Week 24 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner 2024

The goal with the FSPP is simple: we rank all of the upcoming week’s projected two-start pitchers, accounting for the risk and reward for inserting them into your lineups. The pitchers will be broken down into the following five categories:

Giddy up: Set ‘em and forget ‘em.

12-teamers: These pitchers should almost always be in your lineup unless the fantasy baseball gods have blessed you with an utterly loaded staff.

15-teamers: You’re probably going to start these guys in a deeper league, but anything shallower would be a roll of the dice.

I Need the Wins: These pitchers should only be considered if you’re desperate for wins and other counting stats. Just understand the risk of blowing up your ratios.

Nope: Don’t even think about it.

Now that you’re primed and ready to go, let’s get to it.

Disclaimer: These rankings cover the week of September 16-22. The article is submitted Thursday afternoon and, thus, does not include results of Thursday’s games.

American League

Giddy Up:Seth Lugo (vs DET, vs SF)Pablo Lopez (at CLE, at BOS)Bryan Woo (vs NYY, at TEX)Nathan Eovaldi (vs TOR, vs SEA)

The people who were actually worried about Lopez seemed to be few and far between, but he was sitting on a 5.63 ERA through his first 15 starts this season. Since then, he’s compiled a 2.32 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 96:17 K:BB over 89.1 frames covering 14 starts. Lopez is coming off his third double-digit strikeout game of the season and has allowed zero earned runs in four of his last five trips to the mound. His velocity is also on the upswing, as the 96.3 mph he’s averaging with his four-seamer in September is the highest of any month this season.

12-teamers:Shane Baz (vs BOS, vs TOR)

The swing-and-miss (20.2% strikeout rate) is down and the free passes (9.7% walk rate) are up, and we might not see Baz truly regain his pre-Tommy John surgery form until next season. However, the velocity has pretty much been there and he does have a 2.32 ERA over his last five outings. The Rays have also loosened the reins on Baz’s workload lately, as he’s averaged six innings over those five starts and gone seven-plus a couple times.

15-teamers:Albert Suarez (vs SF, vs DET)Nick Pivetta (at TB, vs MIN)Spencer Arrighetti (at SD, vs LAA)Reid Detmers (vs CWS, at HOU)Chris Bassitt (at TEX, at TB)

Detmers was overdue for a return to the Angels’ rotation and he’s looked great in two starts since finally rejoining the big club, allowing a total of four runs with an 18:4 K:BB over 12 innings. Those starts were against the Dodgers and Twins, and while he does have to face the Astros at the end of next week, being able to start off with the White Sox in his first outing of the week might be enough to make him a virtual must-start anywhere. I’ll exercise a smidge of caution and put him in the 15-teamer section, though.

I Need the Wins:Ben Lively (vs MIN, at STL)Casey Mize (at KC, at BAL)Zebby Matthews (at CLE, at BOS)Joey Estes (at CHC, vs NYY)

Matthews boasts a 27:5 K:BB over 25 1/3 innings in his first six major-league starts. That’s great! He also holds a 7.11 ERA and 1.66 WHIP during that time. That’s not so great! The ERA and WHIP are heavily bloated by a two-inning, nine-run shellacking he took at the hands of the Blue Jays in his final start of August, but he hasn’t pitched well in his first two starts in September, either. Matthews did fare well in his first three big-league starts, and there’s reason to believe he’ll be a helpful fantasy arm for years to come, but the risk is very obvious.

Nope:Sean Burke (at LAA, at SD)

Burke looked good in a three-inning relief appearance in his major-league debut this week, permitting one unearned run with three strikeouts over three innings against the Guardians. That was enough for interim White Sox skipper Grady Sizemore (speaking of looking good) to say the rookie has earned a shot in the rotation the next time out. Burke is a big, athletic dude with strikeout potential, having fanned 86 over 64 1/3 innings this season during his time at Triple-A Charlotte. He also has big walk problems (career 12.5% walk rate in the minors) and big team context problems.

National League

Giddy Up:Max Fried (vs LAD, at MIA)Shota Imanaga (vs OAK, vs WAS)Sean Manaea (vs WAS, vs PHI)Zack Wheeler (at MIL, at NYM)Paul Skenes (at STL, at CIN)

Has anyone increased their standing as an impending free agent more than Manaea the last few months? Manaea was good for the first three months of the season in collecting a 3.89 ERA with a strikeout per inning, but he did have a 1.30 WHIP thanks to some control issues. However, since the start of July he’s been dominant, posting a 2.87 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 95:26 K:BB across 87 2/3 frames. Manaea has credited a lower arm slot with his improved control.

12-teamers:None

15-teamers:Colin Rea (vs PHI, vs ARI)David Peterson (vs WAS, vs PHI)Yu Darvish (vs HOU, vs CWS)Merrill Kelly (at COL, at MIL)Ryne Nelson (at COL, at MIL)Ranger Suarez (at MIL, at NYM)

I initially had Suarez in the tier above this, and I’m probably still starting him next week if I have him, but there’s no doubt he hasn’t been as sharp since returning from a back injury last month. The left-hander has posted a 4.19 ERA over his last four starts and allowed a whopping 12 hits to the Rays his last time out. Perhaps even more concerning is that Suarez’s velocity has tumbled in the wrong direction, as he’s averaged less than 90 mph with his sinker in his two September starts. Again, I’m probably starting him if I have him, but I wouldn’t feel great about it.

I Need the Wins:Jordan Wicks (vs OAK, vs WAS)Walker Buehler (at ATL, vs COL)Frankie Montas (vs PHI, vs ARI)Robbie Ray (at BAL, at KC)Andre Pallante (vs PIT, vs CLE)Jake Irvin (at NYM, at CHC)

Ray’s two-start week is written down in pencil, as the Giants haven’t committed to when the left-hander will return from a stint on the 15-day injured list with a strained hamstring. However, it’s looking like he’ll skip a rehab start and return next week if all goes according to plan. Ray has authored a couple clunkers since debuting with the Giants in late July, but the punchouts have been there with 43 of them in 30 2/3 innings. The matchups aren’t easy, though, particularly the one in Baltimore, and he’s not going to be fully stretched out.

Nope:Bradley Blalock (vs ARI, at LAD)Darren McCaughan (vs LAD, vs ATL)Ian Anderson (at CIN, at MIA)

It hasn’t been confirmed yet, but it would make sense for the Braves to look Anderson’s direction as a replacement for Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder). He’s on the same schedule and pitched well his last time out at Triple-A Gwinnett, tossing six innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts. In his last seven starts with Gwinnett, Anderson has a 3.52 ERA with 40 strikeouts across 38 1/3 frames, albeit with 20 walks. It’s been a long time since Anderson was healthy and looked like a quality major-league starter, but he’s still just 26 and appears to be ready for another shot.

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