The Athletic has launched a series of sports debates in which two writers break down a specific topic. In this edition, Sabreena Merchant and Ben Pickman debate which WNBA team will be the most dangerous in the playoffs. (Stats are before Wednesday night’s games.)
Sabreena Merchant: For the first time in three seasons, the WNBA has a new title favorite entering the postseason: the New York Liberty. They’ll have the best record in the league and have beaten each of the other top teams in the standings – the only squad in the WNBA to win against each of the other playoff teams. But even if the Liberty are the favorite on paper, that doesn’t mean they’re heading into the postseason with the most momentum. Ben, is New York the team you most wouldn’t want to play in the 2024 playoffs?
Ben Pickman: If it’s the team most likely to put a top-four seed on upset alert, I have to choose the Indiana Fever, right? Indiana has won nine of 11 contests since second-half play resumed and heading into Wednesday’s loss against the Aces, the Fever had a 6.1 net rating, the third-best mark in the league. Kelsey Mitchell is averaging 24.9 points per game (second-most since play resumed) on 49.7 percent shooting, while Caitlin Clark is third in scoring (24.7 points) and first in assists (9.3) since mid-August. The trio of Clark, Mitchell, and Aliyah Boston also looks as cohesive as they have been all season long.
Caitlin Clark puts this one on a rope to Aliyah Boston for the fast-break layup. #IndianaFever rookie has made these kind of next-level passes a regular occurrence.
Special vision.
“I’m definitely a high risk, high reward person,” CC said pregame. pic.twitter.com/WQtaXyemYu
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) September 6, 2024
Merchant: It’s interesting that you’re giving the Fever the best upset odds, when the fourth and fifth seeds likely will enter the playoffs in a dead heat, and that the team in the No. 5 spot could be the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces. But if the Aces hold onto home court advantage, I’m inclined to agree with you. The Fever have been more impressive than the Seattle Storm and the other potential playoff teams lately — and really since the disastrous first quarter of the season. The WNBA has never had a first-round upset in this current playoff format, but I’d be tempted to pick one this season once the bracket is set.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that Indiana is the scariest team in the field, though, does it? The playoffs aren’t a one-round event, after all.
Pickman: If I’m Ellie the Elephant (which I can confirm to you I am not), then the team I don’t want to see in the playoffs has to be the Aces. Yes, New York swept the season series against Las Vegas, with the first two games not particularly close, but Sunday’s four-point win has to create some pause. The short-handed Aces overcame a 20-point third-quarter deficit to take a late lead over New York in Brooklyn. The atmosphere inside Barclays Center felt a lot like Game 4 of last year’s Finals as New York’s offense grew increasingly stagnant as the game tightened. The Liberty shot only 11 percent from 3 in the second half. Even from my media seat on Sunday you could see that the Aces appeared to walk off the floor with an air of confidence (also with lots of frustration because of the late-game officiating). Though it feels dismissive to call New York’s first two wins warm-up games, the stakes of every game between high-level playoff teams feels more heightened now. Sunday’s matchup certainly had some extra juice, even with A’ja Wilson sidelined by illness.
God is so good! 🤍😩 Top Tier !! 🪜 pic.twitter.com/B9jcQ1p6Me
— A’ja Wilson (@_ajawilson22) September 12, 2024
Merchant: The Aces will have the best player on the floor (Wilson) every time they take the court in the playoffs, which is a luxury not usually enjoyed by the No. 4 seed. That will make it hard to pick against Las Vegas no matter the opponent. But it’s worth considering if the Aces are a bad matchup for the other contenders. The Liberty may have some scars from the 2023 postseason, but the Minnesota Lynx don’t. And after beating Las Vegas three times during this regular season, the Lynx might not be scared of this particular Aces squad. Considering their record against New York (2-1), Las Vegas (3-1), and Indiana (2-1), isn’t Minnesota the team you don’t want to see in these playoffs?
Pickman: The Lynx have been excellent all season, anchored by a defense that moves on a string every night. They limit opponents’ paint scoring and transition opportunities. They have depth and a star in Napheesa Collier who is capable of shaping a whole game around her skillset. I’m making the case for Minnesota, I see. Nevertheless, I also just don’t think the Lynx have as talented a roster as Las Vegas or New York, so I’m dubious to pick them.
Merchant: It’s interesting how much we’re anchored by our priors from the start of the year. Despite Las Vegas falling short of expectations time and time again during this regular season, it’s hard for either of us to dismiss the Aces’ postseason prospects on account of their historical track record. Meanwhile, the Lynx have proven themselves throughout 2024, including in the Commissioner’s Cup game, yet we’re reluctant to elevate them despite a statistical résumé that compares favorably with recent champions.
One thing I like about Minnesota is how much individual experience the Lynx have, even if this collective group is a little new. Coach Cheryl Reeve won four titles with a different iteration of the Lynx. Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman have been to the finals with Connecticut, and Kayla McBride with Las Vegas. They’re not exactly playoff neophytes.
HAVIN’ FUN & BALLIN’ OUT! pic.twitter.com/OH35FYhn6P
— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) September 11, 2024
Pickman: But there is also something to be said for a group growing together, like New York had losing in last year’s title or Las Vegas experienced by losing in the 2021 semifinals. Plus, Minnesota has lost its two matchups against Connecticut this season (they play again next Tuesday), so that doesn’t give me confidence in that likely 2-3 series either.
Merchant: Of course, that brings us back to the first team in this conversation … Indiana. If the Fever manage to knock out the Sun in the first round — they won their most recent game against Connecticut and have a better net rating over the last month — the Lynx wouldn’t have to worry about facing the Sun. The rock-paper-scissors problem reveals a bit of a flaw in our premise. Due to the specific challenges of each matchup, there is a different scariest team for every potential contender. New York would prefer to avoid Las Vegas, which wouldn’t want to face Minnesota, which can’t seem to beat Connecticut, which has struggled against New York.
Given that matchups figure to be of utmost importance, would it surprise you if any team engaged in some seeding shenanigans this final week? It’s not uncommon to see this in the NBA.
Pickman: In theory, New York is positioned to do so and could slide out of the Aces’ side of the draw with a few losses. However, it’s next to impossible to imagine them conceding home court advantage throughout the playoffs if that’s what avoiding Las Vegas will involve. Why would they?
Merchant: I’m not opposed to maneuvering in standings (case in point, I fully support tanking), but that’s usually for teams that are attempting to win one series. If you’re aiming for a title, eventually, you’ll have to beat everyone — so might as well put yourself in the strongest position (i.e. the No. 1 seed with home-court advantage) to make that happen.
For as well as the Lynx and Fever have played in the last month, New York still could be the answer to our original question. The Liberty could tie the WNBA record for single-season wins and they have two former MVPs playing as well as ever plus an all-WNBA season from Sabrina Ionescu. They should be the ones striking fear into their opponents, not the other way around.
(Photo of Jonquel Jones: Sam Hodde / Getty Images)
