WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mercury-Lynx, Mystics-Fever, Collier

The WNBA returns after an off day on Monday with a trio of Commissioner’s Cup games on Tuesday night. 

Eight teams played Commissioner’s Cup matchups on Sunday, with the New York Liberty, Minnesota Lynx, Phoenix Mercury, and Las Vegas Aces all coming away with wins. Now, the Mercury and Lynx are one of three matchups on Tuesday night.

The action on Tuesday begins on NBA TV with the Indiana Fever, who still won’t have Caitlin Clark (quad) in action, taking on the Washington Mystics for the second time this season.

Washington took the last meeting between these two teams in Clark’s first game out of the lineup. 

Later in the night, the Mercury and Lynx face off for the second time in the 2025 campaign before the Dallas Wings and Seattle Storm close out the night on ESPN. Unfortunately, No. 1 overall pick Paige Bueckers (concussion protocol) will not be in action on Tuesday night for Dallas.

Still, I have a few best bets for the night’s action, including a pick for Napheesa Collier, who has been on a tear to open the season for the Lynx. 

Find Peter Dewey’s WNBA betting record here. You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Phoenix Mercury +10.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Lynx

The Mercury kept things close with the Lynx in their last meeting (Collier did not play), and I think they’re a little undervalued as 10.5-point dogs on Tuesday.

The Lynx are struggling against the spread at home this season (0-3), and while they have yet to lose a game, they haven’t done a great job covering as massive favorites. Most recently, they failed to cover against the Golden State Valkyries with Collier back in the lineup.

Phoenix is shorthanded at the moment with Natasha Mack and Kahleah Copper injured, but it ranks fourth in the WNBA in net rating and second in defensive rating, allowing it to stay in games.

The additions of Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas has raised the Mercury’s ceiling, and they are an impressive 4-2 against the spread and 2-1 ATS as underdogs. 

While the Lynx have the second-best net rating in the W, I’m not sold on them blowing out the Mercury in a Commissioner’s Cup game, especially if Thomas is back in the lineup. 

Washington Mystics +4 (-112) vs. Indiana Fever

Are we sure that the Clark-less Fever should be favored in this matchup?

Indiana is 0-2 since the star guard went down with a quad injury, and Kelsey Mitchell has struggled shooting the ball (8-for-31 from the field) during that stretch. The Fever thrives on the offensive end (fifth in offensive rating), but a lot of that is tied to Clark’s impressive shot-making and elite passing.

With the star guard out and Sophie Cunningham and Sydney Colson both on the injury report, the Fever could be in trouble in this matchup.

The Mystics, on the other hand, are 3-4 straight up this season and 3-2 against the spread as underdogs. Washington has a solid young core led by Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, and Brittney Sykes has played at an All-Star level early on this season.

Washington already beat the Fever as an underdog last Wednesday, and it enters this game with the No. 5 defense in the WNBA.

I think this spread is a little too wide – even with the Fever at home. 

Napheesa Collier OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-114)

This season, Collier is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game, but she’s picked up double-digit boards in three straight contests. 

The Lynx star did not play in the most recent matchup between these teams, but this is a great matchup for her, as the Mercury ranks 11th out of 13 teams in the WNBA in rebounding percentage. 

Plus, forward Alyssa Thomas has been banged up for the Mercury, missing their last game. So, if she sits again, Collier could have a pretty solid path to a double-digit rebounding game. Last season, the MVP candidate averaged 9.7 rebounds per game, a career-high.

I expect her to continue to push her season average in 2025 in that direction on Tuesday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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