budget. It was reported in the Star Tribune yesterday that after finalizing all the arbitration eligible players, the Twins payroll sits at $122.1, which with minimum salary players would bring it to $130. However, Roster Resource has it at $140. Bref says $130. This is pretty critical, because the FO has said the salary must be $130, so being $140 would mean needing to trade just to reach the desired budget. Can you all explain where the discrepancy is coming from and what might explain the differing projections?

2:26

Jon Becker: I‛ll take a closer look after we‛re done chatting here, but it looks like B-Ref only includes enough pre-arbitration players to fill a 26-man roster, rather than baking in time for injuries, which we do (seven additional pre-arb players per year as placeholders, essentially). That‛s not the entirety of the $10M difference but that‛s a big chunk of it right there. Re: the Twins themselves, I‛ll be curious to see based on the rest of their offseason if that $130M is a hard number or if there‛s some wiggle room.

2:26

Yuniesky Betancourt: Brewers 3B. Best (reasonable) options? Moncada, DeJong, internal?

2:30

Jason Martinez: Moncada would be interesting, but not sure he‛ll even be cheap enough for the Brewers. I‛m guessing he can still get around 1-yr, $8MM on a prove-it deal. They seemed to really like Oliver Dunn last season so not sure if he‛s fallen off their radar or if they still believe in him. I think there’s at least a decent chance that Caleb Durbin plays 2B, Ortiz stays at 3B, and Turang moves to SS.

Not sure how close their two 3B prospects are to the majors. Brock Wilken struggled in AA last season. Mike Boeve tore it up in AA in a smaller sample. Luke Adams was very good in Hi-A

2:30

Dan H: Thanks so much for having these chats! With Burnes off the board and a Sasaki signing extremely unlikely, what realistic moves do you see the Giants doing that could make them more than a fringe contender for the last wildcard spot? I’d love to see them trade for someone like Luis Roberts for upside or Brandon Lowe/Yandy Diaz for some stability, but it’s hard to know what they can do when what they really need are stars.

2:32

Jon Becker: They‛re in a really tough spot because their farm system isn‛t great (Eldridge is the one guy with big trade value, and I think they‛re correct to rebuff any attempts to pry him away), but the FA market is really running dry on anything even approaching star-level talent. I think Flaherty makes a lot of sense even with Verlander; not sure you can trust Ray and Hicks to give you more than 45 starts combined, and even that number might be pushing it.

2:32

Guest: Hi Jason, how confident are you on the 5th starters (SP). Like how do you arrive at that conclusion between the 5th and 6th pitcher battles.

2:34

Jason Martinez: Each situation is unique (feel free to ask about a particular team) but most teams aren‛t taking chances with their rotation by leaving 1-2 spots up for grabs. Those competitions will happen because of injuries. Another important question these days will be how often a team uses a spot-starter or bullpen game. I will list some teams with 6 starters and a lot of teams will have 5 starters with an obvious spot-starter candidate in the bullpen.

2:35

drplantwrench: looking at the available FA‛s and their ZiPS i am 100% convinced that the Angels should be tripping over themselves to target HSK. am i crazy?

2:36

Jon Becker: They‛d have to rearrange some things once Kim‛s shoulder is healthy (and Neto‛s, for that matter), but I don‛t think this is crazy! If Kim‛s willing to play second (I could totally understand if he‛s not, since he‛s a great shortstop) they could slide Rengifo to third and Rendon to the bench. Their defense is weak at a lot of different spots,

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