WNBA: Can the Connecticut Sun score enough to win a championship?

In their 11 games since the Olympic break, the Connecticut Sun are 7-4, a solid record that most teams would sign up for, but, in context with their 12-1 start to the season, below the standard expected from this squad. On Sunday, Connecticut avoided their first three-game losing streak of the season, defeating the Sparks 79-67 in Los Angeles.

Prior to Sunday, the Sun had struggled to put the ball in the basket of late, scoring 64 and 67 points, respectively, in consecutive home losses to the Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces. The cliché is, “Defense wins championships.” But for the Sun’s top-ranked defense (94.5 defensive rating) to deliver the franchise’s first title to Uncasville, the team must establish a baseline level of offensive consistency. Can they make that happen?

Two potential players stand out as particularly determinative: Marina Mabrey and Alyssa Thomas.

Mabrey, Mabrey not

The midseason acquisition of Marina Mabrey was intended to alleviate Connecticut’s offensive woes. And it is working. Sort of.

In the 11 games Mabrey has played, the Sun have an offensive rating of 100.7 when she is on the court, the best mark on the team. She is also tops in plus/minus, with the Sun outscoring opponents by 57 points in her almost 300 minutes in a Connecticut uniform. The scoring-focused sixth player role, in short, has suited her well.

However, it is possible the effectiveness of the Sun’s offensive attack has become too dependent on Mabrey’s efficiency. Considering she is a streaky scorer, that is a dangerous proposition for a team with championship ambitions. Mabrey has shot 40 percent or below from the field in five of her 11 games with the Sun. That’s not necessarily surprising. Yet, Sunday’s game—against a Sparks team that is officially eliminated from playoff contention—was the first time the Sun scored more than 70 points when Mabrey has turned in a subpar shooting performance. Connecticut also had lost three of the four prior games when Mabrey’s shot was not falling.

This data does not mean the losses are Mabrey’s fault; that’s far from the truth. Rather, the Sun need to develop reliable offensive alternatives so that the team can achieve scoring success even when Mabrey is not on a heater.

The AT issue

In the halfcourt, generating consistent offense through other means has become a challenge because of Alyssa Thomas. Yes, she is “The Engine,” the hard-charging heart and soul of the Sun. On Sunday, she turned in a classic AT triple-double, her third of the season. Thomas captained Connecticut with 12 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. The Sun also won her minutes by a game-best 22 points.

Before the game against lowly Los Angeles, Thomas was too often looking like an offensive liability. Opponents’ increasing willingness to sag off her in halfcourt possessions—knowing she has two torn labrums and will not shoot—has become a glaring problem that stunts the Sun’s attack. Thomas, in turn, resorts to driving headlong into a crowded paint or moving the ball to reset the possession, which then requires the Sun to find an offensive option with a shortened shot clock. Before Sunday’s game, Connecticut had been outscored in her minutes since the Olympic break. Likewise, the Sun’s offensive rating was a team-low 95.5 during Thomas’ post-break court time. While Sunday’s win rectified those statistics, it doesn’t mean that the underlying issues have been solved. (As our Sparks’ expert Edwin Garcia recently wrote, “[T]he Sparks are only playing because they have to.” So, overly weighing games against LA, especially for teams with title aspirations, seems unwise.)

In transition, Thomas remains a terror, quickly turning defensive stops into offensive scores through her propulsive playmaking. But in the crucible of the postseason, transition opportunities tend to wane, putting greater priority on generating halfcourt offense against a set defense. Thomas is still a positive player, and sending her to the sideline, certainly, is not a smart solution. However, to achieve their goals, head coach Stephanie White and company have to proactively address the halfcourt offensive limitations that come with Thomas’ many (many, many) positives.

Five games remain for the Sun to experiment and evolve, beginning with another game against the Sparks in LA on Tuesday, Sept. 10 (10 p.m. ET, League Pass). After that, they meet the Mercury in Phoenix on Friday, Sept. 13 (10 p.m. ET, ION) before finishing off their four-game road trip in Vegas against the Aces on Sunday, Sept. 15 (6 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network).