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Season 2 of Unrivaled has been the same song and dance for Vinyl.
Once again, the only thing consistent about the club has been inconsistency, and that inconsistency has resulted in mostly underwhelming results. At 2-5, both their wins were earned rather convincingly, while their losses have ranged from competitive to trending toward uncompetitive.
Vinyl enters Week 4 on a three-game losing streak, putting them in jeopardy of missing the playoffs if they don’t begin to put together complete performances. Of course, last season Vinyl barely snuck into the playoffs only to upset Lunar Owls and advance to the championship game, suggesting the club could be credibly believe that playing below their should-be standard is not a problem.
And it would be very Vinyl if the club snapped their three-game skid and started to look like a playoff-caliber team against league-leading Laces, their opponent on Saturday (5:45 p.m. ET, truTV).
Yes, a club that turned in a laggard effort against Lunar Owls, allowing that club to get their first win, can also be the club that sends Laces to their second loss.
In addition to avoiding a four-game slide, Vinyl should be highly motivated against Laces due to how the opening day matchup between the two clubs unfolded. Vinyl had a six-point lead at halftime and four-point lead after three quarters, but lost by 16 points after they failed to score a single point in the fourth quarter. They thus ended the game with 42 points, the fewest points scored in a game in Unrivaled history.
Unfortunately for Vinyl, Laces has only gotten better since then, riding their league-best defense to the best record in the league. Vinyl, nevertheless, might have what it takes to earn the upset and inspire increased optimism.
Although stout defensively, Laces have benefitted from 3-point shooting luck, with opponents making 29 percent of their 3-pointers. Laces also are allowing the most 3-pointers per game, as opponents are firing off almost 21 3s per game. As most basketball analysts agree that teams can control if their opponent takes a 3-point shot, but not if their opponents makes a 3-point shot, Laces might be overdue to be smited by the 3-point gods, as it is highly unlikely that opponents will continue to shoot so poorly on a relatively high volume of 3s.
Vinyl has the perfect player to puncture Laces with 3-pointers: Rhyne Howard.
The second-most prolific 3-point shooter in Unrivaled, Howard can get white-hot from behind the arc. This season, she has three games with six made 3-pointers, contributing to her making almost four 3s per game at 44.2 percent across Vinyl’s seven games. Last season, she had a nine 3-pointer game for Vinyl. She is a 3-point artist.
Erica Wheeler can also up her 3-point volume for Vinyl. She’s taking over three per contest and hitting them at a respectable 36.4 percent.
Some hot 3-point shooting from Howard and Wheeler can space out Laces’ defense, creating opportunities for Dearica Hamby or Brittney Griner to score around the basket in one-on-one matchups. That said, Laces’ defense is so good because of the ground their perimeter defenders can cover, with Jackie Young, Brittney Sykes and Jordin Canada all adept at fighting through screens and closing out to shooters, combined with the ability of Alyssa Thomas and Naz Hillmon to stonewall opponents’ attempts to score in the paint.
Despite the loss, Vinyl was competitive with Mist throughout their last game, hanging with the high-powered offensive team despite not shooting well from 3 nor earning many free throws. Another tight wire-to-wire effort, even if it is another loss, would at least indicate that Vinyl is beginning to change their tune and find a consistent (and eventually winning) groove.
Is Hive actually alive in the playoff chase?
For a 2-5 club, Hive enters their rematch with Mist riding high (4:30 p.m. ET, truTV), still buzzing after completing a thrilling comeback win over Lunar Owls on Monday night.
Hive, however, like their fellow two-win twin in Vinyl, has mostly been beset by inconsistencies through the first half of their inaugural season. After upsetting Rose to earn their first win, Hive fell flat in losses to Phantom and Laces, quickly extinguishing any winning momentum due to poor 3-point shooting, lackluster rebounding and too many fouls.
And even though they beat Lunar Owls, Hive still own the league’s worst point differential, outscored by almost 11 points per game. The also rank last in other key statistical categories: 3-point percentage, free throw attempts, rebounds and assists. These marginal miscues have added up to two close wins and five not-close losses.
On opening day, Mist beat Hive by 16 points, with rough shooting debuts from Kelsey Mitchell and Sonia Citron dooming Hive to defeat.
Since then, Mitchell, in particular, has begun to look more like herself, an encouraging development that could help Hive escape the statistical cellar. In the win over Lunar Owls, Mitchell made three 3-pointers, her best behind-the-arc effort of the season and a needed injection of efficient shooting for the 3-point starved squad. Natisha Hiedeman also needs to keep fearlessly firing away, as her four triples were absolutely essential in outlasting Owls.
Mist, likewise, began the season off from behind the arc, and in a potentially ominous sign for Hive, the Misties have begun stroking it from deep. Allisha Gray continues to amp up her aggression from long range, while Breanna Stewart has rediscovered her 3-pointer. The 3-ball also is beginning to fall for Arike Ogunbowale.
Hive doesn’t want to get into a shoot out with Mist. At the same time, they’re not well equipped to win a defensive slugfest. If Hive can’t conjure some more magic, expect this to become an easy Mist win.
