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A trip to the WNBA Finals is on the line on Tuesday night, as the Indiana Fever have forced a winner-take-all Game 5 against the Las Vegas Aces.
The Aces have been an elite team at home in the 2025 season, going 17-5 during the regular season, but they did lose Game 1 of this series at Michelob Ultra Arena. So, the Fever – who are eight-point underdogs in Game 5 – are certainly still in this series.
Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston combined for 49 points at home in Game 4, but can they hold off MVP A’ja Wilson and company in this matchup?
The winner will play the Phoenix Mercury, who upset the Minnesota Lynx in the WNBA Semifinals (partially due to a Napheesa Collier injury), in the Finals.
Here’s a breakdown of my best bets for Tuesday night’s Game 5.
Find Peter Dewey’s WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Aliyah Boston OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-105)
Aliyah Boston has been terrific on the glass in the playoffs for Indiana, and that’s a big reason why the team ranks No. 1 amongst playoff teams in rebounding percentage.
The Aces, on the other hand, are just seventh out of eight teams in rebounding percentage.
Boston is averaging 10.7 boards per game this postseason, picking up 11 or more rebounds in five of her seven games. She’s put up 11, 13, eight and 14 boards against the Aces, and I expect another big game on Tuesday night.
The Fever should give both Boston and Mitchell all the minutes they can handle after they carried them in Game 4, and Boston has cleared this prop in every game where she’s eclipsed 30 minutes this postseason.
A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-110)
Of course I’m going to bet on the league MVP in a win-or-go-home game.
In Game 3 against the Seattle Storm in the first round, Wilson put the Aces on her back, scoring 38 of the team’s 74 points while shooting 14-for-26 from the field.
In the playoffs, Wilson is averaging 24.7 points on 20.0 shots per game, giving her a terrific floor when it comes to this market. Against Indiana, Wilson has attempted at least 18 shots in every game and 20 or more shots in three of them.
She’s also put up 16, 25, 13 and 31 points in this series. While she’s going to need to have one of her best games to clear this line, I expect Wilson to get all the shots she can handle with Las Vegas’ season on the line.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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