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The 2025 Formula 1 season is still two months away but we already know what some of the main points of interest for the upcoming year will be.
Will Red Bull’s new driver secure his place at the team for years to come? Will the FIA replace Mohammed Ben Sulayem? And are Formula One Management cooking up more changes for the future?
Judge which of these 10 predictions will come true before the end of the year and cast your votes below.
Lawson succeeds
Another one enters the lion’s den. Sergio Perez lasted four years alongside Max Verstappen, but he had the benefit of 10 years’ F1 experience when he arrived. Lawson has just 11 grands prix. Will he sink or swim?
Down to the wire
The drivers’ championship rarely goes down to the wire these days. It’s happened just twice in the last 10 years. But last season saw four teams vying for victory for most of the year, an unusually competitive situation for Formula 1, and if that continues we might just get a fight that goes the full 24 rounds.
Loading …Verstappen banned
The reigning world champion goes into the new season with eight penalty points on his licence. What’s more, none will be deducted until after the 11th round of the season. Last year Kevin Magnussen hit the dreaded 12 penalty points which triggers an automatic race ban. Now Verstappen is at risk of the same.
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Four more years for Ben Sulayem
FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem has not endeared himself to many in Formula 1 after winning election late in 2021. The drivers in particular have been unimpressed with his demands they watch their language. But what matters most for him is whether the FIA membership believes he is doing a good job, and they will give their verdict in this year’s election.
Loading …Even longer calendar
The 2025 F1 calendar features 24 races, the same number as last year. Formula One Management CEO Stefano Domenicali has repeatedly claimed he will not extend it further. But more rounds mean more money, and as its commercial agreements with the teams is up for renewal, now might be the time FOM tries to squeeze in one more event.
Loading …Colapinto displaces Doohan
Even before last season finished, rumours emerged that Alpine consultant Flavio Briatore wanted to reverse their decision to appoint Jack Doohan this year and hire Franco Colapinto instead. That hasn’t happened, but Alpine has appointed Colapinto as a reserve driver and Briatore was not exactly fulsome in his praise of Doohan’s debut in Abu Dhabi. The writing may be on the wall already for one of 2025’s rookies.
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Budget cap broken
The last time Formula 1 introduced sweeping changes to its regulations, one team exceeded the budget cap during the previous season. That was Red Bull, whose rivals felt their (unintentional) £1.8 million overspend was inadequately punished by a £6m fine (exempt from the cap) and reduction in their aerodynamic testing allocation, leading to their later domination. Is any team already thinking that might be a price worth paying to get ahead on their design for a car which will form the basis of their design for years to come? If so we won’t find out until some time in 2026.
Loading …Reverse sprint
FOM has long been deaf to critics of sprint races and Domenicali is eager to take the gimmick further by starting the races with a reversed or partially reversed grid. Past attempts to impose reverse grid races failed, but after five years of sprint events, they may intend to try again.
Loading …Alpine sold
Alpine owners Renault will abandon their F1 engine project at the end of this year. The surprising decision to surrender a significant potential advantage inevitably prompted many to question whether they’re preparing to leave F1 entirely. The team insists they are not – but teams rarely declare they are up for sale.
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Cadillac confirmed
FOM could not have been clearer about its opposition to expanding the F1 grid, and there was palpable reluctance in its confirmation that the Cadillac-branded entry founded by Andretti had gained an agreement in principle to join the grid next year. Will FOM really let them in, or will they find another obstacle to prevent the newcomers arriving?
Loading …I say
Lawson wasn’t Red Bull’s first choice to replace Perez – they wanted Daniel Ricciardo, but he didn’t produce the goods. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the beginning of a new cycle of young talent passing through their doors until they find a new Verstappen, and if Red Bull thought Lawson could be that, he’d have been in F1 long ago. I’d be surprised if he’s still in their car next year.
Similarly, Doohan was not Briatore’s first choice, and he appears to be calling the shots, so I expect Colapinto will be in before the end of the year. Alpine won’t sell up, though, as I suspect F1 team values will continue to rise.
Over the first half of the season Verstappen won’t need to perform the kind of risky moves which earned him so many penalty points last year, so he’ll avoid a ban. I also suspect he’ll eke out enough of a points lead to avoid another final-round title-decider.
The opportunity offered by the 2026 regulations is so great one team will over-spend, but whether it’s intentional or otherwise will be a matter of dispute. Although the FIA election is a long way off and a lot could change between now and then, at the moment I’d narrowly tip Ben Sulayem to win.
I don’t expect FOM will find a way to stop Cadillac coming in, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do try to introduce reverse-grid sprint races again, partly out of a concern that next year’s racing could be more processional if one team gains an advantage under the new rules. I also suspect they will succumb to temptation and add a 25th round for next year.
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