We’re one week out from the Seattle Seahawks’ first training camp under Mike Macdonald. There are a lot of questions about the roster which we hope will be answered through camp and the preseason, and starting today we will preview the season with three questions concerning every part of the roster. The preview for special teams is the only one that will not focus on specific positions, but instead concentrate on the entirety of the unit.
Special teams roster: K Jason Myers, P Michael Dickson, LS Chris Stoll
How will the Seahawks handle the new kickoff rules?
This is a blanket question for everyone, I suppose. The modified NFL kickoff was designed to, well, make the kickoff relevant again. Reduce the touchbacks, put the ball in play, and find ways for the kick return to be safer for the players without eliminating kickoffs completely.
There’s a phenomenal article by Sumer Sports’ Shawn Syed, who broke down every kickoff from the XFL (from which the NFL’s kickoff rules are generally modeled off of) to spot patterns in the date and to see what can translate to the NFL. It’s not as simple as aligning differently and swapping returners. There is so much to learn about different coverage schemes, potential option plays with a second returner, kickers changing their ball placement for where the kick lands, etc. that it is going to take some time to adjust.
Here’s what Syed concluded after his research:
Aside from strategic nuance and rule manipulation, the change in the NFL kickoff is going to have a tangible impact on the field; there will likely be an astounding increase in the percentage of kickoffs returned this season.
More players will find their name on the stat sheet and great players will emerge in different ways, on both the kicking and returning side. The best special teams coordinators will be able to get the most out of their players executing the fundamental techniques of football but will also find creative ways to open and close space for returners. The best kickers will also give their team an advantage by how they kick the ball into the landing zone.
Instead of checking the box and starting a drive at the 25 yard-line, teams will have to earn their starting field position. Each yard added onto the start of a drive increases a team’s chance to score points, but kickoff units may find that the differences in the XFL rules and NFL rules fall in their favor.
The new kickoff is one of the most compelling reasons to watch the preseason. We might see an established star as a second returner/speed option threat, Jason Myers involved more as a tackler, Michael Dickson used as a kickoff man, different strategies to limit field position, and I consider all of it as exciting as it is confusing.
Who is going to return punts?
Piggybacking off the previous topic, there are no shortage of viable candidates for kick returner for the Seahawks. Dee Eskridge, Laviska Shenault Jr, Dee Williams, Kenny McIntosh, Tre Brown, and Nehemiah Pritchett are among the potential options for kickoffs. We may even see, say, Kenneth Walker III on special teams but that’s just speculation. Players with deep punt return experience, however, are in short supply.
Williams is the most experienced but unless he dramatically improves he won’t make a dent on the wide receiver depth chart. Everyone else I’ve listed did not return punts in college or the pros. Easop Winston Jr returned 10 punts with the New Orleans Saints in 2021 and had those duties for the Seahawks last preseason, but he similarly has an uphill battle to make the roster as a receiver.
Tyler Lockett is the veteran, safe pair of hands as a punt returner but his days of being an All-Pro at the position are long gone. He might be the option for fair catches inside the 20.
It’s arguably more important Seattle figures out punt returner than kick returner, and hopefully that means no repeat of the time they let Earl Thomas return punts and force-quit that experiment after one game.
Are we going to get “even year” Jason Myers brilliance again?
Jason Myers has seldom been a consistent placekicker on a year-to-year basis. His statistics in even-numbered years versus odd-numbered years are something of a running joke. Myers’ two Pro Bowl seasons (one with the Seahawks and the other with the New York Jets) were in 2022 and 2018, respectively. He didn’t miss any field goals in 2020 and even banged through a 61-yarder. Meanwhile, he was a very underwhelming 17/23 on field goals in 2021 and got cut by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2017 after going 0-3 on 50+ yard kicks and missing a couple of PATs.
Last season was an odd year for Myers even by odd-numbered year standards. He missed seven field goals, tying a career-high set in 2016 (even-numbered year!), but was perfect on PATs for the first time. Worryingly, Myers was only 6/10 on field goals in indoor stadiums, including two misses against the Detroit Lions, a missed game-winner versus the Los Angeles Rams, and a miss inside of 40 yards versus the Dallas Cowboys.
A loose defense of Myers is that he was asked to do way more field goal kicking than is reasonable. He led the league with 42 attempts, five more than his previous career-high of 37 back in 2022. When you look at the percentages of all kickers since 2000 with at least 40 attempts in a season, Myers has a middling ranking. His middling ranking also applies to DVOA, so the volume of misses does not indicate his overall season was a bad one.
Perhaps Myers is emblematic of kicker volatility. If your name isn’t Justin Tucker there’s just not going to be grand expectation of high accuracy every season.
From the FTN Football Almanac 2024:
Field goal percentage is almost entirely random from season to season, while kickoff distance is one of the most consistent statistics in football.
This theory, which originally appeared in the New York Times in October 2006, is one of our most controversial, but it is hard to argue against the evidence. Measuring every kicker from 2018 to 2022 who had at least 20 field goal attempts in each of two consecutive years, the year-to-year correlation coefficient for field goal percentage was an insignificant (and negative) -.05. Jason Myers of Seattle is a great example. In 2018, he had a Pro Bowl season for the Jets and connected on 92% of field goals, which got him a big contract in Seattle. In 2019, he declined to just 82%. In 2020, he rebounded and hit all 24 of his field goal attempts with no misses. The next year, he was back down to 74% including two misses from inside 40 yards. And then in 2022, Myers connected on 92% of his field goals.
What you hope to see is Myers maintain his excellent PAT record but not have his name called for more field goals than necessary. This is nevertheless an important year for Myers considering this is his final season with any guaranteed salary.
There are no questions about Michael Dickson, for we know he is not to be questioned.
Our next preview will look at the quarterbacks.
