In early April, an article titled “Astros Pitching Prospect Spencer Arrighetti Is All in With Analytics” ran here at FanGraphs, and given what the 24-year-old right-hander had to say, the headline was wholly accurate. In a conversation that took place during spring training, Arrighetti displayed nuanced knowledge of his pitch metrics while comfortably addressing topics like seam-shifted wake and vertical approach angle. He presented as a bona fide pitching nerd.
Four months into his rookie season — he made his major league debut with Houston on April 10 — Arrighetti is a nerd with an altered approach. The evolution of his M.O. has taken place over the course of an up-and-down campaign that currently has him on a high. Over his last two starts, the 2021 sixth-round pick out of the University of Louisiana at Lafayette has allowed just three runs while fanning 25 batters in 13 innings. On the year, he has a 5.14 ERA, a 4.18 FIP, and a 27.9% strikeout rate in 105 innings.
Arrighetti explained how and why his approach has changed when we sat down to chat at Fenway Park this past weekend. My first question elicited an expansive, five-minute response, after which we shared a handful of additional exchanges.
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David Laurila: What’s changed since we talked in spring training?
Spencer Arrighetti: “I have a much better perspective now. When we talked in Lakeland, I was speaking with three big league spring training games under my belt. This is a very different game than I thought at that time. The conversation we had, as great as it was, left out a really big piece of what successful pitching is in the modern era. Obviously, shapes and velocity are really important. Arsenal design is really important. There are people who believe those are primary, but after my time up here, I’m not convinced that chasing shapes is the way to go.
“I’m speaking about pitching in the big leagues. Below that, I would agree that shapes pretty much rule. If you can throw something really nasty, and pretty hard, you’re going to be successful. But everybody throws something really hard and really nasty at this level. So my perspective has shifted to not just relying on the Stuff+ numbers, but rather taking into account the fact that, at the end of the day, it’s about pitching. You can be both deceptive and nasty, and that’s a lot better than just being nasty. I think the art of deception is kind of what you lose when chasing optimized shape, optimized velo, or whatever it is that you’re training for.
“I think that approach helped me see that I’m capable of pitching well in the big leagues, but from conversations I’ve had with other starting pitchers on our team, and with some of the legends of the game, I firmly believe that there is a lot more to it. Being deceptive and… tunneling, I guess, is the word I’m avoiding while trying to describe it. I think tunneling is a bad word. But I think the more often you can convince a hitter that you’re throwing a fastball, and it’s not a fastball, that’s really how success happens. That brings into the conversation a whole different set of data. It’s more based around your release window. Like, are all your pitches coming out of the same window? Are all of them presenting similarly in spin orientation?
“Are [your pitches] giving you up because the spin orientations are different? Are you manipulating your slot to try to get something to move more, even if it doesn’t need to? I think I was doing a lot of that without really realizing it. The more that I’ve tried to gear my game towards consistency in the delivery for the sake of executing locations, instead of trying to execute eye-popping shapes, is where I’ve found a lot more success. Instead of diving into what my stuff is doing, I’m seeing what the hitters are doing in terms of coverage pitch to pitch, and damage on a certain pitch.
“I still love the numbers. I really do. I’m really a nerd about it, but I’ve shifted my focus away from some of the actual pitch shape numbers and moved on towards more of a taking-my-odds approach. I’m looking at a specific hitters’ tendencies in this location, in the zone, with this pitch, and then committing to the shape being secondary and the execution being primary. I feel like doing that separates good pitchers from great pitchers at this stage.
“So, I loved the conversation we had in Lakeland. I just think that my approach to getting outs has changed. I did firmly believe in the Matt Brash and Griffin Jax approach, that you can kind of throw it down the middle a little bit because it’s that gross and that hard. It works for those guys really, really well, as we’ve seen. But I’m not necessarily that person at this level. I’ve found a lot more success when I don’t worry about the shapes as much as I worry about where I’m throwing my pitches, and what I’m doing with them in terms of usage, and in terms of who I’m throwing them to.”
Laurila: Basically, throwing more to hitters’ weaknesses and not just trying to overpower them with your strengths?
Arrighetti: “Yes. The data tells the whole story, and that includes how to get outs if you look at the right things. For example, if a hitter’s OPS — or maybe his slugging — is X on this pitch, in this location of the zone, I’m going to take my chances there. I’m going to throw it there knowing that they know they’re bad at it. The worst thing that can happen is they take an uncharacteristically good swing. That’s a lot easier for me to rest my case on than going out there and deciding, ‘This is my nastiest pitch, so I’m going to spam it in the zone,’ and then giving up a homer or a double.
“I think I’ve done it three times now. I decided, ‘This is my best pitch to a right-handed hitter and I’m going to throw it here knowing maybe he hits it, but I think mine is better.’ But even if mine is better, that doesn’t necessarily mean I get the result that I’m looking for. The one that really comes to mind is my outing against the Chicago White Sox. I hung a slider to [Luis Robert Jr.] and he hit it for a run-scoring double down the line. I was thinking that because it’s a sweeper, and because it moves X amount and is this hard, I’m going to be fine. The reality is that it wasn’t the right pitch. That guy hits in-zone sliders really well. There were probably four other pitches in my arsenal that would have better served me at that moment, even though some of them maybe don’t have an outstanding Stuff+ grade, which a lot of times we believe is the key to being super successful as a pitcher.
“Again, there are cases where you can throw it down the middle because your stuff is that good. There are guys like Mason Miller and Paul Skenes who throw so hard, and throw such nasty stuff, that it really doesn’t matter. But even with the velo tick-up that I’ve seen in the big leagues, it really doesn’t fit my game that well. Albeit, I have nasty spin — they’re good Stuff+ pitches — and along with the way I use them, that’s the reason I’ve been able to have high strikeout numbers. But it’s also the reason I’m walking guys. Those pitches are generally harder to control, and the strike zone up here is a little bit smaller.
“So, those are the adjustments I’m trying to make right now. I’m committing more to the execution of these pitches, which I know are already good, rather than chasing shapes or chasing more velocity. That’s kind of where I’m at at this point in the year. I’ve got around 20 starts under my belt, so it’s not anything to rest my case on necessarily, but I do think that my concept of being an effective pitcher has changed a little bit.”
Laurila: It sounds like one of the things you’re doing is setting your ego aside.
Arrighetti: “Exactly. I’m kind of putting my ego in my back pocket. I don’t try to throw two-strike heaters upstairs to guys who hit fastballs up in the zone really well. If you have that knowledge and let your ego be the reason you get beat, there is only one person to point the finger at. It’s not the guys making the scouting reports, and it’s not the catcher calling pitches. It’s me. I don’t want that to be the story of my career, that I’m always looking back and saying that I threw the wrong pitch. That’s why I’ve started to put a lot more stock in pitch selection, as opposed to pitch design.
“I have to pitch more than I throw, and I think that I’ve done a pretty good job of that over the last month or so. I’ve picked my pitches better. I will live and die with the one that I think gives me the best odds. That’s been a positive development for me. In the past, throwing hard and being nasty was all I had to do, but again, at this level it isn’t a separator; it’s almost a prerequisite. In order to make something of those crazy numbers on TrackMan, you’ve got to be able to throw it in the zone where you want it, and throw it out of the zone where you want it.”
Laurila: You alluded to something that seems counterintuitive yet makes a lot of sense. It is possible to have a strong understanding of analytics — be a pitching nerd — and still be more of a thrower than a pitcher.
Arrighetti: “That’s kind of the ego aspect of it. I want to throw 100 mph on a stadium scoreboard and punch out 19 guys in the game. That’s everybody’s dream, just like hitters want to hit homers 480 feet at 120 mph. You want to be chasing those landmarks that have been put before us, but you have to understand that it takes really special individuals to be able to do that.
“It doesn’t take a really special individual to be able to understand yourself better as a player and not chase things that aren’t necessarily for you. Having a better concept of myself, I understand that I’m not supposed to throw 100. I’m supposed to throw what I want to throw — what I should throw — where I want to throw it. If you have a thrower who can learn to pitch, that’s when you’ve got something. It’s how you can be successful.”
