Unrivaled: Are favored Lunar Owls a lock for the first championship?

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The inaugural Unrivaled playoffs have arrived, with two single-game semifinal contests on Sunday, Mar. 16 followed by a do-or-die championship game, when $50,000 a piece for every member of the winning team will be on the line, on Monday, Mar. 17.

No. 1-seed Lunar Owls, No. 2-seed Rose, No. 3-seed Laces and No. 4-seed Vinyl will contend for the glory and the green. On Sunday, Rose and Laces will meet in the first semifinal game at 7:30 p.m. ET before Vinyl challenges Lunar Owls at 8:30 p.m. ET in the second semifinal. Both games will be broadcast on TNT, truTV and Max.

Are we destined for another Lunar Owls-Rose battle in the final? Could Laces rediscover their top form and claim the championship? Does Vinyl have a chance of crashing the party? Here’s what to expect in the semis:

Laces lurk as dangerous darkhorse

Can a team that began the season 4-0, topping the first edition of Swish Appeal’s Unrivaled power rankings, be considered a darkhorse contender?

In Unrivaled’s early days, a Laces vs. Lunar Owls final would have been the expectation. But, Laces have lived many lives since then, with injuries depleting the squad to such a severe degree that they even had to forfeit a game. Only Kayla McBride, who was voted to the All-Unrivaled First Team, and Stef Dolson appeared in all 13 regular-season games that Laces played. Jackie Young missed seven games. Alyssa Thomas was absent for five and Tiffany Hayes was out for two, while Kate Martin, who has been sidelined for seven games, is not expected to return.

Young also is questionable to play on Sunday due to illness, an absence that could prove critical considering her recent, ascendant play. After easing into the Unrivaled experience in her first four appearances, Young exploded in the final week of the regular season, highlighted by her 27-point performance in Laces’ playoff-clinching win over Mist. An aggressive, confident (and healthy) Young can take Laces to another level.

That would be a scary proposition for Rose. Over the season, Rose’s trajectory was the opposite of Laces; after starting 1-4, they reeled off a five-game win streak that included a win over Lunar Owls. The improvement was captained by All-Unrivaled First Teamer Chelsea Gray, who has been in peak Point Gawd form. Playing in every game for Rose, Gray scored the second-most points and dished the most assists in the regular season, all while shooting over 45 percent from 3, the best mark among high-volume shooters.

Her accelerating chemistry with Angel Reese, Unrivaled’s Defensive Player of the Year and an All-Unrivaled Second Team honoree who led the league in rebounding, formed the foundation of Rose’s success. That foundation, however, will be shaky on Sunday, as Reese is expected to miss the game with a hand injury she suffered in the final game of the regular season.

Angel Reese is OUT of tomorrow’s semifinals game due to a hand injury she sustained in the final game of the regular season, per Unrivaled. She could be seen grabbing at her left wrist in the third quarter before exiting the game — the same wrist she had surgery on in September.

— Kendra Andrews (@kendra__andrews) March 15, 2025

Reese’s absence prevents Rose and head coach Nola Henry from unleashing a double-big lineup with Reese and Azurá Stevens, which could have been an interesting weapon against a Laces team lacking in elite size. Instead, with Stevens, who has played limited minutes in the two games since returning from her own four-game absence, will have to step up as Rose’s lone big. Still without Kahleah Copper, Rose will have to rely on Lexie Hull and Brittney Sykes to find success in small-ball lineups. Expect them to be up for it, as a growing trust in Hull and Sykes’ improved, active play after her return from injury were crucial in helping Rose become the league’s second-best team.

And in the end, it may simply come to down to which club makes shots, especially in the untimed fourth quarter after the winning score has been set. In such situations, it is hard to bet against Gray, who has displayed her clutch bona fides in multiple contests.

Don’t doubt Lunar Owls

It would be a massive upset if Lunar Owls do not defeat Vinyl and advance to the final, especially since Vinyl has offered many reasons to NOT have confidence in their contender quality. The club backed in the playoffs, losing their last three games, including scoring just 46 points in their final regular-season loss to Rose. For the season, Vinyl had a point differential of -54 points, a worse differential than eliminated Mist.

And yet, it is impossible to totally write off an epic Vinyl upset. The club does employ Rhyne Howard and Arike Ogunbowale, two players who can get white-hot from deep. Both Howard and Ogunbowale have had more than a few games in their careers where everything they toss up finds the bottom of the net. Howard finished the regular season as Unrivaled’s leader in made 3s with 46 on a league-leading 122 attempts. That’s shooting nearly 38 percent on a high-volume of triples, an excellent mark. She also set the single-game Unrivaled record with nine 3s in Vinyl’s loss to Phantom in the final week of the regular season. Those efforts earned her a spot on the All-Unrivaled Second Team.

Hampered by leg injury that had her miss five of Vinyl’s final six games, Ogunbowale, who is questionable to play on Sunday, never found her range during the Unrivaled regular season, as she shot just 25 percent from downtown. But, no one doubts Ogunbowale’s potential to go from ice cold to on fire.

To upset Lunar Owls, whose execution, chemistry and effort exceeds Vinyl’s by a vast margin, Vinyl has to hope for a Howard-Ogunbowale double heater. If the pair starts pouring in the triples, it is possible that Owls will begin to press, knowing it would be a disaster-level disappointment if the regular season’s most dominant club did not make the final.

But throughout the regular season, any time Owls were on the ropes, the club lead by Unrivaled Coach of the Year DJ Sackmann rose to the occasion and responded. The triumvirate of Napheesa Collier, Skylar Diggins-Smith and Allisha Gray have flashed the ability to lock down opponents and generate scores when the intensity increases, exemplified by their second win over Mist, when they overcame a 12-point deficit before reaching the winning score.

All-Unrivaled First Teamer Collier’s all-round expertise, All-Unrivaled Second Teamer Diggins-Smith’s pulsing passion and All-Unrivaled snub Gray’s unflappable effort have proven the perfect 3×3 combination. That core is complemented by two know-their-role reserves, with Courtney Williams always eager to drain key buckets and Shakira Austin ready to outwork opposing bigs. Expect Owls to soar through the semis and into the championship game.