WNBA 2026 Draft Lottery odds: Dallas Wings have best chance at No. 1 overall pick

The 2025 WNBA regular season has come to a close, which means it’s officially time for the lottery-bound teams to turn their attention to next season. That process begins with the 2026 WNBA Draft Lottery, which will determine the selection order for the subsequent draft.

The WNBA has not yet set a date for the draft lottery, the draft or any offseason event due to the ongoing labor battle between the league and the Women’s National Basketball Players Association over a new collective bargaining agreement. It remains unclear when the draft lottery will take place. In recent years, it has been in late November or early December. 

The league added its first expansion team since 2008 this season — the Golden State Valkyries, who qualified for the playoffs, becoming the first expansion team to do so in their inaugural season — but did not increase the number of playoff teams, which remains at eight. Thus, there are now five teams in the lottery. 

This year’s lottery crew is the Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun, Dallas Wings, Los Angeles Sparks and Washington Mystics, but those will not be the five teams actually drafting in the lottery. 

The Sky owe their first-round pick to the Minnesota Lynx and the Sparks owe their first-round pick to the Seattle Storm. In addition, the Sun owe swap rights to their first-round pick to the Sky. Because the Sky also own the Phoenix Mercury’s first-rounder, the Sky will get the more favorable of the Sun/Mercury picks, while the Sun will get the least favorable of those selections. With the Sun in the lottery and the Mercury in the playoffs, the Sky are guaranteed to receive the Sun’s pick. 

Lottery odds are based on the team that originally owns the pick. As a reminder, the WNBA calculates lottery odds based on the combined records of the past two seasons. 

Wings

19-65 

40%

Sky (owe to Lynx)

23-61

25%

Sparks (owe to Storm)

29-55

17%

Mystics

30-54

11%

Sun (owe to Sky)

39-45

7%

The Wings won the No. 1 pick last year and used it to take Paige Bueckers, who will likely be the unanimous Rookie of the Year. Despite her best efforts, this season was a disaster in Dallas. Arike Ogunbowale played well below her usual standards and the team was beset by injuries. The Wings made two midseason trades — NaLyssa Smith to the Las Vegas Aces for a 2027 first-round pick and DiJonai Carrington to the Lynx for Diamond Miller and a 2027 second-round pick — to add future assets and tank. After setting the single-season losses record with 34, they have best odds at the No. 1 pick (40%). 

The Sky had the No. 3 pick last year, but traded it, along with a 2027 first-round swap, to the Mystics for Ariel Atkins in a win-now move that backfired spectacularly. Injuries, poor play from veterans and off-court drama has left the Sky in the lottery for the second consecutive season — only this time, they owe their pick to the Lynx via a previous trade and could give away the No. 1 overall pick. Their only saving grace is that the Sun were forced into a rebuild and they have swap rights for Connecticut’s pick, so they’ll still wind up with a lottery selection. 

The Sparks got the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft, but decided to trade it to the Storm in a blockbuster deal that brought back All-Star guard Kelsey Plum and the No. 9 pick (Sarah Ashlee Barker). Los Angeles brass hoped Plum and new coach Lynne Roberts could get them back to the postseason for the first time since 2020. Instead, they got off to a 6-14 start due to injuries and poor defense that proved too much to overcome. The Storm went 15-9 over the last two months, in part thanks to the return of Cameron Brink, but were eliminated from the playoffs on Tuesday for the fifth consecutive season. They owe the Storm their pick as part of the Plum trade. 

The Mystics had the Nos. 3, 4 and 6 picks in the 2024 draft and used those selections to add Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen and Georgia Amoore. While Amoore missed the entire season due to an ACL injury, Citron and Iriafen were fantastic. They were almost too good, in fact, as the Mystics remained in the playoff race for much longer than anyone expected. Eventually, after trading Brittney Sykes for yet another first-round pick, the Mystics faded into lottery position for the second consecutive season. Due to a series of trades, they will again have three first-round picks: their own lottery selection, the Storm’s and the New York Liberty’s. 

The Sun had to hit the reset button last offseason after a mass exodus from Uncasville. Among those leaving town were Alyssa Thomas, Brionna Jones, DeWanna Bonner and coach Stephanie White. As expected, the Sun missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. They do not own their own first-round pick this year, however, as they owe the Sky swap rights via the Marina Mabrey deal. And because the Sky also own the Mercury’s first rounder, the Sky will get the more favorable of the Sun/Mercury picks, while the Sun will get the least favorable of those selections. The Mercury pick the Sun will receive will be No. 12 overall — better than nothing, but not the lottery pick a rebuilding team needs.