Aaron Schatz, the godfather of the popular DVOA metric, just released the 2024 edition of the FTN Football Almanac. This is the second year in a row that this treasure trove of advanced analytics has been published through the FTN Fantasy platform, following the sad collapse of Football Outsiders.
Having read through the Seattle Seahawks chapter (plus supplemental material), I’ve jotted down some notable statistics and key points on either side of the ball that may confirm your priors or leave you asking more questions. For what it’s worth, I’ve also taken a glance at the Baltimore Ravens chapter because of the arrival of head coach Mike Macdonald, but I’ll leave that for another time.
Let’s get going!
Offense
The Seahawks had a wide disparity in play-action vs. straight dropback passing
When the Seahawks used play-action passing they were a force, averaging an impressive 9.1 yards per play. When it was time for straight dropback? Just 5.8 yards per play. Seattle and the Baltimore Ravens had the biggest DVOA differential (by a big margin, too) when it came to PA vs. non-PA.
What’s interesting is that the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, and Miami Dolphins are all in the top-10. Common theme among those teams, as well as the Seahawks? The offensive coordinators/playcallers are either Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay, or a disciple of Shanahan or McVay. This isn’t uniform, as Matt LaFleur’s Green Bay Packers were actually worse when using PA.
I think we can infer that Seattle’s 3rd down struggles involved a lot of obvious passing situations, and the results were often ugly.
Kenneth Walker is special
Only Breece Hall (77) and Christian McCaffrey (77) broke more tackles than Kenneth Walker (72). His broken tackle rate of 29 percent was also third-best among all offensive players. He may get dinged for improvising/going off-script a bit too much, but who can blame him when…
The Seahawks rushing attack was the worst it’s been since 2017
Last season was Seattle’s worst rush DVOA since the historically bad 2017 group. The offensive line allowed a high stuff rate (26th) at the line of scrimmage. Seattle ranked in the top-half for second-level and open field yards, but if you don’t ever get there in the first place then you’re screwing over Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Both tackle spots were a mess in terms of Adjusted Line Yards (ALY), understandable given the injuries at both positions.
DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba carried the YAC
Tyler Lockett’s yards after catch per reception was just 2.7, his worst over the past three seasons. Meanwhile, DK Metcalf rose to 5.6, more than double what he managed in 2022 when he was (at least to me) used almost like a possession receiver. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was 5.8, but that keeps in mind how many of his routes were at or behind the line of scrimmage and designed for yards after catch. The problem for JSN was he was not effective on out routes, something you hope can improve with more time on the practice field with Geno Smith. Metcalf, meanwhile, was among the top-20 receivers in DVOA (value per target) and DYAR (total value).
The best pass protector is no longer on the team
Last year I wrote about how Damien Lewis had the lowest pressure rate allowed on the entire Seahawks offensive line. His 1.5% pressure rate was an improvement from 2023 and 3rd best among all guards (2nd among left guards). It is not a coincidence that he was sought after by the Carolina Panthers, and he is technically the only offensive lineman John Schneider has ever drafted whose first post-Seahawks contract averaged at least $10 million/year.
Charles Cross’ pressure rate increased from his rookie season, which is concerning, while Phil Haynes, Jake Curhan, and Stone Forsythe were pressure machines relative to their positions. You can understand why George Fant was brought back as a more stabilizing force.
Was Geno Smith actually better in 2023?
Geno’s raw statistics were down from 2022, and the major lulls the offense experienced make it seem implausible that Geno Smith didn’t regress from his first season as Seahawks starter. And yet… his DVOA was higher than 2022 (10% vs. 7.9%) and he was still in the top-third among all qualified starting quarterbacks.
Here’s what the almanac had to say:
By our numbers, Smith was even better last year than he was in 2022, showing that his surprise return to prominence two years ago was no fluke. Yes, Geno’s raw numbers went down—completion rate, touchdown rate, yards per attempt, et cetera. But Smith faced a much more difficult slate of defenses in 2023 than he did in 2022 and we give him credit for not turning back into a pumpkin.
The offensive line was injured/regressed heavily and the defensive schedule included the elite San Francisco 49ers defense (on a short week after suffering an injury), the top-rated Cleveland Browns, Mike Macdonald’s Baltimore Ravens, and the turnover-feasting Dallas Cowboys.
I fully understand if you lean the other way and believe the absolute elite QBs can overcome these obstacles, but it does put into perspective some of his statistical performances. I’m not totally persuaded but also believe Geno wasn’t as mediocre as the stats indicated.
Defense
Pete Carroll’s obsession with not getting beaten deep (once again) came at the expense of getting killed on short passes
One of the few positives about the 2023 Seahawks defense was how they defended deep passes. Seattle was 10th against throws that traveled 16 or more air yards. That’s fine and dandy and one of the regular strengths of this defense. The problem is they repeatedly get drilled on underneath stuff; they were 28th by DVOA against short passes after ranking 32nd in 2022.
For perspective, the Baltimore Ravens were 31st vs. deep passes in 2022 under Mike Macdonald. By 2023 they improved to second and were also seventh against short passes.
It barely mattered whether the Seahawks generated pressure or not
When we did this metric review last season, the Seahawks were 10th by DVOA when pressuring the quarterback and 24th without pressure. So at least there was something positive when Seattle was able to collapse the pocket.
The 2023 Seahawks were a low point. They weren’t any good whether they got home or didn’t.
DVOA with pressure: -48.9% (29th)DVOA without pressure: 41.1% (25th)
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens were 1st by DVOA with pressure and drop all the way down to 2nd without pressure.
Seahawks tackling was a horror show
No team was worse at getting the ball-carrier to the ground than the Seahawks. Seattle led the league with 154 broken tackles, which is a major change from their above-average performance in 2022. Riq Woolen was 4th among all cornerbacks in broken tackles with 12, and I suppose that’s a kind statistic since a whiff is technically not a broken tackle.
Quandre Diggs and Woolen both had missed tackle rates north of 20 percent.
Riq Woolen’s struggles were mostly tackling and penalties, not giving up completions
While Riq’s second season was disappointing compared to his outstanding rookie campaign, it wasn’t because he suddenly was giving up huge catches on a weekly basis. His success rate* when targeted was 51%, identical to his number last season. Devon Witherspoon was best on the team at 56%. Where Woolen fell apart was the aforementioned missed tackles, but also penalties. Whether the penalties were justified or not, Woolen was dinged for 9 accepted flags and 122 penalty yards. Only the Atlanta Falcons’ A.J. Terrell gave up more defensive pass interference yards than Woolen’s 102.
Between the missed tackles, the penalties, and the blown coverages that won’t always show up on stat sheets, Woolen’s miscues were spread elsewhere and have to be cleaned up if he’s to recapture his rookie form.
(“Success Rate” Definition: The percentage plays of targeting this player on which the offense did not have a successful play. This means not only incomplete passes and interceptions, but also short completions which do not meet our baselines for success – 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third or fourth down.)
Devon Witherspoon is amazing
Only two rookies finished in the top-20 in passes defensed: Devon Witherspoon and the Detroit Lions safety Brian Branch. Witherspoon was tied for fifth with 16 PDs, made all the more impressive by the fact that he missed three games yet was still the most targeted corner on the team. His average yards per pass allowed was just 6.1 yards, and his average depth of target was only 9.1 yards. Opposing QBs were not keen on challenging Witherspoon down the field all that much.
Boye Mafe’s second year leap was real
The only Seahawks player in the top-20 in pressures was Mafe, whose 54 combined sacks + hits + knockdowns was only one behind Myles Garrett and tied for 10th with Haason Reddick, Montez Sweat, and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Bobby Wagner still had significant value as a run stopper
The Seahawks run defense was a mess, but one of the few bright spots was current Washington Commanders linebacker and Seattle legend Bobby Wagner. While he may not be in prime athletic shape anymore, he still provided Seattle with 13 run tackles for loss (third in the NFL) and an average gain of just 2.9 yards on run stops. The problem? Everyone else on that list had no more than 90 tackles. Wagner had 116, indicative of the lopsided snap counts in favor of Seahawks opponents.
There’s a whole lot more but we don’t have all day and this is already a long post.
If you have any more questions you can ask me in the comments section! I’ll probably have more articles based on the almanac date. And if you’d rather just read it yourself, you can buy the FTN Football Almanac here.
