WNBA: Can the Dream steal a game vs. the top-seeded Liberty?

After an all-out sprint between the Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky to capture the No. 8 seed, the Dream (15-25) snuck into the back end of the 2024 WNBA playoffs on a photo finish. They bested the New York Liberty (32-8) on Thursday to secure their berth, and have since been rewarded with a hasty rematch.

The Dream are looking for their first playoff win since 2018. Last year, they were shut out in the first round by a No. 4-seed Dallas Wings team who went quiet in the semifinals. The previous four years, Atlanta failed to qualify for the postseason. The Liberty have their eyes on a bigger prize. Since losing in the 2023 WNBA Finals, New York has been out for vengeance.

The latest playoff format has only been used for two years, but eighth seeds have yet to win a game—let alone a series—against top seeds. Atlanta survived a bumpy regular season, but making history is a different monster. The New York Liberty are a different monster.

Can Atlanta find an edge?

Atlanta is streaky, but they haven’t shown enough to project themselves as competitors in the face of a generational Liberty roster. The Dream started the year at 7-9 before wilting under an eight-game losing streak. They’ve dropped winnable games to unimpressive opponents, and routinely struggled to compete with playoff teams. Atlanta has a 5-17 record against teams over .500 this season.

The Dream champion a respectable defense, but their counter attack is nonexistent. It’s impressive they’re seeing the postseason at all, with the league’s second-worst offense. While Atlanta only shoots 30.8 percent from behind the arc, many of their struggles are rooted in a lack of needle-moving interior play. Guards Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray can keep pace with the league’s best scorers, but 35-year-old center Tina Charles has lost a step when it comes to post physicality. Her face-up game is as pure as ever, but the Dream need to put pressure on Jonquel Jones in order to force Liberty defenders to help. Without feeling threatened inside, the Liberty can stay locked to shooters, minimizing opportunities for high-quality shots.

Sniffing out potential playoff X-factors on the Dream is puzzling. Jordin Canada had a phenomenal year, but she’s never been prone to offensive explosion. Canada averages 10 points and six assists, but has only scored more than 15 points three times this season. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus was ruled out with an ankle injury for the remainder of the regular season in early September; Aerial Powers likewise was sidelined for the season with a calf injury. The team hasn’t yet announced if they will return for the playoffs.

A talent disparity isn’t the only factor working against Atlanta. Since adopting the current three-game series format for the first round of the playoffs in 2022, each of the first two games are played in the higher-seeded team’s arena. The Dream will travel to Brooklyn, needing to steal a game in the thunderous Barclays Center if they want to force a Game 3 in Atlanta.

A small stop on New York’s revenge tour

New York may have dropped their final regular-season game to Atlanta, but adversity has been held to a historic minimum. Thirty two wins, which they have now achieved in back-to-back seasons, is the second-highest single season total in WNBA history.

Credit, whether or not deserved, will be expectedly consigned to the trio of Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. However, the greatest compliment that can be given to this Liberty roster is that they are insured. Most teams collapse under the failures of their heliocentric stars when they have an off-night. For the Liberty, it seems to make no difference. They’ve won by 20 in games where Ionescu barely pitched in five points. Stewart is shooting a career low from 3, by a wide margin, and it has made no tangible difference to team success. Players tucked in the Liberty bench rotation like Leonie Fiebich and Kayla Thornton would be starters on most teams in the league.

It’s tempting to say that New York’s tunnel vision for the Finals could lead to some first-round oversight, but the reality is that it just doesn’t seem to matter. Head Coach Sandy Brondello has been steering this core group for two years, but they play like they’ve been together since birth. Sparing Nyara Sabally, ever single player on the roster can make a 3 if left open. Jones is the prototypical stretch-five that general manager’s would sell their soul to sign. Atlanta knows how to defend, but what is their win condition? Who do they afford the most attention, and who are they willing to let work against single coverage? Guarding New York’s finest feels less like a chess match, and more like spending your last ten dollars on a lottery ticket. Just pray something goes right.

Atlanta couldn’t scope out an Achilles heel in their lone win against New York on Thursday. Some of the Liberty starters were pulled about half way through the game, and preparation for a mostly meaningless regular-season finale is incomparable to a three-game playoff series. The Dream have until Sunday to theorize a plan. They could be stingy with help defense, and leave the fate of the series up to isolation stops. They could do the opposite, collapsing in on drives while forfeiting 3s and hoping they don’t fall. There will never be a “correct” answer. That’s why New York is a No. 1 seed, and why Atlanta is No. 8.

With all that being said, nothing is impossible. The playoff format can theoretically work in Atlanta’s favor if they’re able to force a Game 3. Bringing the Liberty down South for a winner-take-all elimination game would shift the energy of both teams. The hardest part will be getting back to Atlanta. If the Dream are able to somehow steal a game under the Brooklyn lights, New York could be facing an early exit.

No. 1-seed New York Liberty (32-8) vs. No. 8-seed Atlanta Dream (15-25)

Game 1: Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty

When: Sunday, Sept. 22 at 1 p.m. ET

Where: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY

How to watch: ESPN

Game 2: Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty

When: Tuesday, Sept. 24 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Where: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY

How to watch: ESPN

Game 3 (if necessary): New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream

When: Thursday, Sept. 27 ( time TBD)

Where: Gateway Center Arena at College Park in Atlanta, GA

How to watch: ESPN2