Semi-Finals – Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury » Winsidr

After an entertaining opening round of the postseason, four teams are left standing as they fight for a spot in the WNBA Finals. 

One half of the bracket is a matchup between the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx and the fourth-seeded Phoenix Mercury in a best-of-five series, with Minnesota owning homecourt advantage. 

During the regular season, Minnesota owned a 3-1 series advantage over Phoenix, with all four games taking place in the first half of the regular season:

May 30: Lynx win 74-71 at PHX Arena in Phoenix, AZJune 3: Lynx win 88-65 at Target Center in Minneapolis, MNJuly 9: Mercury win 79-71 at PHX Arena in Phoenix, AZJuly 16: Lynx win 79-66 at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

Before the two teams face off, we turn to our Winsidr reporters Mitchell Hansen and Candace Pedraza to look into the series. Hansen looks at matchups and x-factors through the lens of the Lynx, while Pedraza views things from the Mercury’s side.

Series Schedule:

Game One: Target Center — 5:00 p.m. ET on September 21 (ESPN)Game Two: Target Center — 7:30 p.m. ET on September 23 (ESPN)Game Three: PHX Arena — 9:30 p.m. ET on September 26 (ESPN2)Game Four: PHX Arena — TBD on September 28*Game Five: Target Center — TBD on September 30*

*If necessary

Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch

Mitchell: This isn’t a specific matchup, but I’m really looking forward to seeing these two face off at full strength for the first time. Minnesota carried a 3-1 series advantage over Phoenix in the regular season, but the Lynx never saw the Mercury fully healthy, with Kahleah Copper out for all four matchups following a left knee arthroscopy. At full strength, this Mercury team is talented, spearheaded by the Big Three of Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, which will be tough for Minnesota to try and contain over the course of a series. But the Lynx are also a team that has talent spread across the board and has a way of wearing opponents down with the level of depth on the roster. I don’t want to say you can throw out the four regular-season matchups between these two teams, but this will be the first real test against each other to see who is superior. 

Candace: The matchup between the Mercury’s bench and the Lynx’s should be a small, but mighty, piece of the series between these two powerhouses. Phoenix has had some extremely meaningful contributions from players like Sami Whitcomb and DeWanna Bonner throughout the season, and that should make things interesting against Minnesota’s bench featuring Natisha Hiedeman and Jessica Shepard. Bonner was also a huge piece in the Mercury’s win over the New York Liberty to close out the series, and if she can get it going, that’s even more chaos for Shepard to have to control in the paint. It’ll be sixth players who will be key to this one, especially with so much firepower in both teams’ startling lineups. 

X-Factors:

Mitchell: Turnovers, three-point shooting and how each team starts the game are a few things I’m keying in on as x-factors for both teams in this series. When it comes specifically to Minnesota, turnovers are something that has haunted them this year and has been tough to overcome, so I’m focusing on how the Lynx—and, in fact, both teams—take care of the ball in this series. 

Secondly, I’m interested to see how three-point shooting plays a role.Minnesota is a team that has found success from deep and can spread the floor while getting up shots at a high clip, while Phoenix has struggled a bit in that area while working its offense more inside-out. Three-point shooting could play a big factor in the semifinals. 

Finally, how teams start off each game will be arguably the most important thing. In both wins in the first round, the Mercury have started the game off strong and have had solid first half performances to take a lead into halftime. On the other hand, the Lynx have been almost the exact opposite. Against Golden State, Minnesota fell behind by double digits in both games, only to have to claw back into games in the second half. Phoenix has been more of a first-half team, while Minnesota has been more of a second-half team. Especially early on in the series, look for how each team is coming out of the gates and what kind of lead they are able to obtain. 

Candace: Phoenix is going to have to get off to a quick and physical start against Minnesota. They’ll be on the road to kick off the best-of-5 series, and it’ll be imperative they maintain play on their terms very early on in the series. The Mercury had one of the faster paces against the Liberty in the first round at 94.85, fourth best in that round. They also held their opponents to just 27.3 points in the paint, second-best in the postseason and just behind the Lynx. That’ll be another X-factor in this round, with Minnesota shooting 64.5 percent from the restricted area so far these playoffs, and 50 percent from the paint. If Phoenix can get off to a fast start and prevent players like Napheesa Collier, Alanna Smith, or Bridget Carleton from getting going easily, that tilts things in their favor. 

Bold Predictions:

Mitchell: Lynx will win in four games. I think this series will be a relatively tight one, with every game being decided by single digits, but I ultimately think Minnesota takes care of business at home in the first two games and is able to take Game 4 on the road in Phoenix to advance to the WNBA Finals. The Lynx are just too deep, too talented and driven to let this series slip out of their hands. And homecourt advantage will be a big aspect to this series, which plays in Minnesota’s favor.

Regardless, get your popcorn ready. This is going to be a fun, physical battle. 

Candace: This is going to 5. The Mercury and Lynx have too much talent and far too good of respective defenses to have this be a lopsided affair, one way or another. These will be close ones for the most part, but there will be at least one contest where Phoenix catches Minnesota on their back heels and blows them out at least once. Eventually, this series will go to the Lynx, who feel destined to get back to the Finals this season.

Stats through the first round of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs.