The CBA has expired: What’s next for the WNBA?

As expected, the WNBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement expired without a new extension in the early hours of Saturday. After two previous extensions of the original Oct. 31 deadline, the deal has officially expired, but there are no signs of an imminent work stoppage from either the WNBA or the WNBPA, the players’ association. Instead, we now enter a status quo period, where the sides can continue to negotiate under the same rules of the previous contract. Yet, they are also now (by definition of letting the agreement expire) more open to exploring a strike or lockout in the coming weeks.

There are a few different scenarios we could see play out in the next few weeks. Everything from striking, to a deal being signed to more of the same holdout from the sides. Regardless of what happens and when, we are now approaching a territory where, no matter what happens, the upcoming 2026 WNBA season will be impacted.

A work stoppage has already been authorized

In December, the WNBPA held a vote to authorize a potential strike. This vote was only to give the WNBPA’s executive committee permission to start the strike process if it gets to that point. They were very clear at the time that a strike was a last resort tool, and doing the vote at that point was just an administrative task to check off to make the process smoother in the future.

The players ended voting 98% in favor of authorizing a strike, with 93% participation from union members.

When it comes to the idea of a work stoppage, it feels like the players are more likely to take that step right now than the league. Remember, a work stoppage can be started from either side here — the WNBA can hold a lockout, and the players can begin to strike. The idea of a WNBA lockout doesn’t seem to have much power, since many of the WNBA’s players are currently playing in other leagues around the world. A lockout works to withhold players from the resources the WNBA gives them, but these players have those resources in many other places. It’s not like the NBA, where players sign a contract that says they are not allowed to play in other leagues during the NBA offseason.

On the other hand, the WNBPA’s strike would take away the WNBA’s most valuable resource — the players. It’s not like the flip side, where the players can find other places to train. The WNBA can’t just replace the players and continue on as usual. It’s another reason why the players have so much leverage in this current negotiation. Of course, the players want to play in the WNBA, but it’s not their only choice.

While it’s more likely for the players to strike than it is for the WNBA to hold a lockout, it’s still not imminent. That could change quickly now, with the contract expired and time of the essence, though.

The WNBA offseason is already being affected

If this were a normal offseason with no contract negotiations, the WNBA would be full on into transactions by now. They likely would have held an expansion draft for the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire in early December, much like they did for the Golden State Valkyries in 2024. Then, heading into January, the trade market would have opened up, and we would also now be heading into free agency.

Now, with a new contract not yet signed, the offseason is kind of at a standstill. You can’t sign new contracts, build rosters, and offer salaries to players when there is no contract determining salary cap, veteran minimums, and rules surrounding things like the core designation. It’s why nothing has happened so far this WNBA offseason.

Yet, with the obvious time crunch happening, there are questions about how to proceed with free agency. Per Alexa Philippou of ESPN, the league has offered a moratorium to the players. Currently, because everything is under the status quo after the contract expired, teams can technically send out qualifying offers and make core designations starting Sunday. Yet, those would have to be adjusted depending on what a new contract would say about the idea of restricted free agency and the core designation — two things the players have been vocal about wanting to eradicate in their next contract. Players would also likely not even entertain these contracts while negotiations are ongoing, especially if a strike is still on the table as a last resort option.

The risk of these ongoing negotiations affecting the 2026 season is real. The WNBA season is currently set to start at the beginning of May, and it will already be condensed to make sure players have time to report to their international federations for the FIBA Women’s World Cup this fall. If the new contracts dictate that there will be more games in the WNBA season, they will either need to fit them in somewhere or decide that the expanded season will start in 2027. The WNBA is somewhat halted from moving the season up as well, with the NCAA college season already ending in April and the draft happening only 9 days after the March Madness Final. With training camp needs, the draft, and holding a preseason, there isn’t time to make the season start earlier.

What happens when a contract IS signed?

The best-case scenario for everyone will be a new contract being signed. Earlier this week, we talked about the players having leverage and holding strong on what they want. The hope is that eventually they will come to terms on a contract that gives those things to them.

So, what happens after that? The first order of business will have to be an expansion draft. The Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire are already at such a disadvantage right now, given that their first official offseason will be condensed. They need to be given the chance to start building their roster, not to mention the expansion draft will affect how the rest of free agency plays out.

If things like restricted free agency and core designations still exist in the WNBA’s new contract, that would come next. Sending out qualifying offers and having those team-owned negotiation rights figured out first will then lead to unrestricted free agency. From there, we will move into the WNBA Draft, coinciding with the end of the college season. In between all of that, many players will also participate in FIBA World Cup Qualifying tournaments in Turkey and China in March, the end of the Unrivaled season, and the Athletes Unlimited season.

If a new CBA were signed today, we’d have just over two months to get all of this done. Yet, with the way it’s looking, it may be six weeks or even less. It’s a lot to think about, and potentially less time than ever to do it.