WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets Dream-Aces, Mercury-Valkyries, Ionescu)

After a league-wide off day on Monday, the WNBA returns with five matchups on Tuesday night and a ton of playoff implications to dive into.

The Las Vegas Aces and Atlanta Dream headline Tuesday’s slate, as the Aces have won seven games in a row and are just 1.5 games back of Atlanta (the No. 2 seed) at this point in the season.

That’s not the only battle between top-five teams on Tuesday, as the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx will battle for the third time in a month to kick off the night’s action. New York is the No. 3 seed in the standings, and it has struggled without Breanna Stewart – especially against the Lynx. 

Plus, playoff-caliber teams like the Seattle Storm (facing the Chicago Sky), Phoenix Mercury, and Golden State Valkyries (Phoenix faces Golden State) will all be in action tonight, with each win meaning a ton in the battle for the top-eight seeds in the league.

I’m eyeing three of these games for my best bets, including a player prop for Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu.

Let’s dive into each play for a loaded day in the W!

Find Peter Dewey’s WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-142) vs. Atlanta Dream

The Aces started the season slowly, but they’ve gotten red hot at the right time, winning seven games in a row and nine of their last 10 to pull within 1.5 games of the No. 2 seed. 

With A’ja Wilson playing at an MVP level – she’s averaging over 26 points and 13 rebounds per game during this seven-game streak – the Aces are going to be tough to stop, especially at home.

This season, Las Vegas is 12-5 at Michelob Ultra Arena and just 9-9 on the road. 

Now, Atlanta has been impressive all season long, but I’m worried about the Dream on the road with guard Jordin Canada out of the lineup. Canada is dealing with a hamstring injury, and losing her certainly wakes the Dream attack a bit. 

These teams are No. 2 (Atlanta) and No. 3 (Las Vegas) in net rating over their last 10 games, but the Aces’ numbers at home (+3.7 net rating, third in offensive rating) are too enticing to pass up.

I think they will extend the winning streak to eight games on Tuesday night.  

Phoenix Mercury-Golden State Valkyries UNDER 156 (-110)

Two of the top four defensive teams in the WNBA face off on Tuesday night, and I’m buying them to play a low-scoring affair.

The Mercury (No. 2 in defensive rating) and the Valkyries (No. 4 in defensive rating) have both hit the UNDER in the majority of their games this season, with the Valkyries posting a league-best 21 games that have gone UNDER the total.

Golden State plays at the slowest pace in the WNBA, and the team’s offense has fallen off since All-Star Kayla Thornton went out for the season with an injury. Golden State has scored 80 or more points just three times since the All-Star break.

These teams played back on July 14 and combined for 155 points, but Golden State has gone OVER 156 points in just four games since then.

Phoenix (No. 2 in pace) does like to push the ball, but I doubt Phoenix allows enough points for this game to go over 156 combined points. These teams both rank in the top four in the W in opponent points per game in 2025. 

Sabrina Ionescu UNDER 17.5 Points (-130)

This season, Ionescu is averaging 19.2 points per game while shooting 40.3 percent from the field and 30.6 percent from beyond the arc.

The star guard is one of the better shooters in the WNBA, but she’s been marred in an awful shooting slump as of late, hitting just 32.9 percent of her shots over her last six games.

During that stretch, Ionescu has played the Lynx twice, shooting 4-for-15 and 5-for-16 from the field while scoring 10 and 13 points. In fact, she’s cleared 17.5 points just one time during this six-game stretch.

Minnesota is No. 1 in the W in defensive rating and in opponent points per game this season. With Stewart out, I have a hard time betting on Ionescu to clear this total, with most of the defensive attention focused on slowing her down.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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