WNBA: Can Alyssa Thomas and the Mercury take Game 1 of the Finals?

The 2025 WNBA Finals are set to begin on Friday, October 3 with the No. 2-seed Las Vegas Aces hosting the No. 4-seed Phoenix Mercury in Las Vegas. The Mercury got here by beating the No. 5-seed New York Liberty, and the heavy favorites, the No. 1-seed Minnesota Lynx. The Aces, punched their ticket to the show by defeating the No. 7-seed Seattle Storm and the No. 6-seed Indiana Fever.

Phoenix will have its hands full taking on the favorites in Las Vegas. The Aces are flirting with a dynasty, making their third WNBA Finals appearance in four years. With four-time MVP A’ja Wilson in charge and an elite guard in Jackie Young, they’ll be a tough matchup for the Mercury.

However, even an elite team like the Aces can fall, and here’s how the Mercury can win Game 1 and get closer to their first title since 2014.

Alyssa Thomas for the win

Alyssa Thomas was an MVP candidate, finishing third behind Napheesa Collier and Wilson. She already beat the Lynx, and if she does the same to the Aces, Thomas will win what matters most: the WNBA title.

To get that done, she’ll have to dominate in all phases of the game. Fortunately, that’s something that’s routine for her, especially in the playoffs.

That starts with continuing to be a great distributor. Thomas is averaging 9.1 assists per game in the playoffs, which is more than anyone else. Her rebounding has also been a key to the Mercury’s success. Thomas is grabbing 8.4 rebounds in the postseason. The only player left playing with more boards per game in these playoffs is Wilson with 9.1 per contest.

Thomas’ unselfish play, however, can sometimes be to her detriment. She looks for her teammates so much that she forgets that she has the best mismatch. Thomas is averaging 18.6 points per game, but in Phoenix’s most recent series, they won every game where she scored 19 or more. The one time she scored 18, they lost. So, Thomas needs to stay aggressive offensively if Phoenix is going to pull off the upset.

This could be the moment Thomas wins her first WNBA championship. In her storied career, she has advanced to the Finals twice in 2019 and 2022, but has lost both times. If she plays her best and her teammates follow suit, this could be the moment she crosses that accomplishment off her list.

Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper have to stay in top form

Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally have filled out the rest of the Mercury’s “Big 3” and were huge against Minnesota. Sabally averaged 19.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game against the Lynx, and Copper ended the series averaging 16 points per game.

With Thomas in the post, Copper on the perimeter and Sabally elevating her game to another level, Phoenix has been able to surprise opponents and onlookers with their play. That will have to continue the rest of the way if the Mercury want to beat the Aces.

Las Vegas is a ferocious team. They have the best team shooting percentage in these playoffs at 48.5 percent, and their 8.6 steals and 5.6 blocks are also postseason bests. With such a potent offense and an impenetrable defense, basketball perfection has to occur to beat them in a series. Luckily, the Mercury have the personnel to do it.

It starts on Friday. And if they can steal Game 1, that will go a long way to tipping the series in their favor. To make that happen, AT needs to be MVP, Sabally needs to keep up her form and Copper needs to stay energetic and bring that swagger she’s known for. Add in winning the rebounding battle and containing Young as much as possible, and suddenly, the Aces don’t look inevitable; they are beatable.

Let’s see if the Mercury can get it done or if the Aces strike first in this seven-game excursion that’ll crown the league’s new champion.

No. 4-seed Phoenix Mercury (0-0) vs. No. 2-seed Las Vegas Aces (0-0)