What the WNBA CBA stalemate reveals about bargaining power

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The Jan. 9, 2026 deadline has passed, and no deal has been reached between the WNBA and the WNBPA. Negotiations will now enter a “status quo” period where the terms established under the expired CBA will hold until a new agreement is reached. During this period, both the league and the players are expected to bargain “in good faith” meaning with the intent to reach a deal in an honest and fair manner. Both parties still have the ability to initiate a work stoppage at any point— for the league, a lockout, and for players, a strike. Yet, after around three months of negotiations and two deadline extensions, neither side appears ready to pull the trigger. What gives?

Women’s professional basketball is the most popular it has ever been. Viewership has hit record highs, countless franchises sold out regular season games, the league’s latest media deal is valued at around $2 billion, and names like Caitlin Clark and Paige Bueckers have become synonymous with not just women’s basketball, but basketball at large.

Both the league and the players recognize the significance of the moment. For the league, the next CBA will have an outsized impact on league growth — its viability will be central to maximizing revenue and turning a profit. For the players, a new CBA presents an opportunity to codify their worth (in the form of salaries) and ensure equitable treatment (in the form of revenue sharing) compared to the NBA.

A labor stoppage could cripple the WNBA for years

They also recognize the risk. A labor stoppage has the potential to inflict major losses and erase years of momentum in just a handful of months. As referenced in a previous article, the 1994-95 MLB strike led to a 20 percent drop in attendance in the following season. Management lost $580 million dollars and players $230 million. Such losses would be detrimental to the WNBA. A 20 percent drop in attendance would drastically dampen league revenues, discourage long-term broadcast and sponsorship deals, and slow fan re-engagement during a critical period of sustained growth.

If both the WNBA and WNBPA recognize the outsized risk a work stoppage can have on the long term success of the league, they also recognize that a relatively longer offseason — around seven months compared to the men’s five — means negotiations can drag out without serious consequences, arguably until April/May when the draft and season start are scheduled.

This prolonged bargaining “season” has led to brinkmanship at the bargaining table. Players continue to up the ante as progress stalls — first strike authorization, now Player Hubs —- while the league has favored stretching negotiations, and some would argue legitimate concessions, for as long as possible without triggering a strike or encroaching on season start.

For now, bargaining continues in good faith. As negotiations continue, tactics may shift as there are wins (and losses) to be had at the bargaining table. The most important ones, however, reside in the stands.