Like in previous weeks, I am using a straightforward metric called speX–along with an equal helping of subjective analysis–to assess the pitching performances from the previous week and try to find some possible breakouts (or fades) for the following weeks.
speX (simple pitching estimation Index) is a composite index that mixes and matches the following stats: K-BB%, CSW%, pCRA, Zone%, and O-Swing%. You can check this article if you want to go deeper into it. We are already in the steady phase for the metric; I’m using the values for the performances through Monday, September 16, the innings minimumt is at 65.
I will be doing a review of some of the best and worst starting pitchers according to the value they provided this season … and how speX look at them for 2025.
IP
speX
K-BB%
CSW%
pCRA
O-Swing%
Zone%
ERA
FIP
172.2
86.92
26.7
32.5
2.90
37.00
43.70
2.35
2.02
Yoshinobu Yamamoto was a disappointment this year but not because of his performance, which was mostly good, but because of the injuries he had to deal with. Barring any setback during the playoffs, I think Yamamoto could be anyone’s…
Honorable mentions: Pablo Lopez, Shota Imanaga, Grayson Rodríguez
I don’t usually have a “Do Not Draft” list for as I believe that drafting is too valued-based and almost every one (even you, Patrick Corbin) can be drafted. However, this is my early list of “Don’t Draft Too High” guys that I’m a little concerned about:
Néstor Cortes
Tanner Houck
Corbin Burnes
Brandon Pfaadt
Hunter Brown
Gerrit Cole
Carlos Rodon
Luis Castillo
I’ll expand in the reasons on a future article.
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