‘Thursday Night Football’ picks, odds, best bets

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The Patriots’ meteoric overnight rebuild draws its share of respect, but laying 12.5 points on short rest is a tall order — even if you’re at home against the Jets. 

New England is atop the NFL at 8-2 while riding the wave of a seven-game win streak. Its most recent installment included topping an efficient Buccaneers team 28-23 and juicing 7.4 yards per play to Tampa’s 5.6.

Drake Maye recorded his lowest completion rate of the season, yet still managed to polish off his eighth multi-score game and fired for 270 yards.

Gang Green, 2-7, has rebounded from losing its first seven games to a miniature streak of their own after edging Cincinnati and Cleveland, an anemic defense and offense, respectively. 

Regardless of those scrappy wins, the Jets’ passing offense is non-existent (170 ypg), and they average 4.8 yards per play overall. I’m hard-pressed to see those numbers progressing with Garrett Wilson now out for three to four weeks due to a right knee sprain. 

Defensively, the Jets are still seeking their first interception of 2025. This is the first time a defense hasn’t picked off a quarterback through nine games since the 1943 Chicago Bears.  

All things considered, the line for this week’s edition of “Thursday Night Football” is inflated. The Jets are inept, but they have covered five of seven games as underdogs this season. 

While the spread invites caution, there’s value in targeting Maye’s passing yardage prop specifically in this spot. 

Betting on the NFL?

Mike Vrabel’s philosophical and tactical impact is undeniable in his first season as New England’s head coach, but the Pats’ success underscores just how essential a franchise quarterback is in the NFL over any other team component. 

Maye’s arrival has demonstrated the efficiency, consistency, and pure arm strength that some franchises spend years hunting for. 

Through 10 games, Maye has spun an average of 255.5 aerial yards, contrasting his 241.5 line against the Jets on Thursday.   

The game script here favors plenty of opportunity for Maye to keep the pigskin in flight: the Pats boast the No. 1 rushing defense, which should neutralize the Jets’ best weapon in Breece Hall. With the Jets forced into long passing downs behind an offensive line that’s sold out Fields to 25 sacks, the Pats should control possession, which leaves Maye plenty of dropbacks. 

Facing a defense that has forced one lonely turnover all season and no longer has Sauce Gardner, Maye will be licking his chops as he leads all quarterbacks with passing attempts that exceed 50 yards. 

Maye’s 72 percent completion percentage ranks second as he surged from +425 to the +275 favorite to win NFL MVP at DraftKings Sportsbook after Week 10.  

He posted his two worst games against the Jets last season, totaling 43 passing yards combined. Maye is the second-most sacked quarterback behind an offensive line that hasn’t progressed much since, though the Jets present a measly 16.3 percent pressure rate that’s made for under two sacks per game. 

The Pats receiving corps doesn’t feature a bona fide star, as Maye has spread the ball around enough to make it a sum greater than its parts, with Stefon Diggs leading a platoon with 55 ypg.

Maye has cleared this line in seven of his last nine starts. With my doubts on leaning to a side here, Maye’s passing prop at -114 is a sharp way to back New England’s momentum without tying yourself to a big number on a short week.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.