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Friday’s WNBA Commissioner’s Cup action features a surging Atlanta Dream team looking to move to 4-1 at home this season and some struggling squads that want to get back on track.
Atlanta is taking on the Chicago Sky and Angel Reese, but the Dream are heavily favored at home with Chicago failing to pick up a win against any team but the 1-10 Dallas Wings so far in 2025.
Speaking of the Wings, they got Paige Bueckers back in the lineup on Wednesday, and she dropped 35 points. Unfortunately, the Wings still lost to the Phoenix Mercury and are major underdogs on Friday against the Las Vegas Aces.
The Aces have dropped back-to-back games, losing to the Los Angeles Sparks on Wednesday, and A’ja Wilson left that game early with a head injury.
On Friday, I’m betting on a side for both of these games, as the Commissioner’s Cup standings continue to round into form.
Find Peter Dewey’s WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Atlanta Dream -8.5 (-115) vs. Chicago Sky
The Sky are nearly impossible to trust right now from a betting perspective, as they have a net rating of -17.1 this season and rank 12th out of 13 teams in both offensive and defensive rating.
With Courtney Vandersloot done for the season, the Sky have less veteran leadership to lean on in what has already been a tough 2025 season.
Chicago is 3-5 against the spread this season, and it has five losses by double digits. In fact, Chicago’s only two wins have come against the Dallas Wings, who have one of the worst records in the W this season and lost nine of their first 10 games of the campaign.
Atlanta, on the other hand, is an impressive 6-3 against the spread and is looking like a serious playoff contender with Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones leading the way. The recent return of Jordin Canada only adds more firepower to this Atlanta attack which ranks third in the W in offensive rating.
The Dream have a net rating of +5.9 this season (fourth in the WNBA), a pretty start difference from where the Sky are early in the season.
I’ll lay the points with the Dream at home as they look to move to 4-1.
Dallas Wings +9 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Aces
The Wings have not been a profitable team to bet on this season, going 3-8 against the spread, but I’m going to back them as road underdogs with Wilson’s status for Friday night up in the air.
Bueckers’ return to the lineup was a massive boost for Dallas, as she gave the team some consistency on offense, something that has been lacking from star guard Arike Ogunbowale, who is shooting just 33.7 percent from the field and was 2-for-10 in Wednesday’s loss.
The Aces enter this game at 3-5 against the spread, and they’re just ninth in the WNBA in net rating at -2.8. That could get even worse if Wilson has to miss any time, as the Aces haven’t gotten much from offseason acquisition Jewell Loyd.
This season, Loyd is shooting a dreadful 29.9 percent from the field while averaging just 9.1 points per game. The Aces have to be regretting letting Kelsey Plum go, who is off to an awesome start with the Sparks in the 2025 season.
The Wings have a worse net rating than the Aces (-8.0), but I can’t trust this Las Vegas team to beat anyone by double digits right now, especially if Wilson is out.
The Aces have dropped three of their last five games, losing by 20 to the Seattle Storm and 27 to the Golden State Valkyries in the process.
Dallas should be able to hang around as long as Bueckers is in the lineup.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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