What to Expect – The Lead

Last year’s WNBA draft was the most watched in the franchise’s almost thirty-year history.

More than 2 million people tuned in to watch Caitlin Clark begin her career as a pro. The Iowa point guard had developed an enormous fan base over the last two seasons, thanks in part to her high-profile rivalry with LSU’s Angel Reese.

Clark was the number one draft pick, joining the Indiana Fever’s roster. Reese was picked seventh, making her pro debut with the Chicago Sky.

The two rookies—with help from other notable league newcomers like Cameron Brink and Kamilla Cardosa (picked second and third in the draft, respectively) brought millions of new eyes to a league that had been criminally underappreciated in years past.

It’s getting to be that time of year again. Exactly a month from today, Cathy Engelbert will take the stage at The Shed in New York for the 2025 WNBA Draft. Who will be the WNBA’s number-one draft pick this season?

How does the WNBA Draft work?

The WNBA draft is decided by a lottery system.

At the end of the regular season, the four teams with the poorest records are entered into a randomized lottery system. On draft day, a representative from each team—this past year, Angel Reese represented the Sky—is given a four-digit number.

The lottery machine is turned and mixed. A ball is withdrawn. The team whose number matches the one drawn gets the first pick. This process repeats for three rounds until the top four picks are decided.

Teams have more entries based on their record. This year, Los Angeles, Dallas, Chicago, and Washington were entered. Because Los Angeles had the worst season, they had the highest chance of winning the number one draft pick.

However, because Chicago had traded Dallas their spot in the draft earlier in the season, the Wings actually went in with a 50% chance of winning. Which they did.

How influential is the number one pick?

It’s a pretty big deal.

If you look at the last ten number-one draft picks, you run into some pretty enormous names. Jewell Loyd. Breanna Stewart. Jackie Young. Sabrina Ionescu. A’jay Wilson. Kelsey Plum. Rhyne Howard. Aliyah Boston. Yes, Caitlin Clark.

Getting the top pick in the draft doesn’t change everything for a struggling franchise, though. The Fever landed the top pick two years in a row—claiming consecutive rookies of the year in Boston and Clark—thanks largely to their very poor regular season performance.

Incidentally, Indiana fans have finally had a reason for celebration. Following considerable growth and restructuring, the franchise made it to the playoffs for the first time in years this past season.

The Dallas Wings lost 31 of 40 games last season. During free agency this year, they lost their star player, Satou Sabally. They also replaced their head coach.

Having the top pick in the draft won’t be enough to realistically produce a winning season. It can help them get back on track over the next 2-3 years.

So, who will be the number one pick?

Paige Bueckers. That’s pretty much been the assumption from day one.

Bueckers is a proven guard who nearly entered the draft portal last season before deciding to stay at UConn for a final year. Some analysts went as far as to call the draft lottery the “Paige Bueckers sweepstakes.”

Notre Dame Guard Olivia Miles has also been playing her way into consideration, putting up steady numbers all season long. It would be a little surprising if Dallas chose Miles over Bueckers. The UConn star has been such a steady hand in the college game for several seasons now—but really, both players are exceptional.

What does this mean for the 2025 season?

Bueckers getting picked second wouldn’t be as big of a shock as the Luka Doncic trade from earlier in the year, but it would be surprising.

You can pretty much bet that Bueckers will be heading to Dallas, while Miles will be selected by Los Angeles with the second pick.

The UConn star may envy Miles on that score. The LA Sparks may have had the worst season in the league, but 2025 could provide them a chance for a major comeback. Cameron Brink, their star rookie, was out for almost all of last season with an ACL injury. She is set to return this year.

The Sparks also acquired star Aces guard Kelsey Plum (and former number-one draft pick). While most basketball fans are currently working on their March Madness betting strategy, these will be things to consider in the next month or so as the tournament ramps up.

Other teams to watch this season include the Fever and the Sky. Both franchises have restructured around their star rookies and are heading into the 2025 season with a much stronger roster than they’d had before.

Caitlin Clark fans learned last year, when the Fever were knocked out of the playoffs, that it takes more than a good draft pick to go far. But it sure helps.