Why Betting on MMA Is Different from Other Sports

Betting is never easy, but we can often fall into the same approach no matter the sport. The problem with that, though, is that it underestimates just how different MMA is. It’s a relatively new sport still with an adjusting audience (and therefore betting market), and is more individualized. 

The individual 

The adage of “styles make fights” is the foundational principle of MMA analysis. A fighter’s win-loss record often pales in importance when compared to the specific matchup at hand. The classic example being an incredible striker, like Leon Edwards, not having sufficient takedown defense. The result is a complete one-sided wrestling domination, even though Leon may otherwise be considered the better fighter in most aspects, and therefore bookies’ favorite.

MMA is wildly individual, and this means more of the data is concentrated on one person. This is more volatile, because they may simply be having a bad day at the office or struggling with illness. Compared to a team sport, many of the variables are more volatile. 

At the same time, some fighters are incredibly reliable in how they perform, and this can make them specifically less volatile. But, what needs to be remembered is that there is still a team element, and if the coach is known for specific game plans, these need to be taken into consideration. We need to mentally remember which fighters listen to their coaches and act in accordance to the plan, and which don’t, because that’s a very important way to measure predictability. Or, has a striker just spent the last 3 months training BJJ with Craig Jones? Because they may have a whole new skillset. Things change quickly in MMA.

Does data analysis work in MMA?

MMA betting requires a bit more depth than looking at a fighter’s record or form. Advanced metrics are certainly useful, like significant strikes landed per minute, striking defense percentage, takedown accuracy, and average submission attempts per 15 minutes. These help show whether a fighter is aggressive, prone to high volume (looks good on the judges score cards) yet fails to finish fights, and so on. Being a major promotion, UFC tracks a lot of data so UFC betting can get quick specific. For example, betting on specific rounds and method of victory can be useful, because you know that some fighters always go to a decision.

Tom Aspinall is perhaps the best example of how some fighters don’t have enough data to make informed decisions, other than the decision that the fight will be finished in the first round.

Embracing unpredictability and volatility

MMA is one of the most unpredictable sports, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It means that odds can often be good for an upset, because there’s always a puncher’s chance, like Leon’s head kick. Another example was Sean Strickland’s shocking victory over the heavily favored Israel Adesanya – this was an instance where Adesanya had no answers for Strickland’s constant pressure, which a viewer with strong striking knowledge may have foreseen.

Conclusion

Betting on baseball and the like are incredibly data-driven, in part because we can expect a team’s collective performance to have more inertia, momentum and stability. MMA, where your chosen fighter may be fighting with a broken toe from the offset, is more volatile. Therefore, it’s less about winning all of your bets and instead using your expertise when they arise, rather than forcing a data-driven approach of high-frequency betting.

Roberto Villa is the CEO, Founder, Executive Writer, Senior Editor of FightBook MMA. Has a passion for Combat Sports and also a podcast host for Sitting Ringside. He’s also a former MMA fighter and Kickboxer.

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