As John Oliver would say after pounding his desk on Last Week Tonight while the studio audience claps: “Welcome, welcome, welcome! It has been a busy week.” Or two weeks, if we’re being exact. Anyway, happy 2025 everyone! I hope you all had a lovely holiday season; I certainly did. The Offseason Matrices document has continued to whir as we enter the New Year. Let’s get started.
The Big Free Agent Signings
Diamondbacks Sign Corbin Burnes for Six Years, $210 Million
• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal• Updated Roster Projection• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Diamondbacks
The Snakes are now as loaded up on starting pitchers as any team in baseball, with Burnes fronting a rotation that’ll also include Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and some combination of Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson.
Effect on Other Teams
The count of ace-level starters on the free agent market has hit zero, with Jack Flaherty perhaps able to hit that ceiling, though his swing-and-miss stuff wasn’t nearly as prevalent after he was traded to the Dodgers as it was when he was with the Tigers. Dylan Cease is the best starting pitcher who could be traded, with Luis Castillo a rung below and more expensive. (Castillo, though, would come with three years of club control to Cease’s one). Teams could also look to get one last hurrah from old, former aces Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Charlie Morton, though unlike Burnes, they’re no longer 200-inning material.
Effect on Similar Players
Burnes’ strong deal, which also includes an opt-out, is a better template for Cease when he hits the open market next offseason than it is for any of the remaining free agents this year.
Mets Re-Sign Sean Manaea for Three Years, $75 Million
• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal• Updated Roster Projection• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Mets
Even if they end up going with a six-man rotation, the Mets are in really good shape with their starting pitching depth. If healthy, Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes will make for a formidable 1-5 in the rotation, with a potential sixth spot going to Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn, or Griffin Canning. This depth should also have a cascading effect on the bullpen. Of those three on the outside looking in, only Megill can be optioned, meaning the hurlers who don’t make the rotation will reinforce the relief corps if they are not traded before the start of the season. Prospects Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong could also factor in at some point this year.
Effect on Other Teams
Manaea was one of the better free agent starters left, and he fell into a nice Goldilocks sweet spot between the better, more expensive guys — such as Burnes and Flaherty — and the more capricious pitchers, like Nick Pivetta and Andrew Heaney. With Manaea off the market, that leaves teams still looking for a strong frontline to mid-rotation starter with three options: Spend a little bit more for Flaherty, spend a little bit less for someone like Pivetta, or bite the bullet and trade away controllable young players or prospects for someone like Cease.
Effect on Similar Players
In the Median Years column, which you can find in the Total Spending Projection tab of the Matrix, Manaea was predicted to get a four-year deal. However, it isn’t surprising that a pitcher entering his age-33 season would sign for only three years. We also don’t know exactly what else Manaea had on the table for him to accept, and it’s entirely possible he took less money or fewer years to stay with the Mets. Manaea’s $25 million AAV (about $22 million in NPV after deferrals are factored in) is a good target for Flaherty to try for on a longer deal.
Dodgers Re-Sign Teoscar Hernández for Three Years, $66 Million
• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal• Updated Roster Projection• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Dodgers
Unless there’s a trade in the offing (Gavin Lux would strike me as the likeliest there, which isn’t to say he will be moved), the Dodgers’ starting lineup is all set, and it’s mostly the same group as the one that won the World Series last year. Against righties, Hernández joins Tommy Edman and newcomer Michael Conforto in the outfield, with Max Muncy at third base, Mookie Betts at shortstop, Lux at second, Freddie Freeman at first, Will Smith behind the plate, and that Shohei Ohtani guy DHing. The bench is in good shape too, with Austin Barnes backing up Smith, and Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor bouncing around. RosterResource currently projects Andy Pages to start against lefties over Lux, with Pages in center field, Edman moving to short, and Betts sliding over to second.
Shortly before this piece was published, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported that the Dodgers had agreed to a three-year, $12.5 million deal with Korean infielder Hye-seong Kim. Per Ardaya, the plan for now is still to have Betts and Lux to be the team’s everyday middle infielders, with Kim filling a super utility role. We’ll cover the Kim signing in more detail next week.
Effect on Other Teams
The Blue Jays are the team most affected by the Hernández signing, since they were reportedly interested in a reunion with the slugger, whom they traded to the Mariners ahead of the 2023 season. The Jays are rapidly running out of impact-bat options to sign in order to bolster their lineup for what could be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s last season with the club. That would explain Toronto’s ongoing interest in Alex Bregman and Anthony Santander, two of the best hitters still available.
Effect on Similar Players
Hernández got roughly as expected (his median contract prediction was three years at $70.5 million), though the $23 million-plus in deferrals will widen the gap between his predicted contract and its actual value. That may not be great news for Santander, another bat-first corner outfielder with some swing-and-miss in his game. If Santander comes in well below his median prediction (five years, $100.5 million), I think it’ll be less about Hernández’s underwhelming deal and more about the calendar. There’s both less comparable hitters on the market and fewer teams that need a player of his skillset. The clubs still looking for a player like Santander could be more likely to wait until his demands come down a bit. After all, if any team were willing to give him $20 million a year for five years, he probably would’ve signed already.
Rangers Sign Joc Pederson for Two Years, $37 Million
• Esteban Rivera’s Write-Up of the Deal• Updated Roster Projection• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Rangers
The Rangers were in need of another hitter when they traded away Nathaniel Lowe (more on him below), and that came to fruition quickly with Pederson’s signing. Assuming health, all nine starting spots in the Texas lineup should be locked, with Josh Smith bouncing around the field as a super utilityman. Any further additions to the group of hitters looks unlikely.
The Rangers also added righty reliever Shawn Armstrong for one year at just $1.5 million. He’ll join a group of bullpen newcomers that also includes Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, and Robert Garcia (more on Garcia in the Lowe section).
Effect on Other Teams
While his skillset is extremely limited (he didn’t play the field at all in 2024 and can’t hit lefties), Pederson excels at the only thing he’s asked to do: Crush right-handed pitching. There are few remaining options for teams looking to add a free agent who excels against righties; only five players still available — Bregman, Santander, Jurickson Profar, Jesse Winker, and Pete Alonso — posted a wRC+ of at least 120 against righties last season, and Pederson’s was better than all five of theirs; however, Bregman, Santander, Profar, and Alonso provide more value as everyday players. Winker could be the Kirkland version of Pederson, shielded from lefties while hitting for some pop and getting on base, and he should come at a far cheaper price.
Effect on Similar Players
Pederson signed for more than his median prediction ($24 million for two years). That could be good news for Winker, who will cost less than Pederson, and Profar, who should cost more. The Pederson deal shouldn’t affect the markets for Santander, Bregman, and Alonso.
Red Sox Sign Walker Buehler for One Year, $21.05 Million
• Jake Mailhot’s Write-Up of the Deal• Updated Roster Projection• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Red Sox
The Red Sox should be all done adding starting pitching. Buehler will join a rotation that also includes Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Crochet. If Lucas Giolito is ready to begin the season, they may open with a six-man rotation just so there are enough starts to go around. Richard Fitts and Cooper Criswell represent depth options, and Garrett Whitlock and Patrick Sandoval ought to be off the IL at some point this year as well.
Effect on Other Teams
Buehler’s upside on a one-year deal for his age-30 season can’t be replicated by anyone else on the market, though the flip side of that coin is that other one-year bounceback contracts should come quite a bit cheaper. Pitchers in that camp include Scherzer, Verlander, and Morton.
Effect on Similar Players
For the reasons mentioned above, this isn’t much of a market-mover in either direction for anyone else still available.
The First Base Free Agency Carousel
Tigers Sign Gleyber Torres for One Year, $15 Million
• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal• Updated Roster Projection• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Tigers
No, Torres will not be taking his talents to first base. But he’s in the first base carousel because his signing will push second baseman Colt Keith over to first, giving the lefty-swinger his second defensive home in just his second year in the majors. That leaves Spencer Torkelson without a position and pushes him straight onto the trading block; teams with still-unsettled first base situations who are looking for a low-risk, high-reward option could be lighting up the phone lines (do teams still use those?) of Detroit’s front office.
Yankees Sign Paul Goldschmidt for One Year, $12.5 Million
• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal• Updated Roster Projection• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Yankees
Goldschmidt gives the Yankees another veteran first baseman to replace the sure-to-depart Anthony Rizzo, which pushes Ben Rice to the outside looking in. Rice had some bright spots in his first taste of big league action, most prominently a three-homer game, but overall the results weren’t there. He ran into some bad luck (his xwOBA was 67 points higher than his wOBA), so there are reasons to hold out hope that he’ll turn into a quality big leaguer. That said, the Yankees suddenly have a surplus of guys who can play first base — Goldschmidt, DJ LeMahieu, Cody Bellinger, and even Oswaldo Cabrera — so except in the case of injury, or unless New York wants to keep him around to have a third catcher, it seems unlikely that he’ll open the season in the majors. Down the line, though, maybe it isn’t too much of a stretch to see the lefty-swinging Rice get some starts against tough righty pitchers. As Michael Baumann noted in his piece on Goldschmidt from November, the former MVP still rakes against lefties — he slashed .295/.366/.473 (134 wRC+) in 167 plate appearances against southpaws last season — but he’s lost a few steps when he doesn’t have the platoon advantage (88 wRC+ vs. righties in 2024). Either way, Goldschmidt is locked in as the Yankees’ everyday first baseman heading into 2025.
Guardians Sign Carlos Santana for One Year, $12 Million
• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal• Updated Roster Projection• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Guardians
The Santana signing essentially works out as a one-for-one swap for the Guardians at first base. He’ll replace Josh Naylor (more on him below), whose trade to the Diamondbacks was reported just 21 minutes before the Santana news broke. That means there aren’t any further cascading effects here on Cleveland’s roster. Kyle Manzardo remains in the driver’s seat to get the majority of the plate appearances at DH, and he’ll fill in for Santana on occasion as well.
Nationals Sign Josh Bell for One Year, $6 Million
• Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal• Updated Roster Projection• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Nationals
Bell will primarily serve as DH with Lowe (more on him below) in the fold. His signing leaves third base as the one position where the Nationals could add a starting-caliber player from outside the organization. Bregman seems to be out of their price range, but Yoán Moncada and Paul DeJong will be cheap and are still available.
Effect of the First Base Carousel on Other Teams
While the worst first base projections belong to the Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, and White Sox, I wouldn’t expect any of them to address that position. Colorado’s Michael Toglia is an intriguing-but-flawed player, the Marlins are content with being bad this season, the Brewers are stuck with Rhys Hoskins, and the White Sox will probably give another 500-plus plate appearances to Andrew Vaughn.
Further up the list is where things get interesting. The Reds are projected to use an amalgam of average-ish batters at a position with a higher offensive bar than that, and while Luke Raley can mash righties, the Mariners might want someone who can play every day at first while using Raley as a platoon DH. Alonso is the only high-upside everyday first baseman left on the free agent market, but the trade pool isn’t without options, even after Naylor and Lowe were moved. Yandy Díaz could be pried away from the Rays, the Orioles could ease their playing time logjam by dealing either Ryan O’Hearn or Ryan Mountcastle, and it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see the Padres trade Luis Arraez, who is in his final year before free agency, to ease their payroll strain. (An Arraez trade would be interesting in that it would be the third one in three years.)
Effect of the First Base Carousel on Remaining First Basemen
All eyes now turn to Alonso, whose market is shrinking but isn’t completely without suitors. Interested teams (light blue cells on the FA Matrix) who still have a first base opening include the Mets, Giants (who would trade LaMonte Wade Jr. or use him more at DH if they were to sign Alonso), and perhaps the Mariners (who would probably have to trade Castillo first to make room on the payroll) and Blue Jays (who could use Alonso at DH or even slide Guerrero Jr. over to third base). More complementary or platoon first basemen still looking for homes include Rizzo, Justin Turner, Mark Canha, Joey Gallo, Rowdy Tellez, and Matt Carpenter.
More Free Agent Signings
Nationals Re-Sign Trevor Williams for Two Years, $14 Million
• Updated Roster Projection• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Nationals
With Williams back on the squad,
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