The WNBA has entered the All-Star and Olympic break, and games won’t resume until Aug. 15, leaving some teams time to get healthy, and others time to rest up for the stretch run.
While many WNBA stars are competing in the Paris Olympics and are focused on winning a gold medal, there is still another massive focus on winning a WNBA title.
The WNBA standings are extremely close so far in 2024, as the top five teams are separated by just 4.5 games with the New York Liberty leading the way with a 21-4 record. They’re followed by the Connecticut Sun (2.5 games back), Minnesota Lynx, Seattle Storm, and Las Vegas Aces.
Despite Las Vegas sitting in the No. 5 seed, oddsmakers still view the back-to-back champions as the favorite to win the title this season with the Liberty as a close second.
If you’re looking to place a WNBA future during the Olympic break, here’s what you need to know about each of the contenders.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Aces have shown that they have the core — A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray — to win a title, but there’s no doubt that they haven’t been as dominant in 2024.
Part of that has to do with Gray’s injury that caused her to miss the start of the 2024 season, but Las Vegas ranks just fifth overall in net and defensive rating while also shockingly struggling at home (8-5 straight up).
Since Gray has returned, the Aces are 10-2 straight up, looking a lot more like a team that is a true title contender. Wilson is undoubtedly the league MVP at this point in the season (27.2 points, 12.0 rebounds per game), and the Aces have the championship pedigree many of these teams lack.
While the path to the playoffs could be tougher if the Aces can’t climb up the standings, they are just half a game back of the No. 3 seed and two games back of the No. 2 seed. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them as a top-three team by the end of the regular season.
After losing to the Aces in the WNBA Finals last season, the Liberty have been on a mission in 2024, going 12-1 at home and 9-1 in their last 10 games to open up a multi-game lead in the standings.
The Liberty rank No. 1 in the league in net rating at +11.8, well ahead of the No. 2 team — the Connecticut Sun — at +8.7. Not only is New York No. 1 in offensive rating, but it is also No. 4 in defensive rating, No .1 in effective field goal percentage, and No. 1 in point differential in 2024.
New York would likely be the favorite if it wasn’t for Las Vegas’ last two title wins, which gives it a little bit of value at +170. If New York can hold on to the No. 1 seed, it would have home court in the playoffs, a huge help since it has just one home loss all season.
With Sabrina Ionescu heating up ahead of the All-Star break, the Liberty have a dangerous trio of her, Breanna Stewart, and Jonquel Jones that could compete with any team in the W.
The “second-tier contenders” based on the odds are the Seattle Storm, Minnesota Lynx, and Connecticut Sun, according to oddsmakers.
Connecticut is the team that I’d consider betting the most in this group, as it plays elite defense (No. 2 in defensive rating) and just added Marina Mabrey to the roster in a trade with the Chicago Sky. The Sun also have a ton of experienced veterans — led by Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner — that will help them in the playoffs.
But why Connecticut over these other teams?
Well, Minnesota is dealing with an injury scare to star Napheesa Collier, and while she looks to be good for the Olympics, the Lynx were exposed a bit when she was out of the lineup. This is a younger team that has taken a major leap, but I don’t know if it will knock out Vegas or New York in a playoff series.
As for the Storm, my concern lies on the offensive end. Seattle is 10th in the W in effective field goal percentage, and star Jewell Loyd is shooting just 36.2 percent from the field and 26.1 percent from 3 this season. That simply won’t get it done in a series against the best teams in the league.
I think Connecticut is the team that is best equipped out of this group to win a title, unless Loyd figures things out down the stretch. Seattle’s star trio of Loyd, Nneka Ogwumike, and Skylar Diggins-Smith is intriguing, but they all need to be clicking for it to truly be a Finals contender.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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