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Israel Adesanya could be the first domino to fall in a middleweight shakeup.
The two-time UFC champion puts his spot in the contender line up for grabs Saturday at UFC Saudi Arabia when he takes on Nassourdine Imavov in the main event. Adesanya and Imavov are trending in opposite directions, with “The Last Stylebender” having lost three of his past four fights and Imavov entering Riyadh on a three-fight win streak.
Should Imavov win, it could signal a sea change at 185 pounds, with division champion Dricus du Plessis defending his title next weekend against Sean Strickland, and top-ranked middleweights Anthony Hernandez, Brendan Allen, and Jared Cannonier also in action this February.
Add in the stakes of the co-main event between undefeated Shara Magomedov and Michael Page, and no one should be surprised if the middleweight rankings are unrecognizable six months from now.
What: UFC Saudi Arabia
Where: anb Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
When: Saturday, Feb. 1. The six-fight early preliminary card begins at 9 a.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 12 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Israel Adesanya (4) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (7)
I’m probably just being late to the party as usual, but I feel like the reports of Israel Adesanya’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.
Don’t get me wrong, there are real questions to be asked about his current slump. Adesanya is in his 15th year of fighting and turns 36 in July, so a physical decline is inevitable. His losses to Dricus du Plessis, Sean Strickland, and Alex Pereira were not flukes as all three exposed potential weaknesses in Adesanya’s once impenetrable aura. And it’s possible that after all he’s accomplished, his drive isn’t what it used to be.
But dig into the game tape and you’ll recall Izzy was ahead on the cards in his first fight against Pereira before succumbing to a late flurry and up on one judge’s card against du Plessis before being submitted. We’re also not far removed from Adesanya straight-up smoking Pereira, the boogeyman of the UFC. There’s still a great fighter in there.
He has to show he can still deliver in a 25-minute fight, because Nassourdine Imavov has all the motivation in the world heading into the biggest fight of his career. Imavov’s striking has been on point during his win streak and youth is on his side. It would be a true statement victory if Imavov outlasted Adesanya over five rounds.
I still see Adesanya being too quick and unpredictable for Imavov. Unless Adesanya has truly lost his ability to pull the trigger, he’ll control the action early before finding a finish in the third or fourth round.
Pick: Adesanya
Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page
I’ve been skeptical of “Shara Bullet” being a real contender, but just like everyone else who saw his double spinning backfist knockout of Armen Petrosyan, I’m starting to turn around (heh heh heh heh).
Props to My Best Friend Mike Heck for having a hand in this matchup after Magomedov responded to Michael Page calling for a fight. A real life On to the Next One moment if there ever was one. But seriously, this is a smart matchup for both guys, with Magomedov looking to add a notable name to his hit list and Page making a stress-free jump up to 185 pounds. It’s likely a one-shot deal, but taking Magomedov’s 0 would give Page plenty of options back at welterweight, too.
This pairing has chess match written all over it, as both fighters are known for their slick footwork, timing, and countering. Don’t expect either to bum-rush the other in the opening five minutes, rather we should be treated to an entertaining tactical battle that will open up if it gets to the second and third rounds.
This feels like a trap game for Magomedov, doesn’t it? He’ll be the heavier fighter, but not the longer one as he’s giving up six inches of reach to “Venom.” And since this is likely to take place primarily on the feet, that difference gives Page the usual advantage he has in these kinds of matchups. In the same vein as Stephen Thompson, Page is a puzzle in the standup, and Magomedov and his team better have the right game plan to solve it or this could be a humbling defeat.
Magomedov is still growing as a fighter and I like what I’ve seen of his development during his UFC run, even if the results haven’t always been compelling. I’m picking him to continue on his upward trajectory with a decision win over Page.
Pick: Magomedov
Sergei Pavlovich (7) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12)
Sergei Pavlovich didn’t look right in his most recent fight against Alexander Volkov. Maybe the muddled feud between the former training partners threw him off, or maybe it was Volkov’s long and lanky frame, or maybe Pavlovich just got caught up in the Volkov renaissance. Regardless of the reason, Pavlovich needs a win here to remind us why he was once tapped to fight Tom Aspinall for an interim title.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik has the technical skills to frustrate the hulking Pavlovich, but we’ll see how long he can wait to start letting his hands go with Pavlovich pressuring him. When Rozenstruik outpointed Tai Tuivasa at UFC 305 (a clear decision win in everyone’s eyes except for mystified judge Howie Booth), his footwork and technical mastery were on full display. Let’s not forget he has serious punching power, too, having ended several of his UFC wins in seconds.
I’m just getting a weird vibe here and I feel like Rozenstruik is overdue for a definitive knockout. He catches Pavlovich coming in early and scores the first-round finish.
Pick: Rozenstruik
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira
You hate to reduce any modern UFC matchup to wrestler vs. striker, but this is a wrestler vs. striker matchup if there ever was one. Sure, Said Nurmagomedov has solid striking fundamentals and can compete with Vinicius Oliveira in that department, but when it comes to sheer dynamism, it’s “Lok Dog” who has that in spades.
Nurmagomedov will search for openings to take Oliveira down from the second the bell rings, but he’ll find the athletic Brazilian difficult to catch. Every time Nurmagomedov closes the distance to grapple or ducks in for a shot, he’ll potentially be exposing himself to a spectacular counter strike from Oliveira. Eventually, he’ll dip his head into the wrong angle at the wrong time, and that’s when Oliveira will make magic happen.
Give me Oliveira by knockout in Round 2 after a competitive opening frame.
Pick: Oliveira
Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis
We open the main card with a dip into the lightweight shark tank. Fares Ziam and Mike Davis are both absolute killers who are still at least two or three wins away from a ranking in the loaded 155-pound division. Whoever wins Saturday could set themselves up for a massive 2025 campaign.
For Davis, that prediction comes with an asterisk, as the main thing hindering him from having a number next to his name is inactivity. Various maladies have kept Davis out of the octagon as UFC Saudi Arabia marks just his third fight since 2019. Everyone knows Davis has the goods, but can he stay healthy? And can he keep pace with a division constantly churning out elite fighters?
Ziam will be slightly more inclined to strike, while Davis will aim to mix the martial arts to break the Frenchman’s rhythm. If Davis continues to strategically score takedowns, it will prevent Ziam from getting his thrilling striking game going. In close, Davis can pepper Ziam with short shots and wear him down. At range, Ziam is extraordinarily dangerous, and one good read away from taking Davis’ head off.
This is a lovely matchup and it’s a shame one guy has to see a four-fight win streak snapped, but I like Davis by decision here.
Pick: Davis
Preliminaries
Muhammad Naimov def. Kaan Ofli
Shamil Gaziev def. Thomas Petersen
Terrance McKinney def. Damir Hadzovic
Mayra Bueno Silva (7, WBW) def. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Bogdan Grad def. Lucas Alexander
Hamdy Abdelwahab def. Jamal Pogues
