Indiana resumes Big Ten play Thursday night against Rutgers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. The Scarlet Knights are 8-5 overall and 1-1 in conference games. Rutgers leads the all-time series 9-8.
Thursday’s game will tip at 8:30 p.m. ET on Peacock:
Two of the nation’s top freshmen will be in Bloomington this week as conference play gets into full swing. Rutgers, ranked No. 75 in KenPom as of Wednesday, is led by the star duo of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey.
The Scarlet Knights have been up and down this season with wins against Penn State and Seton Hall and five losses, including Kennesaw State on the road and Princeton on a neutral court.
Indiana, meanwhile, has been one of the biggest disappointments in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers have yet to beat a team projected to make the NCAA tournament and have three losses by 16 or more points. Indiana is 9-0 at home but has had closer-than-expected games recently against Chattanooga and Winthrop.
There are still plenty of opportunities for Indiana to build a tournament resume. Still, the margin for error is small after the Hoosiers failed to pick up any noteworthy wins in the non-conference.
MEET THE SCARLET KNIGHTS
Expect NBA scouts to be out in full force at Assembly Hall to see how Harper and Bailey fare in a challenging road environment.
Harper has been one of the best guards in the country through the first 13 games. The 6-foot-6 lefty guard leads Rutgers in scoring, assists, minutes, and is second in rebounding. Harper averages 22.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.2 steals in 34.3 minutes per game.
The New Jersey native logged a triple-double in his most recent game and is shooting 52.5 percent from the field, 37.3 percent on 3s, and 75 percent from the line.
Bailey is a tantalizing NBA prospect because of his size and versatility. The 6-foot-10 wing missed the season’s first two games but has been in the starting lineup ever since. He’s second on the team in scoring (18.2 ppg), first in rebounding (7.6 rpg), first in blocks (11), and second in minutes (33.6 mpg).
He takes and makes a lot of difficult shots but isn’t as efficient as Harper. Bailey is shooting 47.4 percent from the field, 32.6 percent on 3s, and 62.2 percent from the free-throw line. With his size, athleticism, and mobility, not many teams have an answer defensively for Bailey and Indiana will likely struggle to slow him down.
It’s beyond Harper and Bailey where the question marks start for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is significantly worse at center after Clifford Omoruyi transferred to Alabama. Steve Pikiell is filling those minutes with Emmanuel Ogbole and Lathan Summerville.
Ogbole is a 6-foot-10, 270-pound junior averaging 4.3 points and 3.9 rebounds in 13.9 minutes per game. He’s shooting 64.5 percent from the field. Sommerville, a 6-foot-10, 275-pound freshman, comes off the bench and averages a solid 7.8 points and four rebounds in 19.1 minutes per game. Neither player is anywhere near the caliber of shot blocker that Omoruyi was.
Senior Jeremiah Williams, a 6-foot-4 guard who played just 12 games last season for Rutgers, is the team’s third-leading scorer. Williams isn’t a perimeter shooter (25 percent) but is an efficient 53.6 percent on 2s and makes 76 percent of his free throws. He also has a team-high 17 steals.
Junior Jordan Derkack, a transfer from Merrimack, is shooting just 21.7 percent on 3s and 37.5 percent from the field. The 6-foot-6 wing has scored in double figures just twice this season. He’s started eight games but has come off the bench in the last four contests.
Another transfer, Zach Martini from Princeton, makes 40.7 percent of his 3s and is a career 35.5 percent 3-point shooter. Martini started the season 7-for-14 on 3s but is just 4-for-13 since.
Other rotation regulars include sophomore guard Jamichael Davis, PJ Hayes, a transfer from San Diego, and Tyson Acuff, a transfer from Eastern Michigan. Davis has started the last four games and had 11 points, seven assists, three rebounds, and three steals on Monday in a win against Columbia.
Hayes, a 6-foot-6 wing, is a capable 3-point shooter. He shot 39.5 percent last season from distance at San Diego and is 14-for-35 (40 percent) this season. Acuff was the go-to guy at Eastern Michigan but hasn’t played more than 15 minutes in a game since Nov. 27 against Alabama. The 6-foot-4 guard shoots 32.4 percent from the field and averages three points in 11.7 minutes per game.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
The Rutgers defense has gone from being the best in the Big Ten last season to being the worst this season.
According to KenPom, the Scarlet Knights finished last season with the fifth-best adjusted defensive efficiency. Through 13 games this season, Rutgers ranks 97th in adjusted defensive efficiency, below Iowa (95) and Minnesota (91).
Offensively, Rutgers takes care of the ball and does an excellent job getting to the line. The Scarlet Knights rank 43rd nationally in turnover percentage (14.9) and 63rd in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) at 38.7 percent.
Rutgers is also playing at its fastest pace under Pikiell, ranking 57th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. The Scarlet Knights have never had an adjusted tempo higher than 154th in nine seasons under Pikiell. After missing the NCAA tournament the last two seasons, expectations were high for Rutgers to get back to March Madness this season. Through 13 games, Rutgers, like IU, isn’t on track to be an NCAA tournament team.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is Indiana by five with a 69 percent chance of a Hoosier victory. Bart Torvik’s projection is IU by six with a 73 percent chance of a Hoosier win.
Indiana is unbeaten at home but has looked shaky in its last two outings against inferior competition. If Indiana is going to compete for a March Madness bid, this is a game the Hoosiers need to win.
Rutgers will have the two most talented players on the floor, Harper and Bailey, but IU will have an advantage in the frontcourt with Malik Reneau and Oumar Ballo, assuming he’s back and available to play. Rutgers isn’t a great rebounding team, so the Hoosiers need to win that battle to prevail. Neither team takes or makes a high volume of 3-pointers, so the free-throw line will also loom large.
Filed to: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
