Why Paddy Pimblett Never Lost His Favorite Status For UFC 324 Showdown

The betting lines for UFC 324’s main event showed unusual stability, with Paddy Pimblett maintaining his position as favorite against Justin Gaethje from the moment odds opened until fight night. Bookmakers priced Pimblett between -210 and -239, giving him an implied win probability of 67 to 70 percent. Gaethje opened as a +175 to +195 underdog, with his probability of victory hovering around 33 to 36 percent.

UFC 324 Odds: The Market Never Doubted Paddy Pimblett

Pimblett’s grappling credentials drive the pricing. Ten of his professional wins came by submission, and oddsmakers installed him at 6/4 to 31/20 to finish Gaethje on the mat. Those numbers reflect a specific liability: Gaethje’s two submission losses to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira demonstrated his vulnerability when fights hit the floor. Pimblett averages 1.7 submissions per 15 minutes, and his ability to create scrambles from unconventional positions makes him dangerous once the fight leaves the feet. Check out more numbers and games at crash duel x slot.

This limited movement stands out for a championship fight, particularly one featuring a former interim champion against a rising contender. The market confidence stemmed from Pimblett’s perfect UFC record since his 2021 debut, where he compiled seven consecutive victories. His most recent performance, a TKO win over Michael Chandler, reinforced his standing as a legitimate title threat rather than a promotional project.​

Gaethje’s underdog status acknowledges his experience but also his recent trajectory. The 37-year-old holds nine Fight of the Night awards and twenty knockout victories, yet his 68 percent takedown defense leaves openings for skilled grapplers. He enters UFC 324 off a knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300, though he rebounded with a win over Rafael Fiziev. The market appears to weigh his age and mileage against Pimblett’s six-year youth advantage and momentum.

While Gaethje by knockout sits at 10/3 to 4/1, Pimblett’s submission line attracts more action at 6/4. Round betting shows bookmakers expect Pimblett to find success early and often: his Round 1 odds sit at 4/1, while Gaethje’s opening round knockout pays 10/1. These prices indicate the market expects Pimblett to dictate the terms of engagement, forcing Gaethje to defend takedowns and submission attempts rather than implementing his pressure striking.

The stability of these odds suggests bookmakers and sharp bettors reached consensus quickly. Unlike typical main events where lines shift based on public money or injury news, the UFC 324 headliner saw minimal adjustment. This consensus reflects a shared view that Pimblett’s undefeated UFC run, combined with Gaethje’s documented submission vulnerabilities, creates a clear favorite despite the challenger facing his toughest test to date.